Corn or soybeans? Ontario growers face tough planting calls for spring 2026
SPRING 2026 PLANTING
Ontario grain growers weigh their options as geopolitical chaos rattles input costs and crop prices heading into a critical planting season
WHY IT MATTERS: Fertilizer supply disruptions, volatile oilseed prices and an unpredictable trade environment are making 2026 planting decisions unusually difficult — and the consequences of getting it wrong are expensive.
The situation
Corn is typically the safe-haven crop when oilseed prices swing, but soaring fertilizer costs are making growers think twice about adding corn acres this spring. The decision usually comes down to two things: maintaining a healthy crop rotation, and whatever weather shows up at planting time.
Meanwhile, agronomists are urging Ontario grain growers to spread risk across corn, soybeans and wheat rather than going all-in on any one crop — because nobody knows where the opportunity will land.
THE GLOBAL BACKDROP
Global nitrogen and phosphate markets remain tight and expensive, driven by disrupted trade flows following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, reduced European production after the Nord Stream pipeline shutdown, Chinese export restrictions and ongoing Middle East instability.
The National Farmers Union warned the federal agriculture committee that liquid urea supply disruptions in 2025 — caused by a major U.S. manufacturer rerouting product — exemplify the market unreliability Ontario growers face. Fertilizer supply chains operate on a just-in-time basis with no surplus inventory, leaving producers vulnerable.
As of late February 2026, Russia’s war against Ukraine continues into its fifth year, the global trade war launched by the Trump administration grinds on, and Middle East conflict shows no sign of easing.
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Kelsey Banks
Independent Agronomist, Banks Agro — Morrisburg, Ont.
“How can you spread your risk rather than put it all in one place? You don’t know where those opportunities are going to lie.”
Banks says growers are nervous about declining markets and advocates distributing risk across all three crops. Beyond economics, diverse rotations help with weed control — a concern she flags as particularly acute for spring 2026 given heavy snowfall across parts of the province.
She warns that once the snow melts, growers could face significant preplant weed pressure, and reminds them that even after snow disappears, the ground beneath may still be frozen — making a pre-plant burndown essential for a clean start.
Colin Elgie
Soil Fertility Specialist, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness
“If you’ve been in a build-and-maintain mode for a number of years, maybe this is a year you can cut down to crop removal.”
Elgie recommends growers examine their full cost of production and look for savings. Those who have built up soil fertility over several years may be able to back off to crop-removal rates this season. He also suggests evaluating nitrogen practices — side-dressing or in-season application could improve efficiency and lower overall rates.
For corn growers, he points to the Ontario Corn Nitrogen Calculator and AgriSuite as practical tools for dialling in optimal application rates.
Marty Vermey
Senior Agronomist, Grain Farmers of Ontario
“Eight weeks from now will tell the story.”
Vermey says he hasn’t heard growers indicate they’re switching crop acres — most value the long-term benefits of maintaining their rotational systems. When acres do shift, it’s usually driven by weather: a delayed spring that closes the corn planting window, or a poor fall that cuts wheat acres, typically results in more soybean acres.
The bottom line, he says, is that weather at planting time — not economics — remains the biggest driver of acre swings from year to year.
Crop rotation
Sticking to a proactive rotation plan spreads risk and keeps weed pressure in check — especially important heading into a spring with heavy snow and potential for early weed flushes.
Spring Weather
A delayed or wet spring could close the corn planting window entirely, pushing more acres to soybeans by default. Frozen ground under melted snow adds another variable.
Fertilizer Cost & Supply
Tight global supply and rising prices are squeezing corn profitability. An unusually cold winter could push natural gas prices — and nitrogen costs — even higher.
Total Cost of Production
Seed, fertilizer and equipment costs all factor in. Growers who have been building soil fertility may be able to reduce rates this year to manage expenses.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Nobody — not agronomists, not economists, not the markets — can tell Ontario growers exactly what to plant this spring. Global instability has made input costs unpredictable, and crop prices are declining.
The consistent advice from across the sector: spread your risk, stick to your rotation, look for input efficiencies, and plan for multiple scenarios. Weather will ultimately have the final say.
“Eight weeks from now will tell the story.”
Source: Farmtario.com