AM Market Report – November 6, 2025
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are easing $1/tonne lower this morning, with US grain markets also weakening. South of the border, soyoil is the exception…posting modest gains, which is helping limit the canola decline.
Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 11 cents/bu lower this morning, with meal down and oil higher.
CBOT corn futures are down 1 to 2 cents right now…though the market maintains solid underlying demand support…evident on record-large weekly US ethanol production numbers.
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AM Market Report – November 5, 2025
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE ICE canola futures are trading narrowly mixed this morning…less than…
US wheat markets are also lower…spring wheat futures are down 1 to almost 2 cents, while the winter wheats are losing 5 to 8 cents…despite unconfirmed reports that China recently purchased US wheat for the first time in a year.
Some argument could be made that weakness in US grain futures markets today are merely corrective price pullbacks that are healthy in their fledgling price uptrends. Corn, soybeans, meal and winter wheat futures markets bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. That means the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher in the near term. Hopefully.
US traders remain optimistic about US-China trade opportunities. China says it will lift retaliatory tariffs of 15% on US imports of most farm goods, according to media reports. But China also said it will maintain a 13% tariff on US soybean imports. This news appears to be putting early Thursday pressure on markets.
In Other News
– Ag in the Federal Budget… Grain Growers of Canada (GGC) is welcoming several targeted wins for farmers in the federal government s 2025 budget…notably the permanent reversal of the capital gains tax increase…while warning that other measures could weaken the sector s competitiveness.
Budget 2025 acknowledged the impact that the capital gains tax increase would have had on family-run grain farms across Canada by permanently reversing it, Kyle Larkin, Executive Director of GGC, said in a statement Tuesday, following the budget s release. This will ensure that family farms can continue their succession planning with certainty and that the next generation of farmers does not pay millions of dollars more in taxes.
The reversal represents a major victory for farm families concerned about intergenerational transfer costs. But GGC cautioned that while the move provides clarity and relief, broader challenges for the ag industry remain, especially around trade, infrastructure, and rail competitiveness.
The budget introduced several trade-focused measures to help farmers respond to trade disruptions. Among them are the creation of a Strategic Exports Office and additional funding for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency to modernize digital trade tools and safeguard market access.
I m seeing first-hand how trade uncertainty is impacting grain farmers across the country, said Scott Hepworth, Chair of Grain Growers of Canada and a grain farmer from Saskatchewan. With challenges in the US and tariffs in China, producers are under real pressure. The new investments in digital export tools and market diversification are positive steps. We need every tool available to keep grain moving, find new customers, and protect our bottom line in an unpredictable global environment.
A Global News report yesterday said Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne mentioned canola farmers specifically in his budget speech in the House of Commons while promising relief and support for tariff-affected sectors. To our lumber and canola producers, we know times are hard, and we are working not only to restore your market access, but to expand it, he said.
China has recently implemented several retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural products in response to Canada’s tariffs on Chinese goods. These include a 100% tariff on canola oil, canola meal, and peas; a 75.8% duty on canola seeds; and a 25% tariff on some pork and aquatic products. Further, India has announced 30% duties on all imports of yellow peas, a market which Canada is by far the largest supplier.
Infrastructure also plays a key role in the budget, with $213 million earmarked for the Major Projects Office and a new $5 billion Trade Diversification Fund designed to strengthen export corridors. GGC urged the federal government to ensure the Port of Vancouver (the country s largest grain export hub) is prioritized.
We continue to urge the government to add the Port of Vancouver to the next major projects list, said Larkin. It s the single most important export gateway for Canadian grain, and its inclusion would send a clear signal that Ottawa is serious about improving trade competitiveness.
Larkin did criticize the absence of an extension to the rail line interswitching program…which expired in March…and raised concerns about a 15% reduction in Agriculture Canada s operating budget, a move the CGG said could undermine public research and breeding programs essential to innovation and productivity.
– US Supreme Court listens to Trump tariff arguments with skeptical ears… US President Trump s tariffs faced a barrage of skeptical questions at the US Supreme Court Wednesday that signal it may be ready to intervene. Businesses and countries suffering from the duties and looking for resolution, though, are set for months of uncertainty, said a Bloomberg report.
