AM Market Report – March 10, 2026

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures started lower in overnight trade, then seemed to be gradually clawing its way back up…But now again trading $2/tonne weaker this morning.

Chicago soybean futures started lower overnight, but have in the past hour turned 2 to 3 cents/bu higher, with meal and soyoil also in the green.

CBOT corn futures are also coming up off overnight session lows, but are still 1 to 2 cents weaker this morning.

US wheat markets are mixed…Minnie spring wheat futures are down 3 to 4 cents (though off overnight lows), but the winter wheats are fractionally to a penny stronger.

Traders are watching cautiously as grain/oilseed price action generally on Monday produced technically bearish buying exhaustion tails on daily bar charts, which suggest the bulls have run out of gas in this round of price-uptrend campaigns. The exhaustion tails are also clues those markets have put in near-term tops. No guarantees of anything in these extremely volatile, highly geopolitical-driven times. But if the market bulls do come back to life and push prices above Monday s highs, it could be Katie bar the door to the upside for these markets. Who knows right now.

Also note today…the USDA releases its monthly US/world supply/demand report today (11:00 am CDT). But the report is not expected to post any significant shifts in US corn, soybean or wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg on average look for US corn, wheat and soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to move by 5 million bu or less. It will be worth watching to see if USDA tweaks its forecast for US soybean exports after US President Donald Trump in early February said China was considering buying an additional 8 MMT of the US crop after completing an earlier pledge to purchases 12 MMT.

Latest on the war in Iran…

– Trump said he predicts the war would end very soon, but not this week.
– He said some oil-related sanctions would be waived, escorts provided in Hormuz.
– Trump says US will hit Iran 20 times harder if it attacks ships in Persian Gulf.
– Gulf countries deepen oil-output cuts, with Hormuz still near-shut.
– Nymex and Brent crude oil prices retreat sharply from Monday s highs, now below $90.
– Turkey said NATO will deploy a Patriot system to its Eastern region to shore up defenses.
– Missiles were launched from Iran toward Israel and sirens sounded; no known casualties.
– Saudi Arabia has cut oil output by 2 to 2.5 million barrels/day; UAE by about 0.5-0.8 million/day.

– Kuwait cuts oil output by about 0.5 million/day; Iraq has cut output by about 2.9 million/day.

In Other News

– Iran says oil blockade will continue until attacks end, Trump threatens to escalate strikes… US President Donald Trump on Monday said the US and Israel were making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict very soon, curtailing an oil-price surge. Trump said he didn t believe the fighting would be over this week, but insisted the operation was ahead of schedule. The US Navy will escort tankers out of the Middle East to maintain a steady oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, he added. Today, Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco said it would be able to ramp up a pipeline that can take crude to the kingdom s west coast…thus bypassing Hormuz…to full capacity in a few days, Bloomberg reported.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they would not allow “one litre of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue, prompting a warning from Trump that the US would hit Iran much harder if it blocked exports from the vital energy-producing region. The heightened rhetoric did little to quell a sharp retreat in crude prices and a rally in global shares, which came after Trump expressed confidence in a swift end to hostilities even after Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader in a signal of defiance.

The crude oil market has seen violent whipsaw price action this week so far…running up just below the US $120/barrel at point on Monday until it dropped to now close to US $87/barrel.

A precious resource…water

It took 10 days of war in Iran to drive oil prices to their highest level in four years. Iran is more than willing to use surging energy prices as leverage, banking that rising costs could compel the US and Israel to back down from their attacks.

But oil isn t the only weapon in the country s arsenal. On Sunday, Bahrain said Iran s drones damaged its desalination plant, marking the first time the Islamic Republic had struck at a neighbour s water supply. Hundreds of desalination plants stretch along the Persian Gulf coast…all of them within reach of Iranian drones and missiles. If those facilities collapse, 100 million people across the region would lose their lifeline to drinking water.

