AM Market Report – May 5, 2026

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

A weaker tone this morning across the grain and oilseed markets this morning as energy markets ease back. Seems to be the Turnaround Tuesday phenomenon for grain markets following Monday s gains. Some routine profit-taking from shorter-term speculators and some chart consolidation were featured overnight.

ICE canola futures are trading $1 to $2/tonne lower, while Chicago soybean futures are down 3 to 5 cents/bu.

CBOT corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents/bu lower after tapping a near two-month high overnight.

US wheat markets are also softening and falling off last week s highs…Minnie spring wheat futures are 5 to 7 cents lower, HRW losing 9 to 10 cents, while SRW wheat is down 6 to 7 cents.

While a weaker tone this morning, all the grain markets are enjoying price uptrends early this spring season on price charts, which suggests the path of least resistance remains sideways to higher in the near term.

US corn and soybean planting and emergence made gains over the past week. Overall, weather looks favorable for activity and early development, but parts of the region have seen excessive rainfall as other areas have been dry, and some areas are seeing cooler than ideal temperatures to start this week. The USDA says 38% of US corn was planted as of Sunday and 13% has emerged, both ahead of the respective five-year averages. 33% of US soybeans were planted and 13% has emerged, also both ahead of average.

Weather is also impacting some of the other major commodities. USDA reported US winter wheat in 37% very poor to poor condition (up 2 points on the week largely due to drought in the Plains), 32% fair and 31% in good to excellent condition. The good to excellent category was up 1% from last week and came in 1% above the average analyst estimate according to a poll conducted by Bloomberg. 32% of US spring wheat is planted, slower than normal, and 10% has emerged, just ahead of usual.

Latest on the war in the Middle East

– Shaky US-Iran ceasefire holds after Hormuz clashes and UAE strikes
– Ships cluster farther from Hormuz Strait as Iran widens grip

– Iraq slashes oil prices for buyers willing to transit Hormuz
– Maersk vessel exits Persian Gulf under US military escort

The fragile US-Iran ceasefire held Tuesday morning after a day of clashes involving shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks against the United Arab Emirates. The violence erupted after US President Trump announced Project Freedom, which he described as a humanitarian effort to guide neutral ships stranded in the Gulf through Hormuz. Iran warned all ships against trying to get through Hormuz without its permission and hit a South Korean bulk carrier and attacked an empty tanker belonging to the UAE s state oil firm.

In Other News

– CN, CPKC report record April grain movement... Canada s two major railways set April records for hauling grain and grain products. Canadian Pacific Kansas City hauled 2.9 MMT of Canadian grain and grain, which beat its previous April tonnage record set in 2020. A total of 30,281 carloads in April also beat the previous April high set in 2020.

Canadian National railway hauled 3.2 MMT of grain in April, also a record for that month. That makes eight months of strong performance for this crop year, with seven months being new monthly records, CN said.

– Canadian durum exports positioned for growth in China... China may not be the first market that comes to mind for durum wheat, but new trends suggest that could be changing. During a recent Cereals Canada webinar, industry experts highlighted growing opportunities for Canadian durum wheat as pasta consumption slowly expands in China.

According to Krista Zuzak, Director of Crop Protection and Production with Cereals Canada, China has long been an important destination for Canadian non?durum wheat. However, the real growth opportunity lies in durum. While pasta remains a smaller segment compared to rice and noodles, demand is increasing quickly as Chinese consumers explore new food options. Cereals Canada estimates China s pasta market is forecast to grow at nearly 12% annually, making it one of the fastest?growing segments in the country s food sector. That growth creates a strategic opening for Canadian durum, which is known globally for its high protein content, strong functionality, and excellent colour…key traits for pasta production.

Cereals Canada has been actively working with Chinese buyers, millers, and processors through technical exchanges, seminars, and in?market visits. These efforts help customers understand how Canadian durum performs in milling and pasta applications, building confidence and long?term demand.

As global demand evolves, China represents an emerging opportunity for Canadian durum growers. Cereals Canada says continued technical engagement and market development will be key to turning early interest into sustained export volume.

– Ottawa unveils aid to industries hurt by US tariffs... The federal government is offering $1.5 billion in support to industries hit hard by protectionist US tariffs, including the steel, aluminum and copper sectors. Industry Minister M lanie Joly and Digital Innovation Minister Evan Solomon announced a new $1 billion Business Development Bank of Canada program to extend loans on favourable terms to industries that manufacture and export products containing steel, aluminum or copper. They said the financing assistance is intended to provide rapid liquidity to viable businesses facing significant economic challenges.

