Chinese imports from Canada stand at nine-year low
The September data from the Canadian Grain Commission indicates that Chinese imports from Canada are running at a nine-year low.
Exports in the first two months of the crop year to China stand at 516,400 tonnes, which is just ahead of the 491,600 tonnes shipped in the 2016-17 crop year. Last year, exports to China were 2.02 million tonnes at the end of September.
The largest drop in exports to China has come in canola, which is down by 1.29 million tonnes from last year.
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Pea exports are also down by 233,000 tonnes from last year, with no peas shipped to China in the 2025-26 crop year.
Soybeans have also been shut out of trade to China so far this crop year, which is not as large a concern. Chinese imports of soybeans tend to be executed later in the crop year.
Wheat exports to China are ahead of last year at this time with 175,800 tonnes shipped in the first two months of the crop year. This is 20,100 tonnes ahead of last year, but below the long-term (nine-year) average of 287,600 tonnes.
Wheat exports to China will be challenged in the coming month by U.S. competition, which is increasing with the recent trade agreement. Australia will also provide significant competition as its harvest gains momentum this month.
Barley exports are also ahead of last year at 226,700 tonnes. This is 3,000 tonnes ahead of 2024 and above the long-term average of 213,800 tonnes. Barley exports to China will also be under pressure from the start of the Australian harvest this month.
The tariff situation is undoubtedly having a significant impact on Canadian exports to China.
However, barley and wheat exports to China are on the same pace as last year. It is important to note that exports of both wheat and barley are continuing at a record pace for both commodities. This is due to increased imports from countries other than China.
Canola exports are increasing to other destinations, with Bangladesh, Japan and Mexico increasing their purchases from last year.
Japan was the largest canola importer to the end of the September at 211,500 tonnes. Mexican imports have nearly doubled to 192,400 tonnes for the crop year to the end of September.
The problem with canola is that China accounted for slightly less than half of the exports during the 2024-25 crop year. It is a very tall task to replace nearly half of the canola export demand. This is why canola exports are struggling when compared to last year.
Pea exports have had more difficulty in finding alternative markets. The situation has been complicated by the Indian tariffs, which went into effect at the beginning of the month. This will create severe headwinds for pea exports during the 2025-26 crop year.
The conclusion is that canola and pea markets are going to need a lifting of the Chinese import tariffs in order to recover a portion of the lost demand. Until that occurs, prices are going to remain low for both commodities.
Source: producer.com