AM Market Report – March 17, 2026

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

After taking a beating on Monday, ICE canola futures are rebounding $21 to $23/tonne so far this morning in wild whipsaw price action to start the week. We are also seeing some crazy swings to and fro in the US soy complex yesterday and again through the overnight and now early morning trading hours. Currently, Chicago soybean futures are trading 4 to 13 cents/bu higher, with the far deferreds leading. Soyoil futures are well over 100 points higher this morning.

Markets are stabilizing following Monday s limit-down declines for old-crop soybean and soyoil futures. The drop was sparked when US President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened to delay a summit meeting with China due to Beijing s failure to join efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, and as crude-oil futures fell. The downdraft was aided by technically overbought conditions (see item below).

In Other News

– Trump seeks China summit delay… US President Donald Trump Monday afternoon said the timetable for a planned summit meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, scheduled to take place in China March 31 to April 2, was now in flux as he deals with the conflict in the Middle East. I don t know, we re working on that right now, Trump told reporters. We re speaking to China. I d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here, I feel, he said, adding that the US had requested that we delay it a month or so.

Trump and administration officials emphasized the demands of managing the war as the reason for the delay. In contrast, Trump on Sunday had told the Financial Times that he might delay the summit due to the administration s ire over China s lack of commitment to joining an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a massive sell-off that led to a limit-down drop for old crop soybean futures.

It s also quite likely Trump is delaying the meeting as negotiations ahead of that leaders meeting has not yield that deliverables he had been hoping for from China.

– Strait talk… US President Trump is caught between two very powerful forces: the Iran war s worsening economic fallout and his own colossal ego, according to a Globe and Mail report. More than two weeks after the United States and Israel first launched their attacks on Tehran, the conflict has caused the biggest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. With Iran effectively shuttering the Strait of Hormuz, choking the flow of Middle Eastern fuel, crude prices have jumped 40% since February…and the costs of food, electronics and household items will soon follow. It s bad enough that, over the weekend, Trump took a belated stab at coalition-building, demanding other countries send warships to help reopen the waterway…help him fix the mess he has made in the Persian Gulf.? Several media outlets have reported that Trump vastly underestimated Iran s willingness to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

But by yesterday afternoon, he had junked the whole notion that their services were required. We don t need anybody; we re the strongest nation in the world, Trump insisted at a White House event. He instead positioned his call for outside help as a way to gauge the loyalty of America s allies. I m almost doing it in some cases not because we need them, but because I want to find out how they react. Sure.

Well, they didn t react with a ton of enthusiasm. Germany came out with the bluntest rejection of military aid in the Strait of Hormuz: This is not our war. We did not start it, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said yesterday, before wondering what Trump expected from a few European ships that the mighty US Navy cannot manage alone. Stefan Kornelius, a spokesperson for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, was quick to remind reporters, Washington explicitly stated at the start of this war that European assistance was neither necessary nor desired.

The foreign ministers from France, Italy, Spain, Greece and Poland all ruled out any role in patrolling the strait. So did top officials from Australia, Japan, Luxembourg and the European Union. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hedged a little, saying he was working on a viable plan to safeguard maritime traffic, but no details were provided and no decisions have been made. Starmer then emphasized that his country will not be drawn into the wider war.

Missing from all this prognostication, though, was any sign of how the current war could end. He sidestepped a question about what a deal with Iran might look like. He did say he was open to talks, but immediately added that we don t even know their leaders, because everyone on the White House s radar has been killed. We have people wanting to negotiate, Trump said. We have no idea who they are.

European officials weren t particularly satisfied with that response. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told reporters yesterday that it s crucial for the US and Israel to define when they consider the military aims of their deployment to have been reached. His Estonian counterpart, Margus Tsahkna, echoed the desire to understand Trump s strategy better. What will be the plan?

It s hard to say: The rationale for Trump s attacks on Iran keeps shifting, as does the time frame for any sort of US withdrawal. Trump has variously said the campaign would last two or three days, or perhaps a few weeks, or maybe a month and a half. Last Friday, he landed on a new schedule altogether. The war will be over, he told Fox News, when I feel it feel it in my bones.