Whether or not the high court rules Trump wrongly imposed tariffs on dozens of nations by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the reality is that the president loves tariffs. And trade lawyers and experts say there are plenty of other laws he can draw on to fill the gap if needed, even if none offers the immediacy Trump relishes, said Bloomberg. That means uncertainty will hang over big geopolitical negotiations with China, the European Union and other trading partners, and the day-to-day conduct of business for the thousands of companies paying the duties or trying to find ways around them. Betting markets late Wednesday showed declining odds that Trump will prevail, and shares of large US retail brands rallied on hopes for relief from import taxes he imposed this year, said the report.
The Trump administration put on a brave face after Wednesday s 2.5-hour arguments, which featured skeptical questioning by key conservative justices of the government s case. Speaking in an interview with Fox News, Trump said that he was told the case went well and warned that the entire world would be in a depression had he not been able to implement the levies on goods from trading partners. It s one of the most important, maybe the most, but one of the most important cases in the history of our country, Trump said and as reported by Bloomberg.
– China buys first US wheat cargoes since 2024… China has booked two cargoes of US wheat following last week’s meeting between the countries leaders, the first such purchases since October last year, signalling easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Investors welcomed the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, which helped ease concerns over the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies that had disrupted flows of goods including key agricultural products. Beijing on Wednesday announced that from November 10 it would scrap tariffs that it had announced on March 4 for some US agricultural goods. The move includes removing a 15% duty on US wheat. The purchases of around 120,000 tonnes for December shipment include one cargo of US soft white wheat and one of spring wheat.
In another positive sign on the trade front, a shipment of sorghum has been sent from the US to China since Trump and Xi met.
– Russia considers doubling grain export quota… The Russian government is considering a grain export quota of 20 MMT for the second half of the marketing season, from February 15 to June 30, 2026, according to a draft document published by the Russian Grain Union lobby group on Wednesday. Last year, the quota was set at 10.6 MMT and applied only to wheat and meslin. The draft document indicated that the government commission is now considering the inclusion of corn and barley in the quota as well.
Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, allows quota-free exports in the first part of the marketing season from July to February. Quotas then kick in for the rest of the season, distributed among exporters on the basis of their performance. The government projects Russia’s grain exports at 50 MMT in this season, just over 38% of the total harvest. The bulk of this will be wheat exports, which it estimates at up to 44 MMT.
For the first half of 2025, Russia cut its grain export quota to 10.6 MMT from 29 MMT in the previous year, after a bad harvest in many regions. In the 2024/25 season Russia exported 53 MMT.
This year, Russia is on track to harvest 135 MMT of grain after good crops in Siberia and central regions offset losses inflicted by drought in the south, notably Rostov. However, Russian exports slowed sharply at the start of the new marketing season with Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev blaming low global prices. He said that Russian exports will resume when prices improve. Analysts are predicting that Russian exports will pick up in November.
– Record US ethanol production highlights biofuel demand… More ethanol was produced in the US last week than any other week on record. The US Energy Information Administration says production averaged 1.123 million barrels per day, rising 32,000 on the week and 18,000 on the year. That all-time high comes as ethanol producers try to meet actual and expected demand, with corn more readily available as harvest wraps up in some key growing areas.
Iowa State University s Center for Agricultural and Rural Development says the estimated operating margins for the average Iowa plant receded, while remaining in positive territory and holding above a year ago. US ethanol stocks of 22.655 million barrels were an increase of 288,000 from the previous week and 635,000 from last year.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 225.76 points on Wednesday to settle at 47,311.0, while the S&P 500 gained 24.74 points to finish at 6,796.29. Early Thursday, the December Dow Jones Futures were up slightly in overnight action, but are now dipping 10 points lower.
Global stock markets are searching for direction after better-than-expected US economic data drew investors back into markets yesterday in the wake of a steep sell-off that started the week. Wall Street futures have turned slightly weaker this morning after major North American markets rebounded yesterday to close higher. Canada s TSX stock index futures are inched lower now as well, along with softer European stock markets.
The December US Dollar Index is down 0.349 at 99.710. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 70.93 US cents.
Dec crude oil futures are down $0.23 at US $69.37/barrel. Oil prices are slipping, concerned about a potential supply glut in 2026.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trending 3 to 11 cents/bu lower this morning, led by the front end of the market. Bean futures posted double-digit rebounds on Wednesday, with contracts up 11 to 15 cents at the close. It s been up-one-day, down-the-next kind of trading week for soybeans so far. Same for soymeal futures…down $4 to $7/ton this morning after rallying $4 to $7 on Wednesday. Soyoil futures are 28 to 31 points higher this morning, though easing off overnight session highs…ended steady to 16 points higher yesterday.
