AM Market Report – November 13, 2025

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Most analysts expect Friday s report to lower the US national average corn yield, but still report a record large US production estimate. For soybeans, Friday’s report is anticipated to be somewhat market-friendly, with a decrease in both US yield and production. Traders will also watch global wheat estimates in Friday’s data.

In Other News

– Argentina’s wheat crop to hit record level… Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop is projected to reach a record level, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, as the crop records higher yields during the ongoing harvest. The exchange raised its forecast for the crop to 24.5 MMT, a hike of 1.5 MMT from its estimate last month. If the forecast holds true, the harvest will easily surpass the previous record of 23 MMT collected four years ago.

In its monthly crop report, the exchange described the current wheat season as a “mega-campaign,” even more significant than the “super-campaign” of 2021/22. Producers in Argentina, a major global wheat exporter, have already harvested 15% of the planted area, the exchange said, noting record yields in the country’s three most important farming provinces. Argentina’s wheat crop benefited from above-average rainfall during its critical development stage, with the exchange’s report also highlighting agricultural sector’s significant investment in technology this season, particularly in seeds and disease control.

For Argentina’s 2025/26 corn and soybean crops, the exchange maintained its harvest estimates at 61 MMT and 47 MMT, respectively. The report also indicated that local farmers have planted 40% of the expected corn area and 10% of the soybean area.

– India’s palm oil imports hit 5-year low… India’s palm oil imports slid to their lowest level in five years during the 2024/25 marketing year, while purchases of soyoil soared to a record high as a widening price premium made palm oil less attractive to buyers, a leading industry body said. Lower palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could boost inventories in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and pressure benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.

Palm oil imports in the 2024/25 marketing year ended in October fell 15.9% from a year ago to 7.58 MMT, the lowest since 2019/20, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said in a statement. Soyoil imports in the year jumped 59% to a record 5.47 MMT, while sunflower oil purchases fell 16.3% to 2.9 MMT, the SEA said.

– Indonesia to start road tests for ‘B50’ biodiesel next month… Indonesia will start road testing vehicles using biodiesel with palm oil content of 50% in early December as the government considers whether to implement the “B50” mandate only in certain sectors, energy ministry official Eniya Listiani Dewi said. The government aims to introduce the B50 standard in the second half of next year, raising palm oil content from 40% this year in an effort to reduce its reliance on imported fuel. The tests will also be carried out on train engines, ships, mining equipment and generators, she said.

– Delayed payments and broken deals put Egypt s state grains buyer under scrutiny… Mounting trade tensions that earlier this year led to a drop in Egypt’s wheat imports have triggered a shake-up at the country’s new state grains buyer, as a newly appointed leader moves to restore credibility.

For decades, Egypt, often the world s largest wheat importers, ran a transparent tender system to secure supplies for a bread subsidy program that feeds tens of millions of people and is a cornerstone of social stability. The huge purchases make Egypt one of the world’s top wheat importers and a benchmark for global prices.

But the new military-linked agency Future of Egypt, which took over purchasing in December, ditched the formal tenders of predecessor the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) in favour of informal negotiations, six traders at global suppliers of wheat and vegetable oils to Egypt told Reuters.

Delayed payments and repeated attempts by the new agency to renegotiate prices or cancel agreed contracts when global wheat and vegetable oil prices fell were widely viewed by traders as defaults…something unheard of under GASC. These practices strained relationships with suppliers and were a major factor behind the sharp drop in Egypt s wheat imports in the first half of 2025.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 326.86 points on Wednesday to settle at 48,254.82, while the S&P 500 gained 4.31 points to 6,850.92. Early Thursday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 113 points.

Global stock markets are taking a pause at the end of the longest US government shutdown on record, with markets turning to the resumption of US economic data to gauge the interest rate outlook. Wall Street futures are muted to weaker this morning after the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended yesterday s session above 48,000 for the first time. TSX stock index futures are in positive territory after Canada s main stock index closed at a record high yesterday.

Delayed US economic data will likely trickle out next week, economists expect, and the focus is on whether it will back up private surveys that have shown softness in the US job market.

One of the arguments now is with (US govt) reopening, we should get a lot of data coming through that will give more clarity for [US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome] Powell to say: I m cutting rates because of this, said Damian Rooney, director of institutional sales at Perth-based stockbroker Argonaut.

The December US Dollar Index is down 0.174 at 99.200. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.51 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures are up $0.58 at US $59.07/barrel. Oil prices reversed course higher this morning after yesterday s steep losses amid a report showing rising crude inventories in the US, which fuelled concerns that the global supply is more than sufficient to meet current fuel demand.