Also note… With oil prices surging and US sanctions temporarily lifted, the war in the Middle East has handed one gift after another to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

– Russian wheat export prices at highest since August...Russian wheat export prices rose to their highest since August last week, tracking rising global prices and as shipments from ports picked up pace as the weather improved. The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in April was US $238/tonne at the end of last week, up $2.0 from a week earlier, the IKAR consultancy, said. SovEcon estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein at $238 to $240/t FOB, compared with $234 to $236 the previous week.

“Russian FOB prices hit their highest since August 2025, when they reached $240/tonne. The rise was supported by stronger global futures and firmer export quotes from key competitors. Demand looks strong and shipment pace is accelerating,” Andrey Sizov, the head of SovEcon said.

SovEcon estimated Russian wheat exports at 3.8 MMT in March, while IKAR has raised its estimate to between 4.1 and 4.4 MMT, up from over 3.5 MMT previously.

Spring fieldwork has begun in 14 regions of the country, and the pace is ahead of last year s, said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev last week. The weather remains largely favourable for the new crop, SovEcon analysts noted.

– Pulse sales to Middle East markets are frozen… Conflict in the Middle East is hurting sales of Canadian pulse crops to that important region of the world, according to a Western Producer report by Sean Pratt. If you have a cargo with any of the shipping lines, they are ending the journey at a destination that is not on your bill of lading, said Tala Mobayen, director of Victoria Pulse Trading Corporation. Her firm operates a pulse processing plant in Francis, Sask., and a trading office in Vancouver. The Middle East is one of many markets they service. Mobayen said shipping companies are also imposing add-on fees related to the conflict. They are very, very hefty at this point in time, she said. As a result, there is no business being conducted in that market. I don t see anyone buying new cargo because they re just worried about their safety, said Mobayen.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region bought 801,000 tonnes of Canadian pulses worth $769 million in 2025, according to Pulse Canada. Roughly 78% of that business was lentils, with chickpeas chipping in another 9%.

The sudden loss of many vital markets in the Middle East will hurt pulse prices in Canada. Red lentil prices were about 23 cents per pound as of March 16. That compares to about 25 cents before the onset of the conflict in Iran.

– Canadian pea exports up in January, lentils lag… Canadian pea exports picked up in January, while lentil movement dipped compared to the previous month, according to the latest Statistics Canada trade data.

Canada exported 190,480 tonnes of peas in January, which was up 15% from December, reported StatCan. Marketing year pea exports to end of January of 1.322 MMT were running about 200,000 tonnes behind the year-ago pace. India was the top buyer through six months, accounting for just over 500,000 tonnes of the total pea exports. Bangladesh and China were also major buyers, although Chinese purchases of 104,406 tonnes through January compare with 413,950 tonnes at the same point a year ago. Though note…China lifted its 100% tariff on Canadian pea imports as of March 1…so export flow is expected to pick up going forward.

Canadian lentil exports were down 34% in January compared to December, with about 165,342 tonnes moved out of the country. Turkey was the largest destination, accounting for 38% of the total. Crop year-to-date exports of 1.191 MMT were down by 2% to end of January. India was the largest buyer of lentils so far this marketing year, accounting for 30% of the total. Turkey and the United Arab Emirates round out the top three.

– South American crop watch… Brazil s massive soybean crop may be grabbing the headlines, but there should be more attention on the difficulties with the country s corn crop, said analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. Right now in South America, I have a corn crop being equal to last year. In my gut, I think it s going to be below last year when the safrinha crop is finally harvested, he said. Although that second Brazil corn crop is more than 91% planted, Cordonnier pointed out there are more than 3.21 million acres still needing to be seeded and stressed the main planting window has closed with dry weather ahead. Planting (corn) at this point is very risky. They ll run out of moisture before the crop has a chance to mature, he said. They re already worried about the dry weather in the state of Paran .

Cordonnier said Brazil s first corn crop is more than halfway harvested, but about 20 points behind this time last year. He said that isn t too much of a concern.