The ministers cited changes to existing US tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper April 6 that significantly increased the pain on Canadian manufacturers already struggling with rising costs and uncertain access to the American market.

– Brazil soybean crop grows... Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier on Monday boosted his estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 180 MMT from his previous estimate of 179 MMT, while holding a neutral bias. Brazil s 2025/26 soybean crop will surpass the 2024/25 production of 172.5 MMT by consistent productivity gains and gradual expansion of the planted area, he wrote. Depending on the outcome, the nationwide average soybean yield in Brazil could surpass 55 bu/acre compared to 53 bu/acre in the United States in 2025.

– US corn acres may be down as much as 2 million, beans up as much as 2 million… Crop consultant Cordonnier also noted in his weekly corn and soybean report that this year s US corn acreage could end up 1 to 2 million acres less than the 95.33 million acres estimated in the USDA Perspective Plantings Report (Mar 31). His 2026 US corn yield is estimated at between 180 to 182 bu/acre, which is below last year due to a potential reduction in fertilizer usage. Cordonnier said 2026 US soybean acreage could end up 1 to 2 million acres more than the 84.70 million acres USDA estimated in the Perspective Plantings report. The 2026 US soybean yield is estimated by Cordonnier at 52.0 bu/acre.

– Russian wheat export prices stable… Russian wheat export prices remained stable last week against a backdrop of high energy and fertiliser prices, while initial forecasts for May exports were down by almost half compared with April. The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in May was US $238.5/tonne at the end of last week, up $1.5 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. IKAR estimates Russian wheat exports in May at no more than 2.5 MMT. Its estimate for April exports is 3.8 4.0 MMT. SovEcon consultancy expects prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at between $239 and $241/tonne, the same as a week ago. The agency also left its export forecast for April unchanged at 4.0 MMT.

Last week, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture confirmed that 97% of crops were in good or satisfactory condition, while noting a significant delay in the spring sowing campaign. Analysts regard the weather conditions the warmer weather so far in May after a cold spell, as well as high soil moisture levels as favourable for the new harvest.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted down 557.37 points on Monday to settle at 48,941.90, while the S&P 500 dropped 29.37 points to close at 7,200.75. Canada s S&P/TSX composite stock index shed 252 points to finish at 33,639.

Early Tuesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 204 points. TSX futures are following sentiment higher. European and Asian stock markets were mixed to higher overnight.

Global stock markets are mixed to mostly higher as investors assessed ?upbeat corporate earnings, though an escalation in US-Iran tensions is keeping sentiment in check.

US earnings are on a roll. The broader earnings backdrop looks healthy as well, BlackRock Investment Institute analysts, led by Global Chief Investment Strategist Wei Li, said ?in a note. However, they warned that even US equities won t be insulated if the crucial oil shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz does not open.

The June US Dollar Index is up 0.023 at 98.285. The Canadian dollar steadied against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 73.49 US cents.

June crude oil futures are down $3.72 at US $102.70/barrel. Oil prices are retreating this morning despite fresh hostilities in ?the Middle East, with investors continuing to monitor developments in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Prices continue to trade in a highly volatile range, driven largely by ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, said Phillip Nova s senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva. While prices have eased slightly, this is not due to any real improvement in ?fundamentals, but rather a temporary relief after ?the US launched Project Freedom, she added.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 5 cents/bu lower this morning. Bean futures posted gains on Monday, with most contracts up a solid 9 to 19 cents. Yesterday s rally posted a potential upside breakout of the sideways trending channel limiting soybean price action overt the past 7 weeks.

Soymeal futures are narrowly mixed this morning after gaining $1 to $2/ton on Monday. Soyoil futures trimming down a modest 6 to 21 points this morning after rallying 101 to 137 points higher yesterday to new contract and 3.5 year highs.

Crush margins are solid, which continues to support the soy market, and there s seems optimism (misplaced or not) about an expected US-China trade meeting May 14-15 between presidents Trump and Xi.

The weekly USDA Crop Progress report showed the US soybean crop at 33% planted by May 3, still well above the 23% average pace for this time of year. Emergence was at 13%, vs 5% on average.

