AM Market Report – March 5, 2026

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures were trading modestly weaker overnight but has turned now to small gains this morning…around $1/tonne higher.

Chicago soybean futures are edging 1 to 2 cents/bu higher, supported by fresh gains in soyoil (fresh contract highs)…meal slightly weaker.

CBOT corn futures are posting gains of 2 to 3 cents this morning.

US wheat markets are trending higher…spring wheat futures are up 4 cents, and the winter wheats gaining 4 to 7 cents.

US grain markets saw corrective rebounds overnight following the selling pressure seen on Wednesday. US corn, soybean and winter wheat market bulls are keeping alive price uptrends on their daily bar charts.

The Iranian war and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz remain the featured drivers of crude oil moving sharply higher. Soyoil remains elevated, underpinning the soybean complex, as well as our canola market.

In Other News

– StatCan projects 2026 Canadian crop acreage… According to their first estimate of the year, Statistics Canada this morning forecast Canadian farmers will plant more canola, barley, soybeans and corn in 2026, while they anticipate area seeded to wheat, oats, lentils and dry peas to decrease compared with the previous year.

Readers be aware… StatCan s crop survey data was collected from December 12, 2025, to January 16, 2026, and included about 8,200 farmers. Respondents were asked to report their planting intentions for grains, oilseeds and special crops at that time…numbers which may have changed since then. This was the first time seeding intentions were collected in December…which to me makes this data kinda outdated. Nevertheless…

The following table is a recap of Statistics Canada’s March acreage report. Pre-report expectations are provided for comparison purposes. Figures are in million acres.

CROP          PROJECTIONS    2026-27     2025-26    

Barley      6.200 –  7.000     6.441       6.136   

Canola     22.000 – 22.500    21.839      21.623 

Flax        0.600 –  0.650     0.753       0.620      

Lentils     4.100 –  4.300     4.138       4.380      

Oats        2.800 –  3.300     2.903       2.996      

Peas        3.200 –  3.600     3.078       3.510       

Soybeans    5.200 –  5.700     5.890       5.782

All Wheat* 26.900 – 27.300    26.738      27.032     

Durum       5.500 –  6.200     6.378       6.532     

*All wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat seeded in the fall

Wheat

At the national level, farmers anticipate planting 26.7 million acres of wheat in 2026, down 1.1% from the previous year, though still at the higher end of trade expectations. If this anticipation is realized, national wheat area would remain well above the five-year average, despite a decrease from 2025, which would likely be attributable to continued strong global demand.

Producers expect spring wheat area to edge down 0.1% to 18.8 million acres in 2026. They anticipate durum wheat area to decrease 2.4% to 6.4 million acres, while they expect winter wheat area to fall 6.7% to 1.6 million acres.

Canola

Farmers expect canola area to increase 1.0% to 21.8 million acres in 2026, roughly in line with the five-year average, though still below pre-report trade ideas that ranged between 22.0 to 22.5 million acres. Higher anticipated seeded area may be led by strong domestic demand as processing capacity continues to expand. But this number may expand further as the survey of growers occurred way back in December with high import tariffs still restricted export shipping to China…now resolved.

Soybeans

Nationally, farmers anticipate planting 5.9 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up 1.9% from 2025. Manitoba bean acreage is forecast to rise 12.9% to 1.9 million acres. If this expectation is realized, this would be the highest soybean area in the province since 2018, possibly because of low input costs relative to other crops.

Barley and oats

Nationwide, farmers expect barley acreage to rise 5.0% to 6.4 million acres in 2026…though still below trade ideas which ranged between 6.6 to 6.9 million acres. Farmers expect barley area to increase in both Saskatchewan (+7.9% to 2.4 million acres) and Alberta (+5.2% to 3.5 million acres), while they expect it to decline in Manitoba (-1.6% to 304,400 acres).

StatCan expects oat area to fall 3.1% compared with one year earlier to 2.9 million acres in 2026, possibly because of high oat stocks resulting from high production in 2025.