Recent [price] weakness seems to be driven by OPEC s revision of supply/demand balance in 2026 in its monthly report, which confirms the group is now acknowledging the possibility of a supply glut in 2026, in contrast to its more bullish stance all along, said Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank s energy sector team lead.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading mostly 3 to 8 cents/bu higher this morning. Jan beans are up 8.25 cents at $11.42/bu…attempting an upside breakout of a potentially bullish flag formation on its price chart. Bean futures were weak early on Wednesday, but shrugged off the losses to close with 6 to 7 cent front month gains. Soymeal futures are up $1/ton this morning, while soyoil is gaining 34 to 43 points.

Regarding Friday’s USDA report, traders have been building in a lower US soybean national yield average and overall output estimate for 2025. The market seems to have dialed in a fairly conservative report, so any major surprises could lead to more volatility in beans. What’s less apparent is where USDA will land on ending stocks, given the absence of weekly US export reports. Additionally, global crop estimates could weigh on the soybean market. Will global demand keep up with global supplies?

Worrisome for traders…China s still lacking purchases of US soybeans in the aftermath of the Trump Xi trade summit in late-October that was intended to reset bilateral relations and included a target of 12 MMT US soybean sales by year-end. Following a modest initial burst of goodwill buying, traders says new Chinese orders suddenly stopped, casting doubt on Beijing s commitment to the deal.

Fact is…China has already sourced large volumes of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina this year, and therefore have limited need for additional US supplies, especially given the 13% import tariff that makes American beans less price competitive. Most recent modest US purchases were made by state-owned firms likely for reserve purposes rather than commercial use, reinforcing skepticism about whether the trade agreement s agricultural commitments will hold through the end of the year.

Yet many in the US ag trade and media remain delusional in believing Trump Administration rantings that vast US soy sales to China are now happening. They are not.

Chicago corn futures are trading steady to a penny lower this morning. Dec corn is flat…testing overhead chart resistance at $4.35/bu. Despite a three-session rally this week, the corn market has only moved a total of 8 cents this week.

Traders will closely watch the USDA’s US yield and production estimates in Friday’s report. Traders expect lowered US production and yield numbers from USDA, with updated projections from CONAB for Brazil also out Friday.

However, demand has been the main driver recently, so traders are eager to see a fresh look at the demand side of the balance sheet. Demand for US corn remains solid.

US wheat markets are weaker this morning…generally 1 to 2 cents lower. The US wheat complex closed Wednesday with gains across most contracts in the three US exchanges.

Minnie Dec spring wheat futures are down a penny this morning after finishing essentially unchanged yesterday, but has lifted off its contract low posted in October to now trade at its highest level since late September.

USDA’s data dump on Friday may have less impact on the wheat market, compared with the corn and soybean markets. Traders will be interested in how large the USDA’s estimate is for global production. Most analysts expect to see a build in both US and global wheat ending stocks.

Wheat production areas around the world, like many other agricultural products, are experiencing some awesome weather that has contributed to a depressed commodity futures trade. Improved weather has managed to squeeze out much of the production problems that were occurring earlier in this decade when a multi-year La Ni a event was occurring and there is not much reason to expect change through the coming winter or early spring.

Wheat production potentials in the Southern Hemisphere are very good this year. Harvesting is underway in Australia and parts of Brazil and soon will start in South Africa and Argentina. Each of these production areas is experiencing favorable weather and, in some cases, better-than-average yields. Australia and Argentina are the two bigger small grain producers in the Southern Hemisphere, and both are expected to see good production.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended a bit higher in back and forth trade on Wednesday. Increasing optimism over trade with China was a supportive factor, with the foreign ministers for both countries taking part in a telephone call on Tuesday. Wang Yi reportedly told his Canadian counterpart Anita Anand that China is willing to communicate and cooperate with Canada on various fronts. Ag Minister Heath MacDonald was also upbeat on canola trade prospects in an interview Monday following his trip to China.

Chicago soybeans were higher yesterday, but soyoil lost ground. European rapeseed and palm oil were also lower.

January canola futures ended $1.90 higher on Wednesday at $647.40/tonne, and March was up $1.50 to $658.30.

For today… canola futures are trading around $1/tonne higher this morning. Benchmark Jan futures are up $1.90 at $648.10/tonne…continuing its gradual uptrend off its start of October low, but still facing some stiff overhead chart resistance at the $650/t level. This modest uptrend has been built on short-covering, with some buyers now exploring the long side of the market.

There is a growing sense of tepid optimism that a much sought resolution to trade hostilities between Canada and China is on the horizon. Federal agriculture minister Heath MacDonald told Reuters that talks with officials during his recent weeklong trip to China were constructive.

But the canola market is now in a period of equilibrium given the news it currently has to work with. We are searching for new input to inspire a drive higher this in the price outlook.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/