By Caribbean News Global contributor
KINGSTON, Jamaica, (PIOJ News) – The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) presents preliminary estimates on economic performance for each quarter. This is based on early information provided by major data providers, reports director general of PIOJ, Dr Wayne Henry.
“The provision of preliminary estimates is consistent with trends in modern economies globally, where it is the common practice to release a 1st, 2nd and even a 3rd preliminary estimate, before the final figures are provided.”
The PIOJ releases the preliminary growth estimate approximately six weeks following the end of the quarter being reviewed, while STATIN releases the official figures at the end of the 3rd month following the end of the quarter.
“Various stakeholders, including our International development partners, the private sector, as well as the government, use the preliminary data to inform critical planning and policy-related decisions. Today, we are reporting that the Jamaican economy remained relatively flat, recording an estimated growth of 0.1% compared with the corresponding quarter, April to June 2023,” said PIOJ, Dr Henry, overview of the current economic context.
“The outturn for the review quarter largely reflected the normalization of performances of most industries following the return to pre-COVID-19 levels of output in 2023. Specifically, the performance mainly reflected the estimated downturns in the Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repair and Installation of Machinery; and Construction industries, as well as a slowing in the pace of growth in most other industries.
The main factors influencing the performance during the review quarter included:
– A fire at Petrojam refinery in March 2024, which negatively impacted production during the review quarter; and a fall in business confidence, as less firms believe that the climate is good for investment.
Conclusion
Note however, that for the full fiscal year 2024/25, the projection is more uncertain ranging from -1.0 to 1.0 percent and is largely dependent of the pace of recovery from the fallout from hurricane Beryl.
At the negative side of the range the uncertainties are driven by:
Towards the positive side of the range, the projection is predicated on the expectation that the contraction will be short-lived and there will be a return to positive performance by the October-December 2024 quarter. There is the potential for all industries, with the exception of Agriculture, to return to positive performance, based on:
“Despite the challenges that abound, we remain optimistic as we continue to closely monitor and assess these developments,” PIOJ reports.
Source: caribbeannewsglobal.com