Countries in the Gulf have to contend with extremely dry climates, few lakes or rivers, rare precipitation and depleting reserves of groundwater because of climate change. As a result, they re massively dependent on vast quantities of water pumped from desalination plants, which remove the salt from briny seawater. Desalination is crucial for the Gulf s flashy tourism draws: Without it, there d be no golf courses in Riyadh, no ski resorts in Dubai, no World Cup in Qatar. But the plants also keep the Gulf s rapidly growing cities hydrated.

In Kuwait, about 90% of the drinking water comes from desalination; in Saudi Arabia, it s roughly 70%, and in Oman, closer to 86%. Bahrain and Qatar are pretty much wholly reliant on desalination technology for their water needs, and have little by way of backup reserves. If Iranian strikes knocked their plants offline, they d run out of drinking water within days.

– G-7 meets today to discuss releasing oil reserves… Group of Seven energy ministers will meet in Paris today as they continue to debate a possible release of oil reserves to stabilize markets, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said and as reported by Bloomberg. The group, currently presided by France, said on Monday it was ready to take any steps needed to support global energy supplies. The G-7 stopped short of calling for a release of stockpiles, however, and prices have since declined sharply with US President Trump hinting at an early end to the conflict. We are gathering the G-7 energy ministers today here in Paris; we are going through the process but obviously all options are on the table, including an emergency oil stock release, Lescure said on the sidelines of a nuclear energy conference. We are ready.

– Indian edible oil buyers move to secure prompt shipments as prices surge… Rising vegetable oil prices and freight rates are pushing Indian buyers toward prompt shipments amid concerns deliveries of newly purchased soyoil and sunflower oil could be ?delayed by the Middle East conflict. As the world’s largest importer ?of vegetable oils, India’s move to curb fresh purchases could limit further upside in prices of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil, although it may tighten local supplies in April.

Local edible oil prices have jumped in ?recent days, in line with a rally in global markets, but refiners are reluctant ?to make overseas purchases at the higher levels, said a Mumbai-based dealer ?with a global trade house. “Buyers are not confident that prices will sustain, or that soyoil ?and sunflower oil suppliers will be able to deliver on time, as freight rates are rising,” ?he said.

India buys soyoil mainly from Argentina and Brazil, and sunflower oil largely from Russia and Ukraine, with typical sea voyage times from South America to India of over six weeks and about three to four weeks ?from the Black Sea. India, which meets nearly two-thirds of its edible oil demand through imports, ?also buys palm oil ?from Indonesia, Malaysia and ?Thailand. Palm oil shipments could meet Indian demand, but buyers remain reluctant, as recent price rallies have pushed refining margins into negative territory.

– Asian biofuels markets hit by war in Iran... Another corner of the energy market is being threatened by the war in Iran, as prices for methanol…essential to biofuel production…surge in Southeast Asia. The spike risks crimping output of crop-based fuels and adding to the region s energy crunch, Bloomberg said in a report. Indonesia is the world s biggest producer of palm oil, a large portion of which is converted into biodiesel to meet the country s steep blending targets. Methanol is key to that process, helping to break down the crop and convert it into fuel. However, prices for the alcohol have climbed as ship traffic grinds to a near halt amid the Middle east conflict, crimping vital commodity shipments…much of which often head to Asia, said the report.

– APK-Inform cuts Ukraine’s 2026 oilseeds harvest forecast… Analysts at APK-Inform have cut their outlook for Ukraine’s sunflower and rapeseed harvests. Ukraine is a major global producer of both crops and dominates the world sunflower oil market. APK-Inform now expects the 2026 sunflower seed harvest at 13.35 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 13.69 MMT and compared with a record low 10.8 MMT in 2025. The consultancy said farmers were likely to favour sunflower in 2026 thanks to high soil moisture after winter and because the crop is attractive amid a possible fertiliser shortage.