Monday morning s Export Inspections report showed 450,145 tonnes of US soybeans shipped in the week ended April 30. That was 29.5% below last week, but 34.1% above the same week last year. The US marketing year total is now 33.27 MMT of soybeans shipped since September 1, which is 23.5% below the same period last year and 18% behind USDA s projected pace for the current marketing year.

StoneX estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at a new record large 181.62 MMT, up 1.96 MMT from their previous projection.

Argentina’s soybean harvest reached just over 18% completion as of last week, with a 48 to 50 MMT crop expected.

Chicago corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower this morning. The corn market posted gains of 5 to 6 cents at Monday s close. New buying interest was noted, up 36,880 contracts, mainly in the July (11,705) and December (15,990) contracts.

USDA weekly Crop Progress data showed the US corn crop at 38% planted as of Sunday, which was 4% ahead of the 5-year average pace of 34% and is now matching the pace from last year. The crop was also 3% emerged, which is 4 percentage points faster than normal. But parts of the US Corn Belt are starting this week with cooler temperatures, potentially impacting early emergence.

Export Inspections data showed US corn at 2.028 MMT shipped in the week ended April 30. That was up 22.41% from last week and 25.43% larger than the same week last year. US marketing year shipments since Sept 1 have totaled 55.482 MMT, which is up 30.47% yr/yr and running hotter than USDA s estimate for the marketing year.

Brazil s corn crop was estimated at 137 MMT according to StoneX, up 1.3 MMT from their previous number. Much of that was in the first crop, up 1.14 MMT to 28.32 MMT. But central Brazil is now generally dry and hot, which could lower yield potential for their second crop.

The trade is also watching Argentina s expected record harvest move forward.

US wheat markets are weakening this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are down 5 to 7 cents, HRW losing 9 to 10 cents and SRW wheat off 6 to 7 cents. The US wheat complex on Monday closed with contracts mixed across the three markets…spring wheat finishing down 2 to 5 cents in most contracts.

USDA weekly Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 32% planted, now 3 percentage points behind the pace from the last 5 years (35%). Emergence was pegged at 10%. The US winter wheat crop was at 49% headed, which was 17 percentage points head of normal. Condition ratings were up 1 point to 31% good/excellent, though a 2 point increase in poor/very poor ratings to 37% of the crop was also noted.

Forecasts have precipitation in some of the drier areas of the US Plains, but it could come too late for some of the hard red winter crop. That precipitation could even include snow in some areas, potentially damaging HRW crop development. A major private wheat crop scouting tour gets underway next week.

USDA tallied US wheat export shipments at 434,204 tonnes for the week ended April 30. That was 17.43% above the week prior and 5.44% above the same week last year. US marketing year exports since June 1 are 22.29 MMT, which is now 11.96% above the same period last year and slightly ahead of USDA expectations.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended higher on Monday, supported by strength across the broader oilseed complex and gains in vegetable oil markets. Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil both trended higher yesterday, underpinning canola values…while concerns about uneven planting progress in parts of North America added a layer of support. European rapeseed was higher as well.

Crude oil futures also advanced on Monday, driven by renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which raised the risk of supply disruptions.

July canola finished Monday up $2.50 at $758.80/tonne, and November was up $5 at $763.20.

For today… canola futures are trading $1 to $2/tonne lower this morning. Benchmark July canola futures are off $1.60 right now at $757.20/tonne.

The Persian Gulf region remains a Trump triggered quagmire with the US-Iran ceasefire agreement clearly in jeopardy, and the clown in the White House looking for an exit from his unpopular war while trying to maintain some form credibility…which is obviously blown. But commodity markets, led by energy, are pulling back this morning despite no evidence the Trump war of choice with Iran will end anytime soon.

But with crude oil valuation elevated…still a key source of price support for world vegoil and oilseed markets at this time, including our canola. Multi-year high CBOT soyoil pricing continues to advance canola crush margins here to record high levels…another record ICE canola crush margin set Monday at $402.18/tonne for May according to exchange data, compared to $336.75/t a month ago and $102.63/t a year ago.

CBOT soy complex and EU rapeseed futures are edging back down a bit this morning from previous rally gains.

Malaysian palm oil futures were still higher overnight though, notching a three-week peak. The upside was supported by a weaker ringgit and optimism over Malaysia s biodiesel policy. Kuala Lumpur is reportedly set to roll out B15 biodiesel, from the current B10, starting June 1, with 19 plants expected to begin production, a move aimed at reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports amid soaring oil prices.

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