AM Market Report – November 17, 2025

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USDA Report Round-up

On Friday (Nov 14), the USDA trimmed its expectations for 2025 US corn and soybean production…but not notably. Markets had rallied the past month, expecting deeper cuts. In response, Friday s price action posted technical reversals lower for US corn, soybean and wheat futures charts following the USDA report release.

For soybeans, the bearish reaction to the report came from USDA lowering US soybean exports 50 million bu to 1.635 billion bu, while acknowledging China would be buying soybeans due to the US-China trade framework. I suspect more cutting to US export potential is coming as I remain skeptical regarding the fruits of any Trump trade deal…China has yet to barely even acknowledge its existence.

USDA sees 2025 US soybean production at 4.253 billion bu, 1% under the September projection, following a modest cut for yield, which is still seen at an all-time high of 53 bu/acre. Harvested area held at 80.313 million acres. For 2024, US bean production was 4.374 billion bu with an average yield of 50.7 bu/acre on harvested area of 86.208 million acres.

US corn output for 2025 is now pegged at a still record large 16.752 billion bu, less than 1% below the September guess on a downward revision for yield to a higher than expected 186 bu/acre US national yield average. Harvested area was unchanged at 90.047 million acres. In 2024, the US corn crop totaled 14.892 billion bu, with an average yield of 179.3 bu/acre on 83.046 million acres.

The USDA raised US wheat ending stocks 16 million bu to a more than comfortable 901 million due to the larger US production estimate in the September Small Grains Summary, and US corn ending stocks were up 44 million bu to 2.154 billion because of higher beginning stocks, which canceled out an increase in exports. US soybean ending stocks were down 10 million bu at 290 million with that reduction in production against a modest decrease for exports.

The 2025/26 US marketing year began June 1st for wheat and September 1st for corn and soybeans. The USDA s next round of US supply/demand estimates is out Dec 9.

US grain markets imploded on Friday after USDA’s reports…knocking Chicago soybean futures off their 17-month highs, with CBOT corn backing off their 4.5 month highs. However, even with Friday s post-USDA report slide, most markets still finished higher on the week.

For the week ended Friday… Jan ICE canola futures rose $4.70/tonne. CBOT Jan soybeans gained 7.5 cents/bu, Dec soymeal was $5.40 higher and Dec soyoil gained 47 points. Dec corn futures rose 3 cents/bu, Dec HRW wheat fell 4 cents, Dec SRW wheat eased a half cent, while Dec Minnie hard red spring wheat was up 7 cents.

Wrap

Friday s USDA supply/demand report creates more uncertainty for farmers looking to market grain. USDA didn t really change its estimates of 2025 US corn and soybean national average yield and production all that much. It s still a large US crop harvest situation and there are not many ready profits to be made in most grain, oilseed and pulse markets at this time. So we are back to weighing the risks of holding crop unpriced and hoping for something better in the spring, as opposed to selling the crop now taking the cash and paying off debt and moving on to next year.

USDA s January report will show final US crop production numbers, and farmers should be cautious if they are holding out for higher prices. Not sure we can expect major reductions in US corn/bean production estimates in that report.

It s important for farmers on either side of the Canada/US border to know their breakeven costs in storing grain. If the crop is in pretty good condition coming out of the field, growers will probably be inclined to store if in on-farm storage. But for anything that s in commercial storage, it is going to be higher costs…and the inclination may be to move it more quickly.

But, as always, a lot can change between now and the spring, especially if countries start increasing export purchases.

In Other News

– Budget, government s fate up in the air ahead of crucial vote… The House of Commons is set today for one final vote on the main budget motion that will determine if the fiscal policy can go ahead and if the Liberal Party can keep governing. The Liberal government tabled the budget earlier this month. It calls for billions of dollars in new spending to help prop up a Canadian economy hit hard by US tariffs, along with cuts to the public service that the government says would lead to billions of dollars in savings.

The motion simply calls on the House to approve in general the budgetary policy of the government. But because it is considered a confidence vote, the government would fall if the motion fails…which would likely trigger another federal election…and nobody wants that. The Liberals currently are still a few votes shy of a majority, meaning the government will need the co-operation of at least one other party to pass Monday s budget motion.

The Liberals have survived two confidence votes on the budget already. But it is not 100% clear how Monday s vote will go as most opposition parties have firmly staked their positions on the budget.

