AM Market Report – October 1, 2025
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
Coming out of Tuesday s Truth and Reconciliation holiday, ICE canola futures continue to trend lower…currently down another $4/tonne…now at their lowest levels since late March.
Chicago soybean futures also continue to weaken, down mostly 5 cents this morning…testing below $10.00/bu on the front month Nov contract (6-week low) and approaching the bottom end of a well-established sideways trading range.
CBOT corn futures are losing 2 to 3 cents right now…hitting a four-week low and dropping below its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages this week.
US wheat markets are also weaker this morning…winter wheats down 4 to 6 cents, while spring wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower. These are fresh contract lows all around.
A mostly bearish USDA quarterly US grain stocks report on Tuesday delivered a body blow to US grain futures markets, inflicting fresh technical damage that suggests more downside price pressure in the near term. Tuesday’s US September 1 stocks estimates were bearish for corn and wheat, neutral for soybeans.
The US government shutdown that started overnight adds some additional risk aversion to the general marketplace keeping speculative grain bulls in check.
In Other News
– US government shutdown begins… A midnight US government funding deadline passed with no agreement among Congress members, triggering the government’s first shutdown in nearly seven years and shuttering the American federal government, aside from essential duties. The shutdown could be prolonged due to a stalemate over health care subsidies, with the White House’s budget office ordering agencies to begin executing their plans for a funding lapse. The shutdown would disrupt the jobs of hundreds of thousands of Americans, upend many public services and could have economic effects, including a potential spike in the unemployment rate and delays in key economic data, including this Friday s US Labor Department employment situation report for September.
There was no clear path out of the impasse, while agencies warned that the 15th government shutdown since 1981 would halt the release of a closely watched September employment report, slow air travel, suspend scientific research, withhold pay from US troops and lead to the furlough of 750,000 federal workers at a daily cost of $400 million.
On the ag front…the closure means USDA will not be working on shifting US tariff dollars to crop farmers, delaying any financial aid package. US farmers will have to sell their newly harvested crops to raise revenue for November rents and prepay for 2026 seed, fertilizer, and chemicals.
– USDA quarterly grain stocks report… The USDA on Tuesday projected US corn and soybean ending stocks at the end of the last marketing year (Aug 31) were below a year ago.
US corn was reported at 1.532 billion bu, above pre-report expectations after a modest upward revision to the 2024 crop and with slower fourth quarter usage, but still 13% under this time last year. 2024 US corn production was revised to 14.892 billion bu, 25 million more than the prior estimate, with planted and harvested area also greater than initially reported, while the average yield held steady at 179.3 bu/acre.
Additional old crop carryin supply of corn into what s going to be a record supply for the new crop marketing year for corn will continue to weigh on prices. While new crop exports have started the 2025-26 strong, there s less corn being used for livestock feed. Not only does the US have fewer cattle their feeding…both from a decreasing US supply and no cattle coming north from Mexico to be fed…they are also seeing price pressure in the feed bunk with grain sorghum and wheat. The larger US wheat crop will only intensify that.
US soybean stocks of 316.5 million bu were 8% under a year ago, also seeing a modest increase for the 2024 crop, but with improved fourth quarter demand. US soybean production in 2024 was raised 7.74 million bu to 4.374 billion, with modest adjustments to planted and harvested area and no change to the yield figure of 50.7 bu/acre.
September 1st US wheat stocks were pegged at 2.12 billion bu, 6% more than last year, and the highest to end the first quarter of the US wheat marketing year in five years. Good demand numbers were canceled out by a bigger crop in 2024 than 2023. The USDA sees the 2025 US wheat crop at 1.985 billion bu, less than 1% larger than 2024.
– Canola oil transloading facility opens… Canada has a new way of getting canola oil to markets around the world. DP World in Canada recently opened its $150 million canola oil transload facility at its Fraser Surrey terminal at the Port of Vancouver. The facility is capable of exporting 1 MMT of canola oil per year. DP World is a global logistics company operating 560 offices in more than 70 countries around the world. The company operates five terminals at ports in Canada, with four of them located on the West Coast and the other in Saint John, N.B.
DP World partnered with Richardson International for the latest project. DP World built the transload facility, and Richardson has committed to using two of the three 15,000 tonne storage tanks. Richardson has first rights on the third tank as well, but if it doesn t need it, DP World will find another crusher with which to work.