Overnight, China suspended some retaliatory tariffs on US goods, but left on a 10% tariff from the Liberation Day tariff response, with the total tariffs on US soybeans 13%. Traders continue to express cautious optimism about the US trade framework with China. Still, there are a lot of unknowns about the proposed Trump-Xi deal, and China also continues to buy beans from Brazil.
The market is trying to gauge how much US soy business China has taken in the last week…and will they come forward with the very optimistic sales targets recently trumpeted by the Trump administration…including the immediate claim China will buy 12 MMT of US soybeans in the next two months when Brazilian beans are cheaper. Hmmm.
From this side of the border, we have seen soybean cash bids here in Manitoba improve by about $1.00/bu over harvest deliveries. With CBOT soybean futures price charts seeming to waver following a 3-week spike higher, but be time to advance another incremental cash sale here.
Chicago corn futures are easing 1 to 2 cents lower this morning. The corn market pushed higher into the close on Wednesday with contracts up 3 to 5 cents across the front months.
China reportedly purchased a cargo of US sorghum overnight.
EIA yesterday reported US ethanol production at a record average of 1.123 million barrels per day, up 32,000 bpd from the previous week. That helped to build stocks by 288,000 barrels to 22.655 million barrels as of October 31.
The trade believes export demand for US corn remains quite strong, but with the US government shutdown now the longest on record, we have not seen a USDA export sales update in over a month.
Dec corn futures are down 2 cents this morning at $4.33/bu…technically still trending upward, but encountering overhead chart resistance currently at around the $4.35/bu level…and the 200-day average ($4.36). Next Friday’s USDA production and supply/demand report (Nov 14) could change corn’s narrow trading pattern.
US wheat markets are weakening this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are down around 1 to 2 cents, while the winter wheats are losing 5 to 8 cents. The wheat market saw mixed action on Wednesday…SRW up 4 to 6 cents, HRW rising 3 to 5 cents, but spring wheat futures closing Wednesday down a penny.
Traders oddly don t seem to care about an overnight report that China purchased a total of 120,000 tonnes of US wheat, split between soft wheat and spring wheat.
Spring wheat continues to trade just above the recent contract lows, with no sign of staging any sustainable rally. The irony is that demand for wheat has been strong, especially spring wheat. US and Canadian spring wheat exports have been very strong.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures inched slightly higher on Wednesday, as gains in the Chicago soy complex spilled over to support. Weakness in the Canada dollar also underpinned canola, with the loonie hitting a seven-month low ahead of the federal budget yesterday and then losing more ground during the day. Gains in Malaysian palm oil lent further support to canola, while European rapeseed was also mainly higher.
On the other hand, crude oil fell to around $60/barrel amid larger US inventories and fears of weaker demand.
January canola finished yesterday up a very modest 30 cents at $640.40/tonne, while March was just a dime higher at $651.50.
For today… canola futures are easing near $1/tonne lower this morning. Benchmark Jan canola futures are currently down $0.90 at $639.50/tonne. The canola market was hoping for something more from last week s meeting between Prime Minister Carney and China s President Xi Jinping. Some exchange of pleasantries and vague talk of working to improve political and trade relations…which is good…but not resolving the immediate tariff barrier blocking trade to Canada s largest volume canola seed export market.
The market recently incorporated a minor risk premium in the case an actual timeline for the removal of tariffs on Canadian canola developed…but that modest risk premium is now eroding.
The market needs to quickly see some shift to larger exports to alternative markets like Mexico, Japan and Europe. Some wide price swings in canola futures price action during the past week, although the market remains stuck in a sideways range overall.
China imported 4.7 MMT of Canadian canola in 2024/25, accounting for roughly half of all exports that marketing year. That s business that s tough to immediately replace with substitute buyers.
Pakistan is one country that could at least start taking up some of the slack of the lost business to China. Pakistan and Canada last week released a joint statement including an agreement to facilitate Pakistani purchases of Canadian canola. The country had once been a notable canola customer, importing over a million tonnes annually, but has been absent from the market for the past three years due to changes to the country s biosecurity measures.
On related oilseed markets this morning… CBOT soybeans and meal are weaker, though soyoil is slightly higher. EU rapeseed futures are lower.
Malaysian palm oil futures are firmer, partly recovering from losses in the previous session, supported by strength in rival edible oils on China s Dalian exchange. Prices are trying to emerge from a recent 12-week low amid bargain hunting and stronger October export estimates.
To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/
Source: producer.com