U.S. fertilizer exports to Canada unlikely to be blocked: analyst

SASKATOON — A fertilizer industry analyst doubts the United States will ever block phosphate exports to Canada.

Agriculture officials in the U.S. have floated the idea of restricting exports and creating a fertilizer strategic reserve.

Related story: Can Canada produce its own supply of phosphate for fertilizer?

Josh Linville, vice-president of fertilizer with StoneX, thinks that is an ill-conceived idea.

“Not only do I think it’s short-sighted, I think it kind of lacks a little bit of understanding of how fertilizer works,” he said.

Oil markets have strategic reserves, but oil can be stored a long time.

“When it comes to fertilizer, even under the best conditions it doesn’t last that long,” he said.

Canada does not produce any phosphate fertilizer. Farmers in this country are heavily reliant on imports from the U.S.

Canada imported an average of 1.46 million tonnes of monoammonium phosphate (MAP), 92,027 tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and 518,232 tonnes of ammonium phosphate annually during the 2018 to 2023 period, according to Fertilizer Canada.

Read Also

Almost all of that came from the U.S.

But U.S. supplies are tight these days, which has prompted some farm groups in that country to question why U.S. fertilizer companies are shipping product to Canada.

Phosphate supplies were tight even before Mosaic announced it was slashing production rates in half at its Bartow, Florida and Faustina, Louisiana plants due to soaring sulfur prices, which is a key feedstock ingredient.

MAP and DAP prices are up 15 per cent over year-ago levels in the U.S. market while nitrogen fertilizer prices have jumped a lot more than that, according to DTN.

John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis with the American Farm Bureau Federation, thinks America should strongly consider restricting its fertilizer exports.

“In times like today, you start to wonder — do we need strategic reserves?” he recently told delegates attending the 2026 Agri-Pulse Ag & Food Policy Summit in Washington, D.C.

The U.S. exports 10 to 12 million tonnes of all types of fertilizer per year with much of that heading north. Canada accounted for 38 per cent of all U.S. fertilizer exports in 2025.

Newton said he and bureau president Zippy Duvall have met with John Boozman, chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, where they mentioned the idea of establishing a strategic fertilizer reserve.

Linville thinks if there was any blocking of exports it wouldn’t be with Canada because the fertilizer market in this part of the world is North American in scope.

“If we were to cut off our phosphate shipments to Canada, I think there would be a massive uproar and I don’t think that’s a fight that either side wants,” he said.

In the meantime, U.S. farmers are crossing their fingers that there may be some phosphate supply relief on the horizon.

More than 50 state agriculture groups and eight national organizations recently sent a letter to the International Trade Commission (ITC) urging the agency to revoke countervailing duties on imports of phosphate fertilizer from Morocco and Russia.

The ITC imposed the duties in 2021 at the behest of The Mosaic Company, a petition that was later supported by J.R. Simplot.

The companies complained the U.S. market was being flooded with unfairly subsidized foreign product.

The ITC agreed and assessed duties that initially ranged from nine to 47 per cent, although those rates have changed over time.

Those duties are now being examined by the ITC under a sunset review process. The farm organizations are asking the commission to revoke the duties.

“Maintaining the phosphate fertilizer (countervailing duties) will allow a small set of powerful corporations to continue to limit supply options for farmers,” said their letter.

“This has already prevented farmers from accessing the tools that meet their crop production needs and resulted in lower yields and negative economic impacts.”

The American Soybean Association estimates the duties have increased the cost of phosphate fertilizer for U.S. farmers by US$6.9 billion over the past five years.

The farm groups said the U.S. does not have sufficient domestic phosphate production to meet agricultural demand on its own. Farmers must rely on imports to fill the gap in supply.

“When import duties substantially restrict that access, supply tightens and prices rise,” they stated in the letter to the ITC.

“Eliminating these duties would help restore balance to fertilizer markets by providing immediate relief to growers facing elevated input costs and a lack of availability.”

The sunset review is expected to progress over the next year with a final decision expected in the spring of 2027.

Linville said farmers are mistaken if they believe that eliminating the duties will lead to a flood of imports from Russia and Morocco, pushing prices back down to 2020 levels.

He said global phosphate supplies are “insanely tight” and that prices for the product in New Orleans are among the cheapest in the world today.

“If you’ve got a limited number of tonnes to ship to the world, why would you ship it to the cheapest spot in the world?” asked Linville.