Central Bank of Barbados stands by its economic reviews

By Central Bank of Barbados

In response to a letter published in the Saturday Sun on August 17 questioning the Central Bank of Barbados’ economic report and analysis, the bank reiterates its unwavering commitment to accuracy, transparency, and public trust – values that have been at the core of our institution throughout its 50-plus-year history.

The bank recognises the critical role that accurate, transparent, and objective economic reporting plays in maintaining public confidence, and takes considerable care to ensure that the information we publish is both reliable and reflective of current economic realities.

The economic data, including statistics on economic growth, nominal GDP, inflation, and unemployment, are produced following best practices. While the Barbados Statistical Service (BSS) is responsible for producing much of this data, we rigorously interrogate their submissions to ensure thoroughness and reliability. Our reports are grounded in robust statistical frameworks, supported by rigorous analysis, and are frequently reviewed by international partners such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ensure accuracy.

The 2023 GDP estimates, produced by the BSS and reported by the Central Bank, have been reviewed and validated by an IMF technical assistance mission. This external review provides additional assurance of the validity of our data, which we stand by confidently.

Specific concerns were raised about our estimates of tourism earnings and their contribution to GDP. To clarify, the estimated performance of tourism earnings in the first half of 2024 is comparable to that of the first half of 2007, a period when Barbados also hosted a major international cricket event. In both instances, we observed a significant increase in the ratio of tourism earnings to gross domestic product – rising from 15.9 percent in 2023 to 20.9 percent in 2024. This is consistent with the increase observed from 22.7 percent to 27.5 percent between 2006 and 2007.

Tourism estimates for the first half of 2024 are supported by several key indicators:

• Long-stay arrivals increased by 17.9 percent over the first half of 2023 (source: Barbados Statistical Service).
• Hotel room rates rose by an average of 10 percent, with the second quarter showing a particularly strong increase of 13.3 percent over the second quarter of 2023 (source: Smith Travel Report).
• Cruise arrivals recorded a 17.9 percent increase, with cruise calls rebounding significantly in the second quarter of 2024 (source: Barbados Statistical Service).
• Food prices experienced a general increase of 5.3 percent, indicating that visitors paid more for food, contributing to higher tourism spending.

These data points collectively underpin our estimate of a 4.5 percent economic growth rate for the first half of 2024. We remain confident in our assessment, which reflects a strong recovery in the tourism sector post-COVID, driving economic expansion across other sectors.

We acknowledge the concerns raised by some Barbadians regarding the perceived disconnect between the economic reports and the actual conditions they experience. It is important to understand that while the economy may be growing, it can take time for the benefits of this growth to be felt by every member of society – a phenomenon observed globally, including in advanced economies like the United States. This is why we have consistently emphasised in our economic reviews the need for increased investments to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth that will improve the lives and livelihoods of all Barbadians.

We welcome public discourse on our economic reviews and are committed to engaging with stakeholders to address any genuine concerns. If discrepancies exist between our reported data and independent analyses, we invite dialogue to assess and verify these numbers. Our primary objective is to provide the most accurate and comprehensive picture of Barbados’ economic performance, even as we acknowledge the inherent challenges in producing projections in a dynamic and uncertain global environment.

We assure all Barbadians that there is no intent to manipulate or distort economic data. We will continue to refine our models and methodologies, ensuring that the Central Bank remains a trusted source of clear and accurate economic information.

Once again, we thank you for your concerns and look forward to opportunities to strengthen our processes and our relationship with the public.