He recently cut his call on Brazilian corn production this year to 133 MMT, from an earlier estimate of 135 MMT. That compares with the USDA s forecast of 132 MMT and 138.3 MMT by Brazil s Conab.

As for corn crop in Argentina, Cordonnier said about 9% has been combined. They re harvesting the best part right now, he said, noting that yields will likely decline as combining progresses. Dry conditions in parts of Argentina created a wide gap in yields, though more recent rainfall has stabilized Argentina s corn.

Meanwhile, Cordonnier left his estimate of Brazil s soybean crop unchanged at a record large 178 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias. Brazil soybeans were 61% harvested as of late last week, according to AgRural, an advance of 10% for the week. The harvest is being slowed by wet weather in northern Brazil, while yields have suffered due to dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul.

He also left his Argentina soybean estimate unchanged at 47 MMT.

– US Feb soy crush tops forecasts… The US soybean crush in February exceeded all trade estimates as the daily crush pace jumped to a record high, while soyoil stocks swelled to the largest since April 2020, according to monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data issued on Monday. NOPA members crushed 208.785 million bu of soybeans last month, up 17.4% from the 177.870 million bu processed same month a year earlier. US crush capacity has swelled amid rising demand from biofuels makers for feedstocks like soyoil.

US soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of Feb 28 jumped to 2.080 billion pounds, up 9.5% from 1.900 billion pounds at the end of January and up 38.4% from the 1.503 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier. Stocks, on average, were expected to rise to 1.928 billion pounds, according to estimates from six analysts.

– Trump invites farmers, biofuels producers to White House event… US President Trump has invited farmers and biofuels producers to a “celebration of agriculture” event at the White House scheduled for March 27, CBS News is reporting, citing sources familiar with its planning. The US Environmental Protection Agency has sent its proposed 2026 and 2027 US biofuel blending quotas to the White House, with a final rule expected before the end of ?March.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 387.94 points higher on Monday to settle at 46,946.41, while the S&P 500 gained 67.19 points to finish at 6,699.38. Early Tuesday, the March Dow Jones Futures are up another 258 points.

Global stock markets are higher this morning, with investors continuing to assess the economic damage from a prolonged Middle East ?conflict, while central bank interest rate decisions loom. Wall Street futures are leaning higher right now after major North American markets closed higher yesterday. Canada s TSX stock index futures are also pointed higher as commodity prices climbed…after gaining 35 points on Monday.

The US Federal Open Market Committee is likely to defer action until it becomes clear whether the output or price effects are dominant, said Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX research at ?Standard Chartered. We would be surprised if the FOMC indicated a strong direction on the impact of the war, as it has no way of knowing how long the war will last or whether the biggest response will be on activity or inflation.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.158 at 99.310. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.97 US cents.

April crude oil futures are up $1.30 at US $94.80/barrel. Oil prices are up this morning, clawing back some of yesterday s losses on renewed supply fears, with the Strait of Hormuz largely shut and US allies rejecting calls to deploy warships to escort tankers through the key chokepoint.

The risks remain stark: It only takes one Iranian militia to fire a missile or plant a mine on a passing tanker to reignite the entire situation, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures have swung rather wildly during the overnight session between gains and losses…currently trading 4 to 13 cents/bu higher, led by the far deferred contracts. Bean futures were pummeled down 60 to the 70 cent/bu limit on Monday across the front months. Soymeal futures are $1/ton or less weaker this morning after plunging $5 to $11/ton lower yesterday in the front months. Soyoil futures are bouncing 131 to 166 points higher this morning after crashing down the 350 point limit on the front months yesterday.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese counterparts met this weekend in Paris to prep for the meeting between President Trump and President Xi later this month. Following the meeting it was noted that China was open to buying more US ag goods, specifically more non-soybean row crops, putting some doubts on purchases of another 8 MMT of US beans for the current marketing year that Trump suggested last month. Also, Trump has now stated the meeting with China will be delayed a month (maybe more), as Trump throws a tantrum about not getting China help unblock the Strait of Hormuz.