– Canada eyes fresh start in trade talks with India… Canada and India are working to rebuild trade ties and explore new areas of cooperation after a two-year chill, with Ottawa keen to restart trade negotiations under “a new process”, Canadian Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said on Thursday. Sidhu, on a three-day visit to India, met India s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal for what he described as a very productive ministerial dialogue focused on sectors including critical minerals, clean energy, agriculture and artificial intelligence.

“The meeting went really well. We focused on areas of opportunity…aerospace, AI, critical minerals, energy, agriculture…and what more we can do together, Sidhu told Reuters in an interview after the meeting.

Sidhu s visit marks a major high-level trade engagement since Canada paused negotiations for a broad trade pact in 2023, after relations soured when Ottawa accused New Delhi of involvement in the killing of a Canadian Sikh separatist. Sidhu said the two sides were now in early discussions to restart the process , referring to global economic shifts including the imposition of high tariffs by the United States on goods from both countries. He said the government of Canada s new Prime Minister Mark Carney brought a new focus, new energy and new mandate , and was keen to enhance cooperation with India to attract investment in the energy and critical minerals sectors.

Relations between the countries began to improve following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Carney on the sidelines of the G7 summit in June.

– China…To Buy or Not To Buy US soybeans… Chinese officials still do no confirm the US soybean purchase commitment China reportedly made at the Trump-Xi meeting 2 weeks ago. At a Ministry of Commerce press conference late last week, a reporter asked a spokesman to confirm the White House’s claims that China committed to buy 12 MMT of US soybeans by the end of calendar year 2025 and 25 MMT in each of the next 3 years. The question prompted a word salad nonanswer that did not even mention soybeans. Instead, the spokesman recited talking points about China’s commitment to open and mutually beneficial agricultural trade.

Other things about this question and nonanswer are puzzling. The transcript failed to identify the journalist asking the question, but the affiliations of all other questioners at the press conference were stated. Was the question actually a plant to send a message to the White House? A report was posted on numerous Chinese news sites with a headline claiming that the Commerce Ministry had explained the US soybean situation, but the text included only the word salad nonanswer with no mention of soybeans.

This latest bit of apparent theater follows a vague “signing ceremony” with no details from the previous week’s let’s-make-friends Shanghai Import Expo, a pledge to purchase even more Brazilian soybeans at the same Expo, the absence of purchases by China’s Sinograin (usually the buyer sent to buy soybeans when China wants to warm US relations), and a string of Chinese articles reciting the same theme of noncompetitive pricing of US soybeans last week.

It looks like China is sending passive-aggressive signals not to expect a big bump in Chinese soybean purchases right away.

– US refiners split on biofuels… There s a split among US refiners as the Environmental Protection Agency faces a year-end target to finalize its plans to reallocate biofuel blending volumes that were waived for small refineries under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and also set RFS targets for 2026 and 2027, Inside EPA reported. The report said big oil companies want reduced issuance of the waivers, though both sides oppose a planned reallocation.

For its part, the US biofuels industry has argued only a full reallocation is allowed under the law. How EPA rules on this could have significant implications on US biofuel production within the next couple of years.

– Monsoon turns against India s pigeon pea… Prolonged and intense rainfall across India s summer pigeon pea growing heartland has left widespread damage in its wake, forcing analysts to slash production forecasts for the 2025 26 season. National output could drop by nearly 20% from last year…tightening supplies, firming prices, and likely extending India s reliance on duty-free imports (including lentils) well into 2026 to stabilize prices and ensure supply.

According to IGrain India, India s pigeon pea production for the 2025 26 marketing year is expected to fall to around 3 MMT, down from 3.5 MMT a year earlier. Heavy rains and adverse weather conditions have caused significant crop damage, resulting in a noticeable drop in yields, the report noted. Total supply is estimated at 5.07 MMT, with consumption near 4.6 MMT, leaving an ending stocks at nearly half of last year s carryover.

– Brazil to reap record soy crop in 2025/2026… Brazil’s Conab said the country will reap a record soybean crop of 177.6 MMT in the 2025/2026 harvest year, according to data released on Thursday. The world’s largest soy producer and exporter is also expected to ship an unprecedented 112.1 MMT to China and other nations, up 5.11% from the previous crop year, the Conab crop agency added.

The US, one of Brazil’s main competitors along with Argentina, is expected to export less soy in the coming months. “With the projected reduction in US exports, the increase in global demand, and the expansion of Brazilian production, significant growth is estimated in Brazilian exports,” Conab said.

