AM Market Report – November 20, 2025

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In Other News

– Cereals Canada releases wheat report… Cereals Canada published its annual New Wheat Crop report on 2025 Canadian wheat production, which includes information on milling performance, flour/semolina quality and end-product functionality. Canadian farmers grew 36.6 MMT of wheat this year…the majority attaining the top two crop quality grades. Of that total, Cereals Canada anticipates 27.4 MMT will be exported to customers in over 80 international markets.

Wheat protein content was comparable to average. All wheat classes from the 2025 Canadian crops had good test weights and higher than average kernel weights.

Despite variable growing conditions across the Prairies, timely mid-summer rains supported higher-than-average yields. In Eastern Canada, favorable weather throughout the growing season for winter wheat resulted in strong yields and good quality.

Cereals Canada generated the data for the 2025 New Wheat Crop Report through its Harvest Assessment Program. Eastern Canadian wheat was assessed for the first time through a partnership with Grain Farmers Ontario.

– Moe talks maintaining tariff-free trade with the US... Tariff-free trade benefits everyone…that was the message Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe took to Washington this week. Moe met with US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and several other US government representatives, leveraging Saskatchewan s voice to support Canada s broader trade interests. He urged the US to re-engage in discussions with Canada.

During his meetings, Moe emphasized the deep economic integration between Saskatchewan and the US and Canada as a whole. We know we have highly integrated economies. Saskatchewan is very globally connected. And that integrated economy is of in particular importance when it comes to trade with the United States of America.

He talked with the U.S. administration about how tariff-free trade with Canada lowers the cost of living for Americans and how tariffs are driving up inflation. It s important for us to keep the lines and do what we can as a province to keep those lines of communication open with the United States.”

– Trump administration may delay US biofuel import credit cuts as refiners balk… US President Donald Trump’s administration is considering delaying for one or two years its proposed cuts in incentives for imported biofuels amid pressure from US refiners who argue the move could raise costs and tighten fuel supplies. The delay now under discussion could please US domestic oil refiners that have invested in the bio-based diesel sector but would risk frustrating US farmers and biofuel producers.

The proposal for the US Environmental Protection Agency to slash the value of renewable fuel credits given by the US government for imported biofuels was initially pitched this year as part of Trump’s “America First” energy agenda, aimed at boosting US domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign supply, and was meant to take effect Jan. 1.

The EPA is now weighing a plan to delay implementation of that proposal until 2027 or 2028. The EPA said it is reviewing public comments ahead of issuing final rules in the coming months.

Big Oil, led by the influential American Petroleum Institute industry group, had argued that limiting credits for foreign supply could constrain availability and push fuel prices higher…an outcome the White House is eager to avoid as affordability remains a central political concern heading into next year’s congressional elections.

Under the originally proposed cuts in credits for imports, the EPA would allocate only half as many tradable renewable fuel credits to imported biofuels and biofuel feedstocks as to domestic ones. The shift has significant implications for bio-based diesel, which relies on imports to meet federal mandates.

CBOT soybean oil futures came price pressure upon release of the story…though should be encouraging news for Canada s canola sector.

The decision on a possible delay is one of several high-profile regulatory moves by the administration that the fuel industry is closely watching. Others include finalizing 2026 US biofuel blending mandates, determining whether to allow year-round sales of gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, and deciding how or whether to require larger refiners to compensate for exempted gallons under the small refinery waiver program.

– S&P Global sees US farmers planting less corn, more soy in 2026… S&P Global Energy projected that US farmers would reduce US corn plantings in 2026 by 3.8% compared to 2025 while increasing soybean plantings by 4%, the firm said in a note released to clients on Tuesday. The firm, which changed its name last week from S&P Global Commodity Insights, projected US 2026 corn plantings at 95.0 million acres, down 3.7 million acres from 2025, and soybean plantings at 84.5 million acres, up 3.4 million on the year. S&P projected total US wheat plantings for 2026 at 44.0 million acres, down 1.3 million from 2025. The firm estimated winter wheat plantings for harvest in 2026 at 32.4 million acres, down from 33.153 million a year earlier. S&P said its forecasts were based on the results of a monthly survey of farmers and agribusinesses.

