AAFC adjusts monthly estimates, cites caution for canola exports
Glacier Farm Media | MarketsFarm – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada adjusted its latest supply and demand estimates issued on Dec. 19. This followed the updated Statistics Canada figures from two weeks ago.
One of the most notable numbers in the December outlook for principal field crops was AAFC holding its call on canola exports for 2024/25 at 7.50 million tonnes, despite StatCan cutting production to 17.85 million from 18.98 million. The AAFC’s report explained the department did so because “…the impact of China’s announced anti-dumping investigation on Canadian canola remaining unknown at this time.”
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As well, AAFC listed five factors for the canola market needs to keep an eye on: the strength of China’s buying; farmer delivery pace; crush pace; possible tariff and non-tariffs barriers for seed, oil and meal; and the size of the soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina.
AAFC reduced its domestic use projection for 2024/25 canola to 11.94 million tonnes from 12.13 million in November. Combined with smaller production, that led the department to drop canola ending stocks to 1.25 million tonnes from 2.20 million.
With 2024/25 all wheat production being nudged higher by StatCan to 34.96 million tonnes from 34.29 million, AAFC upped exports to 26.15 million tonnes versus November’s 25.70 million. Also, domestic use rose to 9.10 million tonnes from 8.73 million. Ending stocks were eased back to 4.45 million tonnes from 4.60 million.
Among the lentils, AAFC lowered ending stocks for dry peas to 325,000 from November’s 450,000 tonnes. Lentils were cut as well, with the December figure at 350,000 tonnes from 475,000 the previous month.
| Grains and oilseeds | |||||||
| Production | Exports | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| Dec | Nov | Dec | Nov | ||||
| All wheat | 34.958 | 34.293 | 32.946 | 26.150 | 25.700 | 25.334 | |
| Durum | 5.870 | 6.033 | 4.087 | 4.900 | 4.900 | 3.558 | |
| Barley | 8.144 | 7.600 | 8.905 | 2.890 | 2.750 | 3.064 | |
| Corn | 15.345 | 15.168 | 15.421 | 2.100 | 2.000 | 1.969 | |
| Oats | 3.358 | 3.017 | 2.643 | 2.230 | 2.150 | 2.377 | |
| Canola | 17.845 | 18.981 | 19.192 | 7.500 | 7.500 | 6.683 | |
| Flaxseed | 0.258 | 0.265 | 0.273 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.211 | |
| Soybeans | 7.568 | 7.197 | 6.981 | 5.500 | 5.200 | 4.899 | |
| TOTAL | 88.048 | 87.015 | 86.871 | 46.792 | 45.732 | 44.735 | |
| Domestic Usage | Ending Stocks | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| Dec | Nov | Dec | Nov | ||||
| All wheat | 9.099 | 8.734 | 8.715 | 4.450 | 4.600 | 4.615 | |
| Durum | 0.752 | 0.766 | 0.701 | 0.650 | 0.800 | 0.407 | |
| Barley | 5.705 | 5.402 | 5.515 | 0.800 | 0.700 | 1.152 | |
| Corn | 15.541 | 15.564 | 15.872 | 2.000 | 2.100 | 1.996 | |
| Oats | 1.190 | 0.930 | 1.114 | 0.409 | 0.400 | 0.442 | |
| Canola | 11.942 | 12.128 | 11.894 | 1.250 | 2.200 | 2.748 | |
| Flaxseed | 0.092 | 0.090 | 0.127 | 0.090 | 0.100 | 0.164 | |
| Soybeans | 2.481 | 2.460 | 2.227 | 0.600 | 0.550 | 0.563 | |
| TOTAL | 46.449 | 45.627 | 45.793 | 9.685 | 10.735 | 11.772 | |
| Pulse and Special Crops | |||||||
| Production | Exports | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| Dec | Nov | Dec | Nov | ||||
| Dry peas | 2.997 | 3.160 | 2.609 | 2.400 | 2.400 | 2.401 | |
| Lentils | 2.431 | 2.593 | 1.801 | 2.100 | 2.100 | 1.674 | |
| Dry beans | 0.424 | 0.352 | 0.339 | 0.400 | 0.355 | 0.408 | |
| Chickpeas | 0.287 | 0.327 | 0.159 | 0.175 | 0.190 | 0.183 | |
| Mustard | 0.192 | 0.211 | 0.171 | 0.100 | 0.110 | 0.096 | |
| Canaryseed | 0.185 | 0.162 | 0.112 | 0.125 | 0.135 | 0.112 | |
| Sunflower | 0.051 | 0.036 | 0.092 | 0.035 | 0.033 | 0.030 | |
| TOTAL | 6.568 | 6.841 | 5.284 | 5.335 | 5.323 | 4.903 | |
| Domestic Usage | Ending Stocks | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| Dec | Nov | Dec | Nov | ||||
| Dry peas | 0.632 | 0.639 | 0.586 | 0.325 | 0.450 | 0.299 | |
| Lentils | 0.246 | 0.258 | 0.265 | 0.350 | 0.475 | 0.165 | |
| Dry beans | 0.059 | 0.062 | 0.061 | 0.055 | 0.030 | 0.020 | |
| Chickpeas | 0.086 | 0.087 | 0.087 | 0.100 | 0.125 | 0.030 | |
| Mustard | 0.045 | 0.043 | 0.042 | 0.145 | 0.155 | 0.088 | |
| Canaryseed | 0.014 | 0.011 | 0.013 | 0.090 | 0.060 | 0.044 | |
| Sunflower | 0.066 | 0.068 | 0.066 | 0.150 | 0.145 | 0.175 | |
| TOTAL | 1.148 | 1.168 | 1.120 | 1.215 | 1.440 | 0.821 | |
– With files from Phil Franz-Warkentin, Glacier Farm Media
Source: Farmtario.com