In addition, the expectation of an increase in the mandatory blending of biodiesel with diesel, as well as growing demand for vegetable protein, suggests that the volume of soybeans destined for crushing in Brazil s domestic market could reach 59.37 MMT in 2026.

Brazilian farmers are also likely to reap a large corn crop despite a projected fall of 5.4% in overall yields. Brazil will harvest almost 139 MMT of corn in 2025/2026, a 1.6% drop from the previous crop year. Despite the slight fall in total projected corn production, Conab said farmers will increase the country’s corn area by 4% to 56.142 million acres. Brazil plants three corn crops each year, with second corn contributing the most output.

– Tunisia buys durum in tender… Tunisia s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 tonnes of durum in an international tender. The durum was believed to have been bought at the lowest price of US $323-$325/tonne c&f (landed Tunisian port) included for an estimated 50,000 tonnes from trading house Amber, traders said. That s down from late winter/early spring pricing landed North Africa in the area of $345-$350/t.

– Noted palm oil analyst says prices may push to three-year high in early 2026… Palm oil prices may surge to a three-year high of 5,500 ringgit ($1,332) a tonne in the first quarter of next year if global supplies are squeezed by rising use in biofuels, according to veteran trader Dorab Mistry and as reported by Bloomberg. That price level is possible if Indonesia continues to seize plantations and talks about implementing B50 , the director of Godrej International Ltd. said on Friday in slides prepared for an industry conference in Bali.

Mistry was referring to the government s recent takeover of farms deemed to be operating illegally, and the proposed expansion of the country s biodiesel mandate.

In September, Mistry, who s been trading vegetable oils for more than three decades, said palm prices would surpass 5,000 ringgit a tonne by year-end. His forecasts are underscored by flat supply, a decline in productivity, and biofuel mandates around the world. Indonesia, the world s biggest producer, is planning to raise its biofuel mix in diesel to 50%, a move that is anticipated to deepen palm s supply crunch. Any tweaks to the nation s domestic obligation policy, which requires producers to sell locally before exporting, will add to the very bullish outlook for palm oil, he said.

The US biodiesel regime, meanwhile, is also critical to the price outlook for vegetable oils, he added. Politicians like biofuels as a clever way to help farmers and fight climate change, said Mistry. He expects global demand for vegetable oil used in energy to climb around 4 MMT in 2025-26, from growth of 3 MMT a year ago, due to an expansion of capacity and use in the US, Brazil and Indonesia.

– Egypt targets buying more local wheat… Egypt has targeted procurement of 5 MMT of local wheat next season as it moves away from being one of the world’s top wheat importers to self-sufficiency, the supply ministry said on Sunday. Egypt typically imports about 10 MMT a year, with the state buyer obtaining roughly half of that for the country’s bread subsidy program on which 70 million people rely. In the first half of this year, however, imports were a quarter less than the same period last year, according to shipping and trading data reviewed by Reuters. The government’s share of those imports dropped by more than half to about 1.6 MMT, reflecting slower procurement since the state buyer changed from the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) to the military-linked Future of Egypt for Sustainable Development (Mostakbal Misr).

Last week Reuters reported that the Future of Egypt, which took over purchasing in December, had ditched the formal tenders of GASC in favour of informal negotiations, spurring mounting trade tensions and a drop in Egypt’s wheat imports.

– Trump calls out Big Four meatpackers as foreign-owned cartels… A Bloomberg opinion story over the weekend highlighted US President Trump calling on the US Justice Department to investigate the so-called Big Four meatpacking conglomerates that have a hammerlock on beef processing, distribution and pricing in the US. Trump s allegations are serious: price fixing, collusion and market manipulation by what he calls foreign-owned meatpacking cartels.

Together, the Big Four control 85% of the US beef market, which the White House says amounts to monopoly power, allowing the companies to slash payments to farmers, reduce herd sizes, drive up consumer prices and jeopardize the nation s food supply, said Bloomberg. Action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat Illegal monopolies, and ensure these corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American people, Trump posted on his social network.

The Big Four themselves have chosen not to comment on the investigation or the president s allegations. But the Meat Institute, a trade group representing meat and poultry processors, said beef packers have been losing money because of tight cattle supplies and strong demand.

Recent Trump administration actions have concerned many US farmers…namely a trade showdown with China that prompted China to stop buying US soybeans, and Trump threatening to import more beef from Argentina.