– US peace plan calls on Ukraine to give up land, receives negative reaction from Kyiv… The Ukrainian government is mulling to a 28-point peace plan, described as heavily tilted in Moscow s favour, that was drafted by US and Russian officials without Kyiv s involvement. The chief architects of the new proposal are Steven Witkoff, the personal envoy of US President Donald Trump, and Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian businessman with close ties to President Vladimir Putin. A source in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky s office said the plan was delivered to Zelensky only after Witkoff and the Russians agreed on it and that the White House was now urging Zelensky to accept it.

The early reaction from Kyiv was negative, as the plan is regarded as giving the Kremlin much of what it has sought since Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago. While the full 28 points have not been published, Axios and the Financial Times have reported that the document calls for Ukraine to concede the entire provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia…including Donetsk territory that is still under Ukrainian control…and would see the Ukrainian military capped at roughly half its current size.

The proposal would reportedly freeze the front line in the latter two regions, and the US would recognize Russia s claims to the annexed territories…including Crimea, which Moscow seized in 2014…though Kyiv would not be required to do the same.

Other key gains for Moscow, if the proposal were to become reality, include making Russian an official language of Ukraine, and reversing restrictions placed on the Russian Orthodox Church since the February 2022 start of the invasion. The Ukrainian military would also be forced to give up certain categories of long-range weapons. Western troops would also be prevented from deploying to Ukraine as postwar peacekeepers.

The overall proposal is only positive for Russia, a source in Zelensky s office said.

– Thousands protest against state takeover of palm oil plantations in Indonesia... Thousands of residents in Indonesia’s palm oil belt Riau province came out in protest on Thursday against the takeover of their plantations by the government’s forestry task force, an organiser told Reuters. President Prabowo Subianto’s forestry task force, which includes military personnel and state prosecutors, has this year launched a crackdown on palm oil plantations they say have been running illegally in forest areas, an operation that the palm oil industry says could disrupt global supplies. Around 9.1 million acres of plantations have been seized, with nearly half transferred to the emerging state-run firm Agrinas Palma Nusantara, transforming it into the world’s largest palm oil company by land size.

At a rally near the local prosecutor’s office in the provincial capital of Pekanbaru, around 2,800 protesters called on the task force and Agrinas to halt all their operations in Riau and explain the legal basis of the takeover.

Indonesia is the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, while Riau is the country’s top province when it comes to total plantations.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 47.03 points on Wednesday to settle at 46,138.77m while the S&P 500 gained 24.84 points to close at 6,642.16. Early Thursday, the December Dow Jones Futures are charging up 464 points.

Global stock markets are rising in relief after AI chip giant Nvidia released forecast-topping earnings yesterday and as traders eyed delayed US jobs data later this morning. Canada s TSX futures are also pointed higher after gaining yesterday.

Nvidia Corp. delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast…Q3 revenue surged 62% year-over-year…more than expected. The company pushed back on the idea that the artificial intelligence industry is in a bubble, easing concerns (for now) that recently spread across the tech sector. The outlook signals demand remains robust for Nvidia s artificial intelligence accelerators, the pricey and powerful chips used to develop AI models. Nvidia has faced growing fears that the runaway spending on such equipment isn t sustainable.

It s fair to say that Nvidia s results have completely changed the market mood and pushed out any bubble fears for another day, Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

And just out this morning…the delayed US Bureau of Labor Statistics report shows the American economy a much greater than expected 119,000 jobs in September. The trade consensus estimate for September was 50,000. The US unemployment rate was reported at 4.4%.

The December US Dollar Index is down 0.071 at 100.080. The Canadian dollar is steady against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.25 US cents.

Jan crude oil futures are up $0.47 at US $59.72/barrel. Oil prices are higher this morning after falling yesterday as a bigger-than-expected draw in US crude stockpiles offset speculation that a US push to end the Russia-Ukraine war may add barrels to an amply supplied market.

NG analysts cautioned in a note that Ukraine was unlikely to back the Trump administration plan as it seems to overtly favour Russia. But signs that the US is still trying to work on a deal has eased some concerns over further sanctions against Russia and also how strongly current curbs will be enforced.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 2 to 5 cents/bu higher this morning, led by the front month contracts…trying to regain some of Wednesday s weakness. Bean futures yesterday sold down 15 to 17 cents on the front months. Soymeal futures are hovering around $2/ton higher to start this morning after plunging $7 to $9/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are 18 to 28 points weaker right now after dropping 100+ points on Wednesday. Bean oil plunged yesterday on a Reuters report indicating the EPA may delay their 50% cut to credits on imported feedstocks for US biofuel production from the previously proposed 2026 start date (report above in the news section).