Corn

At the national level, StatCan expects 3.8 million acres planted to corn in 2026, up 1.7% from one year earlier. The increase in corn for grain area is led by Ontario, where more than 60% of all corn for grain in Canada is grown. Farmers anticipate planting 2.3 million acres of corn for grain in 2026, up 5.4% from 2025. If this occurs, it would be a record area for the province, surpassing the previous record set in 2022.

Manitoba corn producers anticipating lower area, falling 5.3% to 586,800 acres, though a level still above the five-year average for the province.

Lentils and dry peas

StatCan estimated 2026 area seeded to lentils to decrease 5.5% compared with one year earlier to 4.1 million acres in 2026, possibly because of high stocks resulting from a large crop production in 2025. The number is higher than trade ideas that ranged between 3.8 and 4.0 million. In Saskatchewan, where almost 90% of Canada’s lentils are grown, farmers expect seeded area to fall 4.3% to 3.6 million acres in 2026. Meanwhile, farmers in Alberta expect lentil area to decrease 13.4% to 489,500 acres.

Farmers across Canada also expect to plant fewer acres of dry peas in 2026; they anticipate area for dry peas to fall 12.3% from 2025 to 3.1 million acres…at the lower end of trade expectations. But perhaps that number climbs in time now that China s 100% import tariff on Canadian peas has since been lifted.

– Western allies being drawn into US/Israel vs Iran conflict… The war in the Middle East has entered its sixth day, as Iran continued to fire missile and drone barrages in response to ongoing attacks from Israel and the US on Thursday. Many Western and European allies of the US and Israel are being indirectly drawn in militarily even as some voice misgivings about the war’s origins and potential for long-lasting repercussions. The decisions involved include allowing the US use of European airbases and protection of the continent’s airspace.

While remarking that the alliance “is not itself involved,” in the conflict, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told Reuters that “without European allies, the US would have found it very difficult to launch this campaign against Iran.” Rutte also said the shooting down of a ballistic missile headed for Turkey on Wednesday by NATO air defences alone wouldn’t trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence clause. Iran on Thursday denied it had fired the missiles, saying it respects the sovereignty of “friendly” Turkey.

Italy…together with Spain, France and the Netherlands…will send naval assets to protect Cyprus soon, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto told parliament in Rome Thursday. Those countries have not independently confirmed Crosetto’s statement. A British airbase on Cyprus was targeted by an Iranian-made drone on Monday, and the UK said it would deploy more military assets there.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said he could not categorically rule out the possibility of Canada getting involved militarily in the conflict, telling a news conference the nation will “stand by our allies when it makes sense.”

– IMF warns of global economic damage from Iran war... International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the war in the Middle East will test global economic resilience and warned that new shocks in different shapes and sizes will keep coming. Georgieva warned that a prolonged conflict could affect energy prices, market sentiment, economic growth and inflation, placing new demands on the shoulders of policymakers everywhere. The IMF is closely monitoring the Middle East conflict, and will incorporate its findings in the World Economic Outlook that will be published in April, Georgieva said.

– Iran war threatens Asia fertilizer supplies...Escalating war in the Middle East has shut down fertilizer plants in the region and severely disrupted shipping routes, potentially curbing supplies to key Asian importers just as farmers gear up for their major cereal planting season. The world’s most populous countries, India and China, as well as key farm product exporters Australia and Indonesia could face pressure on supplies of plant nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers. Shipments from the Middle East are likely to drop not only because transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for about one-third of global trade for the nutrients, has all but stopped, but also due to cuts in production.

Qatar Energy has had to stop production at the world’s largest single-site urea plant, as it lost its source of natural gas feedstock after the company shut down gas output due to attacks on its LNG facilities. At the same time, sulphur output has been cut in other parts of the Middle East. Sulphur is a key ingredient for phosphate fertilisers.

“Since the conflict started the world has effectively lost three of its largest urea exporters and it has lost three of its largest anhydrous exporters…Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia,” said fertiliser analyst Josh Linville of StoneX. “We have lost a significant chunk of the global supply because of this situation.”

The global fertiliser market was already tight, with China restricting exports this year to ensure domestic availability, while producers in Europe have cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas supply. China is likely to expand fertiliser export controls because of the conflict.