President Trump may have won back a measure of farmer support by attacking four of the best-known names in agribusiness: Minnesota s Cargill, one of the largest privately held companies in the country; Tyson Foods, a major meat and poultry producer out of Arkansas; and JBS in Colorado and National Beef Packing Company in Missouri. The latter two are owned by companies in Brazil but have their U.S. headquarters in those states. The US beef market was valued at more than $108 billion in 2024, said the Bloomberg opinion piece.

– Trump cuts US tariffs on imports of beef, coffee and other foods as inflation concerns mount… US President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries. The new exemptions…which took effect retroactively at midnight on Thursday…mark a sharp reversal for Trump, who has long insisted that the sweeping import duties he imposed earlier this year are not fueling inflation.

Seems like a contradiction of opinion here by Trump…if, as he says, tariffs don t raise prices for American consumers, then why does he think reducing/eliminating tariffs of certain good reduce prices?

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 309.74 points on Friday to settle at 47,147.48, while the S&P 500 was down a modest 3.38 points at 6,734.11. Early Monday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down another 63 points.

US, European, and Asian global stock market indices are weaker this morning as markets paused after a wobble in tech stocks last week that could resume or reverse when US $5 trillion chipmaker Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday. TSX futures have also edged lower after Canada s main stock market closed up on Friday.

The headline US data release this week will be Thursday s delayed September jobs report. The figures may be too stale to be of much use, since private surveys have already flagged a US labour market slowdown. If all it does is confirm that, it s not going to change the tune of the more hawkish Fed officials. They are more worried about inflation upside risks, so CPI data for them will be critical.

Statistics Canada this morning reported cheaper gasoline and groceries helped bring Canadian inflation down a couple ticks to 2.2% in October. The agency says gas prices fell at a faster rate in October compared to September as fuel retailers switched to cheaper winter blends. Grocery prices meanwhile fell 0.6% in October for the biggest monthly price drop at the grocery store in more than five years.

The annual October inflation figures were a tick higher than economists expected but slowed from 2.4% year-over-year in September.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.161 at 99.360. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.33 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures have slipped $0.01 lower at US $60.08/barrel. Overall, the perception of oversupply from OPEC+ production increases remains, with traders believing WTI is likely to stay near $60/barrel, fluctuating within a $5 range.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 4 to 13 cents/bu higher this morning, led by the front month Jan contract. Bean futures saw weakness on Friday, as contracts were down 17 to 22 cents in the nearbys. Jan beans still managed a gain of 7.5 cents on the week ended Friday. Soymeal futures up $1 to $3/ton this morning after falling $1 to $6 on Friday, though Dec meal rose $5.40/ton last week. Soyoil futures are 18 to 28 points higher this morning…also higher last week.

Friday’s USDA report dropped the average US soybean yield of 53.0 bu/acre only slightly from what the trade expected. Total output was lowered but remains a record large 4.26 billion bu. Perhaps the biggest bear in the data was the 50 million bu cut to US exports, now pegged at 1.63 billion. USDA said that despite a trade deal with China, the US may have lost market share with other global customers. Globally, USDA raised its old-crop soybean estimates for Brazil and Argentina, but left new-crop estimates unchanged.

US President Trump on Friday evening said that China is in the process of buying US beans and he expects the buying to pick up before spring.

NOPA member US soy crush numbers for October are out later today, with the average guess at a record 209.522 million bu.

Brazil s soybean crop is estimated at 71% planted as of Thursday according to AgRural, lagging the 80% from the same week last year.

The soybean market will need a demand spark or South American weather threat to break higher following the October rally.

Chicago corn futures are trading fractionally higher this morning…only a slightly recovery from Friday s 10 to 11 cent sell-off. Despite Friday s losses, Dec corn did post a 3 cent gain on the week.

Friday’s USDA report estimated 2025-26 US corn ending stocks at 2.15 billion bu, exceeding trade expectations. Analysts have often said that the market doesn’t become bullish until ending stocks fall closer towards 1.0 billion bu. USDA s estimate corn yield average of 186 bu/acre was 2 bu above the average trade estimate. But demand for US corn remains the positive…exports were increased by 100 million bu to 3.1 billion bu, based on shipments to date.

The USDA on Friday also released strong Mexican demand data for US corn. Looks good…but another way of looking at it is Mexico needs corn to feed cattle that would otherwise move north to the US to be feed, but are not because of a closed US border due to the New World Screwworm outbreak. That means USDA s current estimate of US domestic feed demand estimate for US corn at 600 million bu more than last year doesn t make much sense given far fewer cattle to feed in the US this year relative to last.