– Crop consultant Cordonnier says early corn yields disappointing… Noted US crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier said in his weekly report that early US corn yields are generally disappointing, which could be an indication that southern rust has caused more problems than originally anticipated. The disease moved into the US Midwest in July when hot and humid conditions were favorable for rust development. The disease probably caught a lot of people by surprise and even farmers who sprayed for the disease are reporting disappointing yields.
Cordonnier s US corn yield was left unchanged this week at 182.0 bu/acre, with a neutral to lower bias. I was leaning toward lowering the corn yield this week but decided to wait for more corn yields to be reported.
Cordonnier also left his US soybean yield unchanged this week at 52.0 bu/acre, with a neutral to lower bias. For the soybean crop, the drier conditions in the eastern and southern locations are a concern, especially now with warmer temperatures. These conditions should force the soybeans to mature quickly and could result in smaller and lighter seeds than originally anticipated.
– Russian wheat export prices rise… Russian wheat export prices rose for a second week in a row, responding to increased demand from importers while shipments accelerated. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in November was US $230/tonne at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. Prices were supported by a series of international tenders.
The SovEcon consultancy estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at $230-$232/t FOB, compared with $228-$229 at the end of the previous week. SovEcon made its first downgrade to its wheat export forecast for the 2025/26 exporting season on Friday, cutting its projection by about 0.3 MMT to 43.4 MMT after July-September exports slowed by 29%.
Russia’s government has decided to declare a federal level emergency in the Rostov wheat region after bad weather caused massive crop losses, local authorities said on Saturday.
– Brazil’s competition authority allows soy moratorium to continue pending year-end decision… Brazil’s competition watchdog voted on Tuesday to allow the nation’s soy moratorium to continue at least through the end of the year. The 5-1 vote by CADE marked a turnaround after the antitrust agency’s reporting councillor for the case voted against an appeal filed by soybean traders and processors. The two-decade-old private pact seeks to protect the Amazon rainforest by barring soybean traders from buying from farmers who cleared land there after July 2008. However, it represents a potential breach of Brazilian law by reducing competition.
– India s strong monsoon season boosts crop prospects… India has seen its strongest monsoon in five years, lifting prospects for crops such as rice and pulses, and raising hopes that food prices may ease further, according to a Bloomberg report. Rainfall from June to September, which irrigates about half of the country s farmland and is important for the next planting season was 8% higher than the long-term average and the best rainy season since 2020, according to data compiled by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
India is expected to also receive above-average rainfall in October, following above-normal precipitation in September. The country is likely to receive above-average rainfall equating to more than 115% of the 50-year average in October, according to the IMD.
– Argentina’s corn production to rise in 2025/26… Argentina’s 2025/26 corn crop is expected to reach 58 MMT, exceeding the 49 MMT produced in 2024/25, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Tuesday. Soybean output in the 2025/26 season was estimated at 48.5 MMT, the exchange added, a drop from the 50.3 MMT produced the prior season.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 81.82 points on Tuesday to settle at 46,397.89, while the S&P 500 was up 27.25 points at 6,688.46. Early Wednesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 126 points.
Wall Street futures are weaker this morning, while European stock markets are slightly higher and Asian markets mixed as investors assess a US government shutdown that was set to delay the release of key US jobs data. Canada s TSX stock index futures were down.
US government operations shut down at midnight after Congress and the White House failed to reach a funding deal.
US stock index futures wobbled on the news, but analysts say the shutdown may not be overly impactful on markets, aside from the blackout in federal data that could leave investors in the dark about the state of the US economy and by extension, the Federal Reserve s interest rate path.
The December US Dollar Index is down 0.196 at 97.255. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.86 US cents.
Nov crude oil futures are down $0.53 at US $61.84/barrel. Oil prices were weaker as investors weighed potential OPEC+ plans for a larger output hike next month against the prospect of shrinking inventories in the US.
After posting a string of gains last week, crude oil has retraced lower this week so far…triggered by reports of OPEC+ hike and the resumption of Kurdish oil export. But underlying support is drawn from the supply and export disruption in Russia due to continuous and successful Ukrainian assaults.
Meanwhile the Macquarie Group is forecasting crude oil prices could drop into the $50s a barrel range in the coming quarters on expectations for punishing oversupply as output expands. Macquarie analysts remain fundamentally bearish the energy complex due to crude supply growth from OPEC-plus and drillers outside the group, as reported by Bloomberg. A global crude surplus is projected, with Macquarie forecasting a surplus of 4.63 million barrels a day in the first quarter of next year, followed by smaller surpluses in each of the next three quarters.