– China set crop production targets… China aims to boost grain production capacity to 725 MMT over 2026-2030, prioritizing yield gains through technology, soil protection and seed innovation rather than farmland expansion, government reports said. The reports said authorities will push to raise yield of grain and oilseed crops on large tracts of farmland and maintain stable rice and wheat production, and expand corn and soybean capacity. With limited land and water resources, China will need to sharply increase farming productivity through technology, including investments in machinery and seed innovation, to meet its long-term food security objectives.

Despite last year’s record grain output of 715 MMT, China remains heavily reliant on imports of agricultural products such as soybeans, where its geopolitical rival the US is also its second-largest supplier. The new measures, announced on Thursday in the new five-year plan, come as resource security is put into the spotlight by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which huge quantities of the world’s oil and fertilisers flow, much of it to China.

In a nod to long-running concerns about imports, China’s latest plan also said it would establish “stable and controllable overseas supply channels”, diversify agricultural imports, allow moderate imports of scarce high-quality varieties, and coordinate trade with domestic production.

– Australia, Canada sign new deals… Australia and Canada said they had signed new agreements on critical minerals as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made a landmark address to the Australian parliament, a sign of the developing bond between the “middle powers”. Carney is on a multi-leg trip across the Asia-Pacific region also taking in Japan and India. His stop in Australia included the first address to Australia’s parliament by a Canadian leader since 2007. “In a world of great power rivalry, middle powers have a choice: compete for favour or combine for strength,” he told lawmakers.

Introducing Carney in parliament, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said his address represented the closeness of the ties between the two nations. Albanese told a press conference that Australia would join Canada’s G7 critical minerals production alliance. The G7 alliance is a Canada-led initiative to diversify and secure global critical minerals production and supply. Canada and Australia together produce about a third of global lithium and uranium, as well as more than 40% of global iron ore.

Australia and Canada will also deepen cooperation in areas including defence and maritime security, trade and artificial intelligence, the two leaders said.

– Russian drone strikes foreign cargo ship near Ukraine port... A Russian drone damaged a civilian Panama-flagged vessel that was transporting corn near the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk in the Black Sea Odesa region, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said late on Wednesday. The vessel was hit while enroute out of the port and some of the crew were injured, the ports authority said. Ukraine ships about 90% of its exports via the Odesa port hub. Russia in recent months has been attacking Ukraine’s maritime export arteries, including ports, which are crucial for its foreign trade and the survival of its wartime economy.

– Ukrainian export prices for 2026 rapeseed crop seen rising on weather problems... Export prices for Ukraine’s 2026 rapeseed harvest could rise to US $540-$545/tonne, including transport costs for July-August delivery, against $530-$540 a week earlier, major farmers’ union UAC said on Wednesday. Ukraine, a large European rapeseed grower and exporter, harvested around 3.7 MMT of rapeseed in 2024. The harvest fell to 3.3 MMT in 2025, mostly due to unfavourable weather. “There is a possibility that up to 10% of the area (under rapeseed) may be resown (due to unfavourable weather in winter), and we may have not a lot of rapeseed,” UAC said in a weekly report.

Winter rapeseed traditionally forms the bulk of Ukraine’s rapeseed output. It is sown in autumn and harvested in spring the following year. Scientists from the Ukrainian National Academy of Agrarian Sciences said on Monday that up to 20% of crops in some fields might be lost due to severe frost in February. Temperatures dropped to as low as minus 28 degrees Celsius in some areas last month.

Consultancy APK-Inform said it had revised down its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 rapeseed harvest to 3.7 MMT from 3.9 MMT a month earlier.

– Beijing urges hog producers to focus on capacity control… China has called on hog producers to cut output and rein in production, financial media outlet CLS said, as the country battles a supply glut and sluggish consumer demand in its massive pork sector. At a meeting with hog producers, the agriculture ministry urged them to pursue and achieve production limits set in 2025, as well as set up a registration system to improve control efforts.

December’s decline of 14.6% in China’s pork prices from a year earlier was only the latest slump amid years of falling prices, because of weak demand, a stagnating economy and changing tastes.

