AAFC adjusts grain/oilseed balance sheets slightly
Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Updated estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released Feb. 19, included only minor revisions to the supply and demand projections for the country’s major crop.
The government agency upped its call for both 2024/25 and 2025/26 canola ending stocks by 50,000 tonnes, now estimating carryout at 1.300 million and 1.000 million tonnes respectively. If realized, both years would still be well below the 2.748 million tonnes of canola on hand at the end of 2023/24.
Meanwhile, wheat ending stocks were lowered, with the country’s 2024/25 wheat carryout down by 150,000 tonnes from the December estimate at 4.400 million tonnes and 2025/26 ending stocks down by 50,000 tonnes at 4.500 million tonnes.
Statistics Canada will release its first planting projections for the 2025/26 crop on March 12.
February estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
| Grains and oilseeds | |||||||
| Production | Exports | ||||||
| 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | ||
| Feb | Jan | Feb | Jan | ||||
| All wheat | 35.195 | 35.025 | 34.958 | 26.050 | 25.900 | 26.150 | |
| Durum | 5.322 | 5.152 | 5.870 | 4.550 | 4.400 | 4.900 | |
| Barley | 8.600 | 8.600 | 8.144 | 2.900 | 2.900 | 3.000 | |
| Corn | 15.100 | 15.100 | 15.345 | 2.100 | 2.000 | 2.300 | |
| Oats | 3.510 | 3.510 | 3.358 | 2.320 | 2.250 | 2.320 | |
| Canola | 17.500 | 17.500 | 17.845 | 5.500 | 5.500 | 7.500 | |
| Flaxseed | 0.260 | 0.260 | 0.258 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.250 | |
| Soybeans | 6.900 | 6.900 | 7.568 | 4.950 | 4.850 | 5.500 | |
| TOTAL | 87.850 | 87.680 | 88.048 | 44.205 | 43.885 | 47.180 | |
| Domestic Usage | Ending Stocks | ||||||
| 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | ||
| Feb | Jan | Feb | Jan | ||||
| All wheat | 9.170 | 9.050 | 9.113 | 4.500 | 4.650 | 4.400 | |
| Durum | 0.897 | 0.777 | 0.802 | 0.500 | 0.650 | 0.600 | |
| Barley | 5.750 | 5.750 | 5.695 | 0.750 | 0.750 | 0.700 | |
| Corn | 15.100 | 15.200 | 15.141 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | |
| Oats | 1.110 | 1.190 | 1.100 | 0.500 | 0.470 | 0.400 | |
| Canola | 12.400 | 12.400 | 11.942 | 1.000 | 0.950 | 1.300 | |
| Flaxseed | 0.090 | 0.090 | 0.092 | 0.070 | 0.070 | 0.090 | |
| Soybeans | 2.450 | 2.450 | 2.465 | 0.525 | 0.550 | 0.575 | |
| TOTAL | 46.581 | 46.642 | 45.945 | 9.545 | 9.640 | 9.575 | |
| Pulse and Special Crops | |||||||
| Production | Exports | ||||||
| 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | ||
| Feb | Jan | Feb | Jan | ||||
| Dry peas | 3.050 | 3.050 | 2.997 | 2.400 | 2.400 | 2.400 | |
| Lentils | 2.385 | 2.385 | 2.431 | 2.200 | 2.200 | 2.100 | |
| Dry beans | 0.385 | 0.385 | 0.424 | 0.390 | 0.390 | 0.400 | |
| Chickpeas | 0.245 | 0.245 | 0.287 | 0.175 | 0.175 | 0.165 | |
| Mustard | 0.130 | 0.130 | 0.192 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.095 | |
| Canaryseed | 0.140 | 0.140 | 0.185 | 0.125 | 0.125 | 0.120 | |
| Sunflower | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.051 | 0.035 | 0.035 | 0.040 | |
| TOTAL | 6.410 | 6.410 | 6.568 | 5.425 | 5.425 | 5.320 | |
| Domestic Usage | Ending Stocks | ||||||
| 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | ||
| Feb | Jan | Feb | Jan | ||||
| Dry peas | 0.660 | 0.660 | 0.532 | 0.475 | 0.375 | 0.425 | |
| Lentils | 0.265 | 0.245 | 0.266 | 0.335 | 0.365 | 0.340 | |
| Dry beans | 0.060 | 0.060 | 0.059 | 0.060 | 0.060 | 0.055 | |
| Chickpeas | 0.085 | 0.085 | 0.081 | 0.135 | 0.140 | 0.110 | |
| Mustard | 0.039 | 0.044 | 0.040 | 0.155 | 0.145 | 0.155 | |
| Canaryseed | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.019 | 0.090 | 0.090 | 0.090 | |
| Sunflower | 0.065 | 0.065 | 0.066 | 0.155 | 0.160 | 0.145 | |
| TOTAL | 1.189 | 1.174 | 1.063 | 1.405 | 1.335 | 1.320 | |
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Source: Farmtario.com