Last month, the International Energy Agency projected that world output would exceed consumption by an average of 3.33 million barrels a day in 2026. That would be a historic overhang in annual terms.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading 5 cents/bu lower this morning…now at a 6-week low. Bean futures closed 8 to 9 cents lower on Tuesday despite a slightly tighter than expected US soybean stocks total from USDA yesterday. Nov soybeans are down 5.5 cents at $9.96/bu.
Soymeal futures are down mostly $2 to $3/ton this morning after losing $1 to $2/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are up 17 to 28 points this morning after slipping down 20 to 33 points yesterday.
On Tuesday, USDA tallied 316 million bu of US soybeans on hand as of September 1 via their grain stocks report…the first unofficial estimate for 2024/25 ending stocks. That was 9 million bu shy of the average trade guess of 325 million bu, as well as 14 million bu lower compared to the USDA ending stocks estimate from earlier this month. That was also a 26 million bu reduction from last year.
Traders remain concerned about US soy export sales in this young marketing year. Tuesday night, Republican lawmakers said that China won’t begin purchasing US agricultural products anytime soon, according to a closed-door briefing from David Perdue, the US ambassador to China, as reported by Bloomberg.
Chicago corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents/bu lower this morning…a 4-week low. The corn market fell 6 to 7 cents across most contracts on Tuesday, as USDA found a couple (hundred million) more bushels than the trade had expected in the quarterly grain stocks report.
Fundamentally, the corn market must deal with heavy US harvest activity and larger stocks than anticipated. For now, the trade is expecting a record 2025 US corn crop and rising production for Argentina and Brazil.
Yesterday s US grain stocks report showed September 1 overall US corn stocks at 1.532 billion bu. That was well above the average trade guess of 1.336 billion, yet still 231 million bu below last year.
US wheat markets are also weaker this morning…Minnie spring wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower, HRW down 6 cents and SRW wheat losing 4 to 5 cents…posting fresh contract lows all around. The US wheat complex fell across all three markets on Tuesday, as USDA found a few more bushels via the US production number on Tuesday morning. Spring wheat futures posted 6 to 7 cent losses yesterday.
The USDA Small Grains Summary from Tuesday showed US all wheat production tallied at 1.984 billion bu, 63 million bu larger compared to the average trade guess and 57 million above the August USDA crop production report number. US spring wheat production was pegged at 497 million bu, with durum at 86 million bu.
USDA s grain stocks report indicated US wheat stocks at 2.12 billion bu as of September 1…66 million bu above Bloomberg s average survey of analysts at 2.054 billion bu and 128 million bu larger than the same date in 2024.
Weather looks mostly favorable for US winter wheat planting, but some soft red winter areas do need precipitation before the crop heads into dormancy this winter. Activity in some US hard red winter areas has been pushed back by rain. Traders are also monitoring development conditions in Argentina and Australia, along with planting weather in Black Sea adjacent portions of Russia and Ukraine.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures suffered solid losses on Monday as the market bears the brunt of ongoing harvest pressure. Canola market was closed Tuesday.
Aside from a handful of locations which saw relatively light amounts, most of Western Canada was dry over the weekend, allowing for good harvest progress. Mainly dry weather is expected for most of this week and into early next week as well for some areas.
In updated monthly supply/demand estimates released late Friday afternoon, Ag Canada pegged 2025-26 canola ending stocks at a moderately burdensome 2.5 MMT. That is up 300,000 tonnes from the August estimate and about 900,000 higher than a year earlier.
November canola fell $9.40 on Monday to $605.20/tonne, and January lost $9.50 to $618.20.
For today… canola futures continue to trend lower this morning, losing another $4/tonne right now in a push to the lowest levels since late March. Nov canola is down $4.70 at $600.50/tonne, threatening to drop below psychological chart support at $600. The summer downtrend line on price charts remain in force.
Anecdotal reporting suggests strong overall yield prospects as the Prairie canola harvest continues…though not in all areas.
CBOT soyoil futures are slightly higher this morning, but the trend since the July highs remains inexorably lower…currently struggling to maintain support at the technically crucial 50 cent/lbs level. Soybeans are down this morning at 6-week lows.
European rapeseed are lower this morning, testing the low end of its recent range. Malaysian palm oil is slightly higher on concerns over lower production ahead, but the trend has been leaning steadily lower since peaking in mid-August.
To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/
Source: producer.com