Last year, China, the world’s largest hog producer, slaughtered 720 million pigs. In the final quarter of 2025, it produced 15.7 MMT of pork, the highest fourth-quarter tally since 2018.

– Louis Dreyfus begins commissioning new pea protein plant… Louis Dreyfus Company has begun commissioning its new pea protein isolate production facility in Yorkton, SK. The new plant will produce pea protein isolates, a key ingredient used in plant-based foods and other applications. The facility will scale up LDC s existing pea protein offerings and allow the company to meet increasing global demand for plant-based ingredients. In addition to pea protein, the Yorkton facility will also produce pea fibre and a proprietary pea starch that can be used in industries including pet food, building materials and paper manufacturing.

Global demand for pea protein has expanded rapidly in recent years due to its non-allergenic and non-GMO characteristics, as well as its versatility in food products such as plant-based meats, dairy alternatives and nutritional foods. Located in one of the world s largest pea-growing regions, the facility is built at the site of LDC s existing oilseeds processing complex in Yorkton. The new operation is expected to employ about 60 people by the end of 2026.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.14 point on Wednesday to settle at 48,739.41, while the S&P 500 ended up 52.87 points at 6,869.50. Early Thursday, the March Dow Jones Futures are plunging down 401 points.

Global stock markets are sell down this morning as ?an expanding Middle East conflict weighed on market sentiment. Wall Street futures are lower as the conflict entered its sixth day, stoking fears of inflationary pressures that could complicate the US Federal Reserve s monetary policy decisions. Canada s TSX stock index futures are also edging lower even as commodity prices climbed.

Headlines do not point to a near resolution of the Middle East conflict, meaning the risk of further stress remains very much in play, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. Some investors appear willing to jump to the final chapter ahead of time…which is why we see strong gains on the smallest hints of good news. But there may still be more pain on the menu before a convincing rebound.

The March US Dollar Index is up 0.340 at 99.070. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 73.31 US cents.

April crude oil futures have soared up $3.49 at US $78.15/barrel. Oil prices are on the rise again this morning, extending a rally as the escalating US-Israeli war with Iran continued to disrupt supplies, prompting some major producers to cut output and others to take measures to ensure supply security.

The war widened on Wednesday after a US strike hit an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, deepening a crisis that has paralysed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and choked off vital Middle East oil and gas flows. The US submarine strike on the Iranian vessel came as US President Donald Trump pledged to provide insurance and navy escorts to ships exporting oil and gas from the Middle East in a bid to contain soaring energy prices…though no one seems to know how that would work. At least 200 ships, including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers as well as cargo ships, remained at anchor in open waters off the coast of major Gulf producers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The repercussions of the ongoing US-Iran war are being felt across the world, with global fuel prices, European natural gas costs and Asian tanker freight rates all jumping sharply since strikes began last weekend. The transmission of market jitters through the shipping, fuel and power sectors illustrates how interconnected global energy markets remain, despite the push for more home-grown energy supplies and greater energy security in recent years.

China’s government has told the country’s top oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline due to an escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf, Bloomberg reported. Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission called for a temporary suspension of refined product shipments to begin immediately, with some exceptions. China’s curbs on exports reflect a scramble across Asia to prioritize domestic (energy) needs as the crisis in the Middle East deepens, with refiners from Japan to Indonesia and India also cutting back run rates and suspending exports, said the report.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading between 1 and 2 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures rounded out Wednesday s trade with slight weakness, as contracts finished fractionally to 1 cent lower. Soymeal futures are down $1/ton this morning after dropping $2 to $4/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are pressing up into fresh contract highs this morning…up 50 to 68 points.

USDA issued its weekly US Export Sales report this morning…showing 383,500 tonnes of US soybean export sales for the week ended Feb 26…down at the bottom of trade expectations that ranged between 0.3-1 MMT.

US and Chinese trade negotiators will meet in mid-March to lay out plans for President Trump’s summit with China’s Xi Jinping, despite US strikes on Iran. On the agenda will be soybean purchases. This remains a bullish factor until it isn’t. Export demand from China remains a big question mark amid a world of scrambled geopolitics…tied mostly to a chaotic Trump presidency.

