AAFC ups canola exports, but leaves ending stocks unchanged

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Canadian canola exports in 2024/25 will be at least a million tonnes above earlier projections, but ending stocks remain to be seen as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada had to make some creative calculations in their latest supply/demand report.

With just over two months left in the marketing year, canola exports have already topped the previous target of 7.5 million tonnes, accounting for the upward revision to 8.5 million tonnes in the tables released May 21. However, AAFC left their call for 2024/25 ending stocks unchanged at 1.3 million tonnes.

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To make calculations work, AAFC is now using a feed, waste and dockage estimate of negative 609,000 tonnes. The numbers are “expected to be updated, pending revisions from Statistics Canada in upcoming releases.”

New crop canola carryout for 2025/26 was left unchanged at 2.0 million tonnes, despite adjustments to the domestic crush forecast.

Canola crush for 2025/26 is now forecast at 11.0 million tonnes, down from last month’s estimate of 12.0 million tonnes, on tighter supplies and heightened uncertainty over proposed tariffs and renewable energy mandates. “The forecast is tentative and may be significantly revised depending on ongoing tariff discussions and resulting impacts on world trade,” said AAFC adding “if current trade actions have only a marginal impact on world vegetable oil and protein meal markets, Canadian crush plants are forecast to operate at full capacity due to strong world demand.

May estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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