Canaryseed sector expects more acres this year
SASKATOON — Canaryseed brokers and traders think acres this year will be larger than Statistics Canada is indicating.
“Definitely acres are going up, not down,” said David Nobbs, a trader with Bornhorst Seeds.
Statistics Canada is forecasting 232,180 acres of the crop, a 20 per cent decrease from last year.
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“I don’t even know why they’re involved in this crop. The numbers that come out are just always wrong,” said Nobbs.
He thinks growers will plant a “solid” 300,000 to 320,000 acres.
Nobbs started sensing in November that acres would be on the rise. With offers of 30 cents per pound, canaryseed is basically double the price of wheat and durum and it uses less urea fertilizer.
And some farmers in eastern Saskatchewan pulled off decent yields last year.
Rayglen Commodities Inc. also thinks the StatCan number is questionable and that acres are likely to increase.
“Saskatchewan Crop Insurance raised its 2024 yield estimates, and with increased acreage and comfortable supplies, current bids may face pressure as seeding progresses and more acreage estimates are released,” the firm said in an April 9 grain market commentary.
Old crop canaryseed was selling for $0.29 to $0.30 per pound at the time the commentary was published, with new crop bids at $0.28.
“Those waiting for mid-30s new crop bids may want to consider locking in current values to hedge against further declines, as the spread between old and new crop has tightened,” said Rayglen.
Nobbs estimates last year’s production at 200,000 tonnes, but there were 60,000 tonnes of carry-in.
Canada’s annual exports used to be in the 150,000 to 160,000 range, but it has been closer to 125,000 to 130,000 tonnes in 2024-25 and the year prior to that.
High prices have resulted in increased production in Argentina and Hungary. Demand has also been hurt by cheap millet prices and high interest rates that have forced buyers to use up some of their stockpiles.
Ample supplies and shrinking exports should result in high carryout stocks at the end of 2024-25.
“If we have a great crop across the province, we would have a bloodbath next year,” said Nobbs.
A lot of farmers are waiting for canaryseed prices to climb back to $0.35 per lb. He thinks their view of the market is tainted by 2021, when prices reached an astonishing $0.57.
Nobbs thinks growers have forgotten that prices hovered around $0.25 for a decade.
Prices have been grinding down every year since 2021.
“I didn’t think we would go below $0.30, but I’m starting to question that now,” he said.
Buyers are telling him they want new crop at a further discount than the current US$15 per tonne.
Seeding is usually a time of strength in the canaryseed market, but he is not seeing that this year.
Source: producer.com