Meanwhile, too much rain is slowing parts of Brazil’s soybean harvest and causing some quality concerns in Mato Grosso. Argentina’s crops are getting more rain, growing with some concern, but not enough to worry the market.

Chicago corn futures are gaining 2 to 3 cents this morning. The corn market posted losses of 2 to 3 cents across most contracts on Wednesday. Overall, the corn market has been pressured this week by profit-taking and hedge activities…but trendline support drawn off the January lower remains intact.

USDA this morning reported US corn export sales of 2.023 MMT for the week ended Feb 26…far exceeding trade expectations that ranged between 0.6-1.6 MMT.

EIA reported US ethanol production at an average 1.095 million barrels per day in the week ending Feb 27, equal to a year ago, but down 18,000 bpd during that week. Stocks of ethanol were up 691,000 barrels to 26.337 million barrels.

Traders are watching weather in South America, with mixed near-term rain chances for Argentina and Brazil. Stateside, there are a lot of questions about input availability and cost ahead of spring planting.

US wheat markets are rising this morning…spring wheat futures are up 4 cents, HRW is 5 to 7 cents higher and SRW wheat is gaining 4 to 5 cents. The US wheat complex was lower across the three exchanges on Wednesday…with spring wheat closing 2 to 4 cents in the red yesterday.

USDA this morning reported US wheat export sales of 203,100 tonnes for the week ended Feb 26…down at the lower of trade ideas ranging between 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes.

Portions of US hard and soft red winter growing areas should see more rain this week. While that won t be enough to break drought, it should boost conditions at least in parts of the region ahead of the crop breaking dormancy.

Traders are wary amid slower wheat shipping out of Ukraine caused by ongoing Russian aggression. The military action in Iran is likely also having some impact on shipping from the Black Sea.

Statistics Canada s planting intentions report for Canada out this morning show forecast all wheat plantings at 26.7 million acres, down 1.1% from last year, though still at the higher end of trade expectations. If this anticipation is realized, national wheat area would remain well above the five-year average, despite a decrease from 2025.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures posted modest gains for the third straight day on Wednesday. The advance was largely tied to strength earlier in the week in the broader vegetable oil complex and energy markets. Rising crude oil prices and gains in Chicago soyoil have recently provided underlying support for canola, as vegoils are closely tied to biofuel demand and global energy prices.

However, Wednesday s gains were limited as weakness in other oilseed markets weighed on sentiment. Chicago soyoil was higher again yesterday, but European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were both lower. Advances in the Canadian dollar were also negative for canola.

May canola gained $2.80 yesterday to finish at $709.40/tonne, while new crop November was $3.50 higher at $710.90.

For today… canola futures were fudging between small gains and losses in overnight trade, but are currently resuming their uptrend with modest gains near $1/tonne this morning. Nearby May canola is up $1.60 at $711.00/tonne, its highest level since the end of July…and moving rather convincingly above what had been modest psychological chart resistance at $700. Next level resistance is around $720, then $740 level on the weekly chart. Seems more attainable now.

The backbone of this impressive rally off the December low remains advancing world vegoils…notably US soyoil now at fresh contract and nearing 3-year highs. The Middle East war-related surge higher in energy markets has lent support to the world vegoil sector.

StatCan this morning forecast 2026 Canadian canola area to increase 1.0% to 21.8 million acres, roughly in line with the five-year average, though still below pre-report trade ideas that ranged between 22.0 to 22.5 million acres. Higher anticipated seeded area may be led by strong domestic demand as processing capacity continues to expand. But this number may expand further as the survey of growers occurred way back in December when high import tariffs still restricted export shipping to China…an issue now resolved.

The canola trade awaits the Trump administration s decision on the latest biodiesel mandate. The US Environmental Protections Agency sent its recommendations and a decision on them to the White House, but we await the official announcement on mandated US renewable/biodiesel production volumes and credit/subsidy package. It s still unclear at the moment how Canadian canola could play into that biodiesel mandate. If it s included, then it s a matter of volume and how much its tax credit will be.

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