High price increases on input costs such as electricity, fertilizer, and chemicals continue. Fertilizer prices are especially worrisome for Turkish producers, with a 60-90 percent increase in the last marketing year. In MY 2020/21, orange production is estimated to decrease 1.3 million MT, which is 23 percent lower than MY 2019/20 (1.7 million MT), due to excessive hot weather conditions in May 2020 during the blooming period of trees. In MY 2020/21, orange exports are forecast to decrease 10 percent to 263,000 MT when compared with the previous season, in correlation with low yield expectation. In MY 2020/21, Post revises tangerine production forecast to increase 14 percent to 1.6 million MT with good harvest quality due to the favorable timing of rains and temperatures. Turkish tangerine exports started well in MY 2020/21 for exports mostly to Russia, Ukraine, and Iraq and reached 890, 595 MT as of April 2021, which is 8 percent higher than the same period of the previous season.
Consumption
In MY 2020/21, orange consumption is expected to decrease to 976,000 MT in correlation with low production expectations. Consumption has been decreasing for the last three years due to low supply and high market prices. Although consumption temporarily rose during winter of MY 2020/21 due to COVID-19, it is expected to be lower than the previous year due to lower supply and higher prices. Consumption has also been negatively affected by the closure of restaurants, cafes, and pubs during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Image: USDA
Trade
In MY 2020/21, orange exports are forecast to decrease 10 percent to 263,000 MT when compared with the previous season, in correlation with low yield expectation. Total orange exports in the first six months of MY 2020/21 dropped 24 percent when compared with the same period of MY 2019/20. Russia is the biggest market for orange exports from Turkey; exports to Russia in the first six months of MY 2020/21 remained stable with the same period of MY 2019/20. However, orange export to Iraq, which is the second biggest export market for Turkey, dropped 45 percent when compared with the same period of MY 2019/20.