USDA tallied US soybean export shipments at 966,082 tonnes during the week ended March 12. That was 8.9% above the week prior and 45.4% larger than the same week last year. US marketing year bean exports for 2025/26 are 28.06 MMT since September 1, which is now 28.3% below the same period last year.

NOPA data from Monday morning, showed a February record 208.785 million bu of soybeans crushed among US members. That was up 10.57% from a year ago, but down 1.52% from January. US bean oil stocks were 2.08 billion lbs, a 38.37% yr/yr increase, with a monthly jump of 9.49%.

Chicago corn futures are moving 1 to 2 cents higher this morning. The corn market plunged 12 to 13 cents lower in the nearbys on Monday…following yesterday s massive panic soybean sell-off.

USDA yesterday reported US corn export shipments of 1.658 MMT for the week ended Mar 12. That was 1.98% below the week prior, but 8.95% above the same week last year. The US marketing year total is now 42.869 MMT of corn shipped since September 1, which is 39.16% above the same period last year.

US wheat markets are leaning weaker this morning. Minnie spring wheat futures are mixed…2 to 5 cents lower in the nearbys, but 3 to 7 cents in the new crop deferreds. Winter wheats are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower. The US wheat complex posted losses across the three markets on Monday…spring wheat down 10 to 12 cents at yesterday s close.

USDA reported US wheat export shipments of 343,022 tonnes for the week ended March 12. That was down 31.2% from last week, and 30.81% below the same week last year. US marketing year shipments have totaled 19.47 MMT, which is up 18.67% yr/yr.

The trade continues to watch weather in the US…in the west (HRW areas) it s expected to stay warm and dry. There is worry about cold temps and freezing conditions in other parts of US winter wheat growing areas.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures were hammered lower on Monday, with the May contract closing just above the $700/tonne. Canola was battered by limit-down losses in Chicago soybeans (70 cents/bu) and soyoil (350 points) amid declines in crude oil and uncertainty about Chinese demand for American soybeans after US President Trump mused about delaying an upcoming summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that traders had hoped might lead to additional Chinese purchases of US soy supplies.

Crude oil, meanwhile, was undermined by reports that some ships had successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz as the US war on Iran rages on. European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil also lost ground on the day. Gains in the Canadian dollar were negative for canola as well.

May canola finished Monday down a whopping $37.30 to close at $702.60/tonne, while new crop November lost $35.50 to $698.70.

For today… canola futures are rebounding up $21 to $23/tonne so far this morning, regaining a sizeable portion of Monday s steep sell-off. Nearby May canola futures are up $23.00 at $725.60/tonne, bouncing off its 20-day moving average ($707).

Oilseed and vegoil markets remain hyper-responsive to developments in energy markets and the actions of a mercurial/unstable US president. Energy markets are moving higher again this morning after selling down yesterday.

But CBOT soy traders remain wary of news Trump has now delayed his scheduled month-end meeting with China s President Xi for another month, or maybe more? Traders are worried about the implied implications for US-China relations…America s largest export market for soybeans by far.

Hard to say at this time whether yesterday s big sell-off in oilseed and its by-product markets established some rally tops or was simply a bull market correction that got carried away thanks to market momentum algorithms.

After all, diesel pricing remains sky-high (bullish for green diesel). Iran is refusing to consider talks to de-escalate the war situation, following up with an escalation of drone attacks instead on countries in the region and continuing to stymie shipping through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. Has Trump miscalculated the resolve of the Iranians? There is nothing to suggest any progress on a de-escalation of the conflict at this point.

And finally of note… US President Trump has invited US farm and biofuel representatives to the White House for what is being called a Celebration of Agriculture event, expected to announce the US Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) and Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) allocation mandates on March 27th. The wording of the event has raised expectations among US farmers and the US biofuel industry that Trump will announce a large/favorable RVO package. Soyoil futures, which closed limit down on Monday, rallied sharply this morning, which has also rallied soybean futures. Hope for a 5.4 to 5.6 billion gallon renewable biodiesel blending package could lift spot soyoil futures back near 70 cents per pound. Few traders will want to be short ahead of the EPA/White House final RVO/SRE announcement.

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