Rapeseed output could total 3.83 MMT, while soybean production may reach 5.79 MMT this year, it said. A month earlier, the consultancy had forecast 3.88 MMT of rapeseed and 5.57 MMT of soybeans.

– Non-US trade propels Port of Vancouver to record cargo volumes… The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority says a record amount of cargo flowed through its terminals last year as shippers sought to grow overseas markets far from an increasingly protectionist United States, according to a CBC report. Freight volumes at the Port of Vancouver rose eight per cent to 170.4 MMT in 2025, according to the port authority. The boost was driven by surging exports of grain, crude oil and potash as well as higher container and auto trade, all of which reached record levels.

A bumper crop allowed wheat shipments to push bulk grain exports to a record high, with Western Canadian wheat reaching 35 countries last year in regions ranging from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. Crude oil exports from the port nearly doubled as the Trans Mountain expansion…the pipeline between Edmonton and Burnaby, B.C., enjoyed its first full year of operation as a twinned pipe in 2025…threw open the floodgate to fossil fuel shipments bound for China and South Korea. Container levels jumped 9%, fuelled by a big rise in imports of household goods from Asia to beat a container record set in 2021 during the height of the COVID-19 consumer buying frenzy.

Sharp declines in cruise ship visitors, forest products and canola exports due to Chinese tariffs…since eased…mitigated some of the gains.

Amid an ongoing trade war with the US, Statistics Canada said last month that non-US exports increased 17% in 2025, while exports to America fell 6%.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Monday up 239.25 points at 47,740.80, while the S&P 500 ended 55.97 points higher at 6,795.99. Early Tuesday, the March Dow Jones Futures are down 83 points.

US stock markets were higher overnight, but have turned lower now, while European and Asian stock markets are still trending higher this morning. Canada s TSX stock index futures has followed global sentiment higher.

Investor sentiment late yesterday and overnight was lifted after US President Donald Trump said the war in Middle East could come to ?a quick end. But hopes of a speedy resolution to the conflict were tempered by defiant statements from Iran s military indicating it would continue fighting. Plus…who can really believe anything Trump says as his narratives change by the day.

The March US Dollar Index is down 0.541 at 98.630. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 73.76 US cents.

April crude oil futures are down $5.94 at US $88.83/barrel. Oil prices have fallen hard after hitting a more than three-year high yesterday as Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.

Clearly Trump s comments about a short-lived war have calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to ?the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today, ?said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding that the market was underappreciating risks at these price levels.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures started weaker overnight, but have turned slightly higher now this morning…currently trading 2 to 3 cents/bu higher. Bean futures posted losses of 4 to 5 cents in the front months on Monday, retreating from overnight highs on a turn to losses in crude oil. Soymeal futures are mostly $2 to $4/ton higher this morning after finishing down 50 cents to $4.30/ton on Monday.

Soyoil futures are edging 9 to 18 points higher right now after closing 12 to 54 points lower yesterday. Crude oil closed Monday day down $5.85/barrel and more than $33 off the Sunday/Monday overnight highs. Crude is down another $5.94 this morning. President Trump signaled the that the ongoing conflict may be nearing an end late on Monday, which pushed prices further.

US soybean ending stocks are estimated to be trimmed by 6 million bu to 344 million bu in this morning s USDA supply/demand report (11 am CT release). Brazilian soybean production is estimated to be down 1 MMT to 179.06 MMT.

USDA export inspections data showed US soybean shipments 879,190 tonnes shipped in the week ended Mar 5. That was down 24.3% from last week, but up 2.5% vs the same week last year. US marketing year shipments have totaled 27.09 MMT since Sept 1, which is down 29.6% yr/yr.

Brazilian FOB soybean pricing is discounted $1.30-1.60/bu below US Gulf values.

The trade continues to wait for any signs of new, significant demand for US beans from China ahead of the expected face-to-face meeting between President Trump and President Xi at month end.