US wheat markets are trading slightly higher this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are up 4 to 6 cents, HRW 3 to 4 cents higher and SRW wheat gaining 4 to 5 cents. The US wheat complex posted losses on Friday…spring wheat futures settling 5 to 7 cents lower, though the Dec contract held onto a weekly gains of 6.75 cents.

Friday’s USDA report was bearish to the wheat market for all reasons expected. The USDA said that the outlook for 2025/26 US wheat this month is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks, with no change to use. It raised the 2025-26 world ending stocks outlook by 7.4 MMT to 271.43 MMT. Almost all major wheat-producing countries saw a jump in production estimates. The trade expected higher export estimates but didn’t get them.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures retreated from earlier gains to finish lower on Friday as Chicago soybeans suffered steep losses.

Friday s USDA supply/demand update…the first since September…did not appear overly bearish for soybeans, with the 2025-26 average US yield and ending stocks reduced slightly. However, a cut in the export forecast and ongoing lack of Chinese buying of US bean helped to send the soy market lower regardless. Corn and wheat also lost significant ground.

Soybean oil and meal ended lower on Friday as well, along with European rapeseed and crude oil. Palm oil was mixed. The Canadian dollar was higher, adding further pressure to canola.

January canola dropped $3.40 to finish Friday at $647.50/tonne, and March fell $3 to $658.60.

For today… canola futures are trading $3/tonne higher this morning, which would be the highs of the overnight session. Benchmark Jan canola futures are up $3.10 at $650.60/tonne, continuing an uptrend from the start of October low, with sticky overhead chart resistance here at $650.

Canada s Ag Minister optimistic talk about progress with China, potentially reopening market access has brightened canola market sentiment…though no real progress yet made on the import tariff front. No timeline for tariff removal, but talks are ongoing.

According to the latest Canadian Grain Commission data, weekly Canadian canola exports were down week-over-week at only 121,200 tonnes for the week ended Nov 9 (Week 14), and still far below the last year and 5-year average pace…only 1.544 MMT shipped for export since August 1 (down from 3.365 MMT to Week 14 last year).

Domestic disappearance also slowed in the latest week to 153,900 tonnes to 3.175 MMT since Aug 1, now slipping below the 3.249 MMT to the same date last year (record pace), though still right at the 5-year average.

Canola traders are taking a price-friendly view from the rebound in CBOT soybean futures this morning following Friday s post-USDA report sell down. Malaysian palm oil trade is slightly higher, but has more or less flat-lined this month following a sell-off posted in October. European rapeseed futures are quietly higher, though trending sideways over the past 3 weeks.

Domestic demand for Canadian canola remains steady, but exports still seriously lag last year without China business.

On the feed grains… MarketsFarm reporter Phil Franz-Warkentin writes that Australia s 2025/26 barley harvest is underway and early expectations for a record crop should see the country as an active participant in the world export market going forward. Australia exported 8.23 MMT of barley in the 2024/25 marketing year that ended in September, with 7 MMT of feed barley and the remainder malt barley, reported the Australian Bureau of Statistics. China was the largest customer, accounting for more than 70% of the total barley exports.

Australian barley competes with Canadian exports into key Asian markets.

Australia grew 14.55 MMT of barley in 2024/25, with both production and exports hitting their third highest level on record. Early estimates for 2025/26 suggest production above 16 MMT, which would be a new record for the country and could lead to record exports.

That creates the opportunity for a record export program of more than 9 MMT, along with a recovery of carry-out stocks back to above average…a rare combination, said Sam Roache of Compass Grain in a Grains Central article.

Roache said Australian barley prices will need to stay competitive to both China and secondary destinations this season to maximise the share of demand. We do not see the same bones for a big rally versus last year, with considerable oversupply and a recovery from the drought conditions in southern Australia, which were the main driver of the rally in (South Australia), Victoria and southern New South Wales this year, said Roache.

Canada has already exported just over 1 MMT of barley through the first 14 weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year that began in August, up 63% from the same time a year ago. While Canadian canola exports have all been shut out of China, the country remains a top buyer of barley, with Saudi Arabia also showing increased demand for feed barley early in the 2025/26 marketing year.

Canada s 2025 barley crop was estimated at 8.2 MMT by Statistics Canada, which compares with 8.1 MMT the previous year. Early estimates from Agriculture Canada call for exports to hold steady on the year at 2.8 MMT, with carryout dipping to 1.0 MMT from 1.2 MMT.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/