USDA reported another 330,000 tonnes of US soybeans sold to China via their daily announcement system on Wednesday morning. That followed the 792,000 tonnes from Tuesday and takes the total known sales to China to 1.35 MMT.

But last month, Washington said China would buy 12 MMT of US soybeans by year-end (Dec 31). Recent deals…while welcomed…remain WELL below that volume, and the trade questionings whether China will meet the deadline. Frankly, there isn t much financial incentive to make additional purchases, since China already has its necessary supplies. Plus, is Beijing needs to buy soybeans, they can get it cheaper from Brazil.

Chicago corn futures are trading fractionally to a penny higher this morning. The corn market finished Wednesday s session under pressure, as contracts were down 7 to 8 cents across most months.

For the week ended Nov 14, US ethanol production averaged 1.09 million barrels per day, up from last week’s 1.08 million and compared to last year’s 1.11 million, according to the Energy Information Administration. US ethanol inventories ended the week at 22.3 million barrels, slightly above the 22.2 million from a week ago, but below 22.6 million a year ago.

Traders are monitoring the mostly favorable near-term conditions in Argentina and Brazil, with some concerns about the chance for a drier pattern in December.

US wheat markets are mixed to higher… Minnie spring wheat futures are a penny either side of unchanged, but HRW is 2 to 4 cents higher and SRW wheat is up 2 to 6 cents. The US wheat complex was weaker across the three exchanges yesterday…spring wheat futures finishing down 1 to 3 cents at the close. Talk of a possible US peace deal being forced on Ukraine that favors Russia pressured wheat markets.

Argentina and Ukraine reportedly have the lowest wheat prices on the export market this week, with France, Germany, and Russia not that far behind.

There s rain in the forecast for parts of the US winter wheat region, which could improve conditions as the crop approaches dormancy. Traders are also monitoring the early harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, along with winter wheat conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

The recent uptrend in wheat futures feels a little precarious as market bulls face fundamental headwinds. The world wheat balance sheet shows ample production and ending stocks. The high end of Prairie cash milling wheat bids is around $7.80/bu for spot, as much as $8.00/bu for deferred delivery positions (biased to western regions)…and more towards the $7.40 to $7.50/bu at the lower priced eastern areas. All things considered, might be time for an incremental sale in the cash market to reap what small gain we have seen since harvest.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures on Wednesday fell for the first time this week, as declines in the Chicago soy complex were too much to overcome. Soybeans and soyoil both fell notably yesterday amid uncertainty over whether China will hit its US soybean purchase target of 12 MMT by the end of this calendar year…seems doubtful.

Profit taking also weighed on both canola and soybean futures during the day. European rapeseed and palm oil were both weaker as well, along with crude oil.

On the other side, the Canadian dollar posted declines.

January canola lost $6 yesterday to close at $650.20/tonne, and March fell $5.50 to $662.90.

For today… canola futures are up around $2/tonne this this morning…reclaiming some portion of yesterday s decline. Benchmark Jan canola futures are up $2.10 at $652.50/tonne…still holding above nearby support at the recently cleared $650 mark, but still restrained by immediate overhead resistance at the convergence of its 100- and 200-day moving averages ($661).

Our canola and the CBOT s soyoil market are still evaluating yesterday s Reuters article suggesting the Trump administration is considering delaying a plan (for a year or two) that reduces US biofuel blending credits for imported feedstocks due to pressure from the oil industry. As that would increase the competition for US soyoil for blending purposes, bean oil prices fell hard yesterday and are modestly weaker again this morning. No official word from the Trump people confirming or denying the report, but the US soy industry got spooked. Oddly enough, the news…if true…might be a bit friendly for Canada s canola sector.

Meanwhile, the canola trade maintains wishful thinking that some resolution of trade difficulties between Canada and China may be on the horizon to restart canola export business to the Asian giant. Presently, China has a tariff of nearly 76% on imports of Canadian canola seed and 100% duties on the canola oil and meal. That s been China s tit-for-tat response countering Canada s 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

The Canadian government commented recently that some progress has been made in talks with China, including hints that tariffs on those electric vehicles are in play. However, I suspect any deal won t be reached until well into the New Year…but guessing politics is pure speculation.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/