This year, the global avocado production has increased strongly again, with large volumes from Peru on the European market at the moment. However, in spite of the large offer, the demand remains present, especially thanks to the promotional actions in supermarkets.
“The market’s natural increase in production is approximately 10%. This is more or less what has been observed in the past three years. But this year, we know that the production will largely exceed this percentage. At the moment, the promotional actions in supermarkets are boosting the sales, despite an offer which is larger than the demand,” explains François Bellivier, development manager at Capexo.
An opportunity for retailers
“What is interesting for the consumer is that we are in the middle of the Peruvian season, so the quality of the fruit is good and prices are relatively attractive. If retailers continue to play the game by offering regular promotional actions, it is very likely that it will gain market shares in terms of consumers.”
The Covid effect is fading this year
On the other hand, the consequences from the sanitary crisis on production and sales are lighter than last year. “The exporting countries have organized themselves to export easily in spite of the pandemic that is still affecting them. So although the volumes are large, they remain quite linear contrary to the pattern we experienced last year, which had led to a catastrophic situation in terms of prices. We are not in the same situation today but July could be a complicated month. Additionally, the reopening of restaurants allows us to sell the small 22 and 24 calibers which do not interest retailers. This way, we can clean up the market and bring it back up.”
A peak of production already reached?
The arrivals are relatively linear but large volumes departed for Europe last week. “It could be the peak of production for this season, as it was announced in the predictions. I hope that we’ve already passed it and that we will not have such volumes for two weeks in a row, which would suddenly unbalance the market.”
Significant disparity in calibers
At the moment, we find origins like Peru, South Africa, Kenya and Colombia on the market. There is therefore a certain heterogeneity in quality but also a significant disparity in calibers.
“At the beginning of the season, we received more small calibers of the type 22, 24 and babies, which are difficult to sell at a good price. The prices for the calibers 16, 18 and 20 remained moderate thanks to the promotional actions in supermarkets. But we are now in the second part of the season and we are receiving many 12 and 14 caliber fruit to which the promotional actions do not apply. We are waiting to see what influence this will have on the market.”
For more information:
François Bellivier
Capexo
Phone: 01 41 73 23 00
Mobile: 06 75 03 76 54
f.bellivier@capexo.fr
www.capexo.fr