Chickpea supplies tight despite large Australian forecast

SASKATOON — All eyes in the desi chickpea market are on Australia, but an analyst warns you shouldn’t trust what you see.

Australia produced a staggering 2.35 million tonnes of the crop last year, up from 513,000 tonnes the previous year, according to AgPulse Analytica.

The firm is forecasting another whopper crop of 2.32 million tonnes in 2025-26, although it could climb as high as 2.7 million tonnes if September weather co-operates, he told delegates attending the Global Pulse Confederation’s Pulses 2025 conference.

Planting is coming to an end, and so far, things are looking great.

Jain is forecasting 2.15 million tonnes of exports, down slightly from the 2.3 million tonnes that will be shipped in the current crop year.

Mitchell Elks, a trader with AGT Food & Ingredients, thinks Jain’s 2025-26 production forecast is optimistic. He is forecasting 1.6 to 1.8 million tonnes, despite the phenomenal moisture profile.

“There are probably no chickpeas that were scratched in dry; they’re all into mud, which is fantastic,” he said.

He agrees that early-season production potential is “phenomenal,” but he doubts there could be two years in a row of ideal conditions throughout the entire growing season.

If that somehow materializes, the crop could reach 2.7 million tonnes.

Jain said the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences’ (ABARES) original estimate for last year’s crop was 1.1 million tonnes.

ABARES has been slow to adjust its number higher. It was still at 1.4 million tonnes in September when yields were already set.

Even the latest government number of 2.2 million tonnes seems low, considering more than two million tonnes of the crop have already been exported.

He said ABARES numbers are inconsistent and unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Another example is its January export number, which was initially pegged at 395,000 tonnes in March. In April it was revised up to 577,000 tonnes.

That would have meant there was no exportable supplies left for the remainder of the year.

The report caused panic in Pakistan, driving prices up 18 per cent in that market.

In May, ABARES revised its January export number back down to 331,000 tonnes.

India is the other market to watch for desi chickpeas, where there is also a huge debate about the production number.

AgPulse is forecasting 10.75 million tonnes in 2025-26, an 11 per cent increase over last year.

Total supply is pegged at 13.7 million tonnes, which will service the 12.5 million tonnes of domestic consumption.

However, consumption would be at least one million tonnes higher if there were more chickpeas around.

Jain is forecasting 1.5 million tonnes of imports, down slightly from the 1.6 million tonnes forecast for this crop year.

Pradeep Jindal, a trader with Jindal Overseas Corp., has a different set of numbers based on a private survey.

He is forecasting 7.4 million tonnes of production, up from 7.2 million tonnes last year.

Jindal expects 800,000 to one million tonnes of desi chickpea imports.

He believes India will extend its yellow pea import duty exemption past the May 31 expiration date. Yellow peas are used as a substitute for desi chickpeas in some Indian recipes.

Sunil Singh, former additional managing director of the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Ltd. (NAFED), says pigeon pea and lentil supplies are comfortable this year.

That will also keep chickpea supplies in a comfortable range because they will not be substituted for pigeon peas and lentils in welfare programs.

He believes the import of yellow peas will also calm the desi chickpea market.

Pakistan is another big player. It is expected to import 730,000 tonnes of all types of chickpeas in 2025-26, up from 410,000 tonnes in the current crop year.

Muhammed Ahmed, a trader with AWAM Group of Companies, said Pakistan’s production has been trending down as the government encourages farmers to devote more land to wheat.

He is estimating 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes of production in 2025-26.

Ahmed is forecasting 400,000 tonnes of desi chickpea imports, up from 200,000 tonnes in 2024-25.

Jain is forecasting Bangladesh will import 340,000 tonnes, up from 225,000 tonnes.

Nathan Tan, a trader with Agrocorp International, thinks that is too high, but a lot will depend on price, which will be dictated by production in Australia and India.

Jain said any weather setback in Australia or India will make price movements much sharper than they have been in the past five years because global supplies of the crop are going to be tight.

Singh said there are “brighter chances” that India will extend the duty exemption on yellow peas and may even contemplate reducing the duty on Russian kabuli chickpeas, which are in plentiful supply.

Elks said India needs at least two million tonnes of production to keep prices steady.

He said if India imports 800,000 to one million tonnes of Australian chickpeas, Pakistan will be “sweating” come September-October due to tight supplies.

Source: producer.com