North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola drops with soyoil

Source: Canadian Cattlemen

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, March 25 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Thursday, as sharp losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil spilled over to weigh on values.

Speculative fund profit-taking contributed to the declines in canola, although activity was described as choppy and volatile by participants.

The underlying fundamentals of tight old crop supplies remained supportive, with weakness in the Canadian dollar on Thursday also tempering the declines in canola.

About 18,585 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 24,012 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 9,236 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Thursday, posting losses for the first time in five sessions. Broad strength in the United States dollar internationally, losses in crude oil, and resulting weakness in vegetable oils all contributed to the selling pressure in soybeans.

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 101,000 tonnes of old crop business and 65,000 tonnes for the new crop came in at the lower end of trade expectations.

The International Grains Council released their first estimates for world crop production in the upcoming 2021/22 season, predicting world soybean production of 383 million tonnes which would be up by 22 million tonnes on the year.

The US Department of Agriculture’s planting intentions report will be released March 31, and pre-report positioning accounted for some of the activity.

CORN moved down in sympathy with soybeans and wheat. Weekly U.S. corn export sales of 4.48 million tonnes were massive, but expected after the daily reports last week showed China making large purchases.

The IGC predicted record world grain production in 2021/22 of 2.287 billion tonnes. Of that total, corn production is forecast at 1.193 billion tonnes, up by 54 million tonnes on the year. Wheat is pegged at 790 million tonnes, up from from 774 in the current year

WHEAT futures were lower on the day, as the nearby path of least resistance remains pointed down. In addition to the favourable 2021/22 world crop prospects from the IGC, improving moisture conditions in a number of major wheat growing regions also weighed on prices.

The strength in the U.S. dollar internationally was another bearish influence on wheat.