Chicago corn futures are down 1 to 2 cents/bu this morning, but up off their overnight session lows. The corn market finished 5 to 9 cents lower in the front months on Monday, well off the overnight highs. Crude oil closed yesterday down $5.85 and more than $33 off the overnight highs. It is down another $5.94 this morning.

USDA reported US corn export shipments at 1.518 MMT for the week ended Mar 5. That was 18.4% below the week prior and 17.7% shy of the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 41.21 MMT since Sept 1, which is now 41.54% above the same period last year.

USDA s supply/demand report is out later this morning, with traders looking for 2.136 billion bu of US corn ending stocks, up 9 million bu if realized. Brazilian production is expected to be up 1 MMT to 132.07 MMT.

Traders are monitoring crop weather in Argentina and Brazil. Stateside, the trade is watching US weather ahead of planting, while fertilizer price and availability might lead to at least some adjustments for US acreage away from corn. The USDA s Prospective Plantings report is out March 31st, along with Quarterly Grain Stocks.

US wheat markets are mixed this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are trending 3 to 4 cents/bu weaker, HRW is fractionally to a penny higher, while SRW is flat to 2 cents higher. The US wheat complex posted Monday losses, with exception to the spring wheat contracts SRW futures fell 13 to 14 cents in the nearbys…HRW futures were 3 to 4 cents in the red at the close…while spring wheat was up 3 cents in the front months.

Monday s Export Inspections report showed 496,108 tonnes of US wheat shipped in the week ended Mar 5. That was 39.94% above the week prior and more than double the same week last year. The US marketing year total is now 19.12 MMT of US wheat shipped since June 1, which is 20.2% above the same period last year.

USDA supply/demand data will be out later this morning, with traders looking for 926 million bu of US wheat stocks, down 5 million bu from last month.

The state crop progress report from Kanas showed winter wheat conditions slipping another 2 percentage points in the latest week to 56% good/excellent.

Parts of the US hard red winter region are dry, with limited relief in the near-term forecast. Conversely, precipitation forecasts are generally more favorable this week for portions of the US SRW region.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures posted a weaker close for the first time in March trading on Monday, as wild early strength in crude oil disintegrated yesterday. The canola market opened sharply higher in Sunday/Monday overnight trading as the escalating Middle East conflict pushed crude oil prices to well above $100/barrel…the highest since 2022…providing strong support to vegetable oil markets.

However, the rally proved short-lived. As trading progressed, crude oil prices retreated far away from their earlier highs, removing a key source of support for the oilseed complex. The pullback in energy markets prompted profit-taking among traders, and canola turned lower.

Chicago soyoil ended lower on the day, while palm oil was mixed. European rapeseed did finish higher.

May canola dropped $4.40 on Monday to close at $726.40/tonne after peaking at $758, while November lost $7.30 yesterday to close at $718.70.

For today… canola futures are posting $2/tonne declines this morning, failing to respond to the modest CBOT soy complex gains this morning. Nearby May canola futures are down $2.10 at $724.30/tonne as overbought chart conditions appear to have inspired some corrective selling. May canola traded as high as $758/t yesterday before dropping off to settle lower yesterday and moving slightly weaker again this morning.

The situation for canola could get ugly in the coming days if the Iran war premium in crude oil erodes further. Remember that crude oil prices have been the primary driver of the rise in global vegoil markets which have supported canola values. The violent surge in energy markets Sunday evening (that inspired similar gains in grain and oilseed markets) was likely driven to extremes by margin call-related short-covering. Markets are calming down…for the moment.

Technically, canola market pricing is still trending higher, even if we have some pretty wild price swings to start this week so far. But the overbought feel to this market had me yesterday morning suggesting an incremental cash canola sale to reward the rally. These remain very uncertain geo-political times which can swing markets aggressively in either direction. Still feel cash pricing in deferred spring delivery positions at $16/bu is worth boosting old crop canola sales to as much as 70% done.

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