U.S.-China trade deal may re-route Brazilian farm exports

SAO PAULO, Brazil (Reuters) — A deal for China to buy more U.S. agricultural goods could prompt Brazil to exploit gaps left by U.S. shipments in other markets as Washington focuses exports on Brazil’s top trading partner, according to industry experts.

Estimates of the impact on Brazil’s farm sector from the agreement announced last month by the White House could be premature, though the competitiveness of Brazil could result in the country pushing in to other markets, the experts said.

Brazil’s agricultural exports to China reached US$55.22 billion in 2025 — about one-third of the sector’s total overseas sales last year — according to government data. Soybeans accounted for $34.5 billion of that total, followed by meat at $9.82 billion.

The White House estimates additional Chinese purchases of U.S. soy at 25 million tonnes and, if they materialize, Brazil would likely redirect its own trade flows, brokerage Stag International said.

“A Chinese soybean purchase program of 25 million tonnes would mainly displace buyers outside China toward Brazil and other origins,” the brokerage said in a report.

Read Also

According to Stag, Brazil remains structurally competitive and, with a forecast record crop of more than 180 million tonnes in 2026, should continue to capture significant demand outside China.

Ironically, Brazil could boost beef exports to the United States if the North American country — facing tight supply — channels more of its product to China.

“In principle, if the renewal of U.S. plant approvals (by China) is confirmed, there could be interest from the United States in recapturing part of its share in the Chinese market. Given the large shortfall in U.S. production to meet domestic demand, opportunities could emerge for other countries, such as Brazil, to expand sales to the U.S.,” said Paulo Mustefaga, chief executive officer of industry group Abrafrigo.

China renewed more than 400 expired export licenses for U.S. beef processors, according to the Chinese customs website, after U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping concluded a summit in Beijing.

“It is worth noting that the United States, like Brazil, is also subject to a quota on beef exports under safeguard measures (by China), which should limit any expansion of U.S. sales to the Chinese market,” Mustefaga added.