Dry weather forces Prairie producers to begin drought watch

Wild fires across northern regions of Manitoba and Saskatchewan have forced thousands of people to evacuate. While it’s a bit early to cry wolf, the lack of rain and high winds fuelling the wild fires don’t bode well for agriculture, either.

An Environment Canada map showing per cent of average precipitation from April 1 to May 30 paints a grim picture of the growing problem. Much of the northern grain belt has received less than 40 per cent of average precipitation over that time.

If you examine the area receiving less than 60 per cent of normal precipitation, it includes most of the Peace River region, the area east of Edmonton, a huge land mass north and south of Saskatoon, northwestern Manitoba, the Interlake and even the area east of Winnipeg.

The most drought-prone region of the Prairies is traditionally southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, and the map does show below normal precipitation along both sides of the Saskatchewan-Alberta boundary. However, the biggest area of very dry conditions is in the northern grain belt.

Cropland topsoil moisture conditions as rated by Saskatchewan crop reports has the driest rating in northeastern Saskatchewan, an area where drought is relatively rare. As of May 28, only 31 per cent of the cropland in the northeast was rated as having adequate moisture, while 59 per cent was rated as short and 10 per cent as very short.

The wettest area has been southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, where heavy spring rain created surplus moisture conditions. The May 28 crop report put cropland topsoil moisture at 17 per cent surplus in southeastern Saskatchewan. Much of central and southern Alberta is at least in the normal range for precipitation.

Of course, looking at April and May precipitation levels only tells part of the story. How much moisture was in the soil going into spring? Did snowmelt run off or infiltrate? How much moisture has been lost due to persistently high winds and higher than normal temperatures?

Long-range weather forecasts have a poor track record for accuracy, but it’s disconcerting to see so many of the major forecasts calling for the next few months to be drier and hotter than normal. If those forecasts are correct, it’s going to be a tough year for farmers and ranchers.

Years of widespread drought, the most recent being 2021, have wide-ranging ramifications.

If hay and pasture production suffers, what will that do to efforts to rebuild the cow herd at a time when cow-calf producers are enjoying record high prices? Will feed supply be adequate or will it be a scramble to have enough to get through the winter?

Huge crop insurance payouts in 2021, followed by significant payments in subsequent years, have contributed to the deficit budgets reported by the Saskatchewan government. Another year with big payments would again skew the budget numbers.

Farm equipment sales are already soft. Below average crop prospects are certainly not positive for any sales rebound.

It’s early. Pundits, including this one, have sometimes worried about impending droughts, and conditions have turned out better than expected.

While there’s still time for a turnaround, the clock is ticking.

Historically, June is our highest precipitation month. A lot is riding on significant rain materializing in the next few weeks.

As this is being written, the short-term forecasts aren’t offering much hope, but some of the best rain events surprise the forecasters. We can only hope.

Kevin Hursh is an agricultural journalist, consultant and farmer. He can be reached by e-mail at kevin@hursh.ca.

Source: producer.com