China Q1 pork output rises 1.2 per cent year-over-year, oversupply pressures persist
Beijing | Reuters — China’s pork output rose 1.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 from a year earlier to 16.02 million metric tons, helped by a rise in breeding sows last year, pre-holiday slaughter and heavier hog weights.
But analysts warn that the sector remains under pressure, with oversupply and slow demand continuing to weigh on prices and profits.
Why it matters: China, a major importer of Canadian pork, currently has 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian pork imports.
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A total of 194.76 million hogs were slaughtered from January to March, a 0.1 per cent increase from the same period last year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.
“This quarter’s output growth is driven by sow expansion last year, albeit slowly, effective disease prevention in the winter and higher slaughter weight,” said Pan Chenjun, a senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank in Hong Kong.
In 2025, production is expected to grow slightly year-on-year, with the sow herd likely to expand slowly as farmers remain cautious amid persistently low prices, while overall demand stays stable, Pan added.
Typically, pork output rises in the first quarter due to increased slaughtering ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.
China, the world’s largest pork consumer, continues to grapple with oversupply as hog production recovers from African swine fever.
The market’s over-expansion, combined with slowing economic growth, has driven down prices and squeezed margins across the livestock sector
In February, an industry researcher warned that China’s pork consumption had likely peaked, advising companies to hold off on expanding breeding sow capacity and instead focus on cutting costs and improving efficiency.
Authorities have taken steps to curb oversupply – Beijing in 2024 lowered the national target for normal retention of breeding sows to 39 million from 41 million.
Despite the challenging backdrop, major producer Muyuan Foods reported a strong turnaround in 2024, posting a net profit of 17.9 billion yuan (C$3.4 billion) after losses the previous year. The pork giant expects Q1 earnings to come in between 4.3-4.8 billion yuan.
At the end of March, the country’s pig herd stood at 417.31 million heads, up 2.2 per cent from a year earlier, the data showed.
— Reporting by Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson
Source: Farmtario.com