Climate Change Calculus: What has changed since 2015?  

– In the power game of climate change, resources and services must be purged from ideological short-sighted and self-interest, in order to transform economic structures for substantial investments and economic growth. ~ Climate Change Calculus, (CCC) 2015.

By Caribbean News Global

TORONTO, Canada – COP28 is scheduled in Dubai, UAE November 30 to December 5 2023. CARICOM leaders are expected to underscore the region’s commitment to global climate action, advocacy at COP28 aims to strengthen international cooperation in the pursuit of a sustainable and resilient future.

Along with the financial demands and more solutions to ensure the viability of agreements and regulatory frameworks reach the intended source, the article Climate Change Calculus, published, Wednesday 16 December 2015, recalls familiarity.

The Caribbean and Small Island Development States (SIDS) are severely threatened by floods, sea level rise, earthquakes, changes in rainfall patterns, droughts, hurricanes, etc. The annual and seasonal effects of climate change on SIDS development have worsened economic and infrastructural, and new forecasts suggest that temperatures could rise by 2.4°C to 2.7°C by the year 2100.

“The evidence of this equation is the ongoing decline in economic development, mounting sovereign debt; joblessness and external pressure, imposed on the economies of SIDS and made possible from the inadequacies of a collective lobby as a bloc to endorse ambitious targets and priorities,” as referenced by Climate Change Calculus, (CCC) in 2015.

Advisably, COP28 will gather leaders to discuss strategies to climate change, subsequent to the commitments made in Paris in 2015, to restrict long-term global temperature rises.

Concerns have been previously expressed at “critical structural issues”  and a “ regulatory framework” to limit arbitration risk, new regulations, and additional contributions will have to be specified.

However, “in the power game of climate change, resources and services must be purged from ideological short-sighted and self-interest, in order to transform economic structures for substantial investments and economic growth,” noted CCC 2015. The gravity of COP28 vs 2015 in Paris to “grand statements by the US promising $3 billion; UK $1.2 billion; France and Germany $1 billion each; Canada $2 billion, genuine commitment to claim achievements on climate change needs to quickly transition research and development to address diverse needs: uncertainty looms on the necessary cash by developed countries to fulfill their obligations. Notably, developing countries’ demands include $100 billion a year. And according to analysts, there’s a 76 percent chance of a recession happening in the next three years.” 

As COP28 commences, CARICOM could potentially include a regional requirement “to engage in proper physical and development planning, watersheds, husbandry and human survivability concurrent with economic change. Establish an engagement protocol, negotiators, leaders and policymakers will need to think about diminishing resources that contribute to poverty, violence and conflict. The risk to growing joblessness and climate change are national security threats. Therefore, these perils require clear incentives that are aligned with the principal aspects of economic development, investment and tax policy, to optimize social, economic and environmental returns.”

“And of equal significance is the responsibility to enact policies that commit public-private partnerships (PPPs) to renewable energy resources and supported by a regulatory environment. Other parts of the equation rely on research and technology, the promotion of renewable energy, such as wind and solar for private and commercial use – including the use of hybrid and electric vehicles to wider operations.” ~ Climate Change Calculus, 2015.

H.E. Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President-Designate for COP28 UAE in his welcome letter said:

“At COP21 in 2015, the world agreed to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels by 2050. To remain on target, science tells us that emissions must be halved by 2030. We only have another seven years to meet that goal. COP28 UAE is a prime opportunity to rethink, reboot, and refocus the climate agenda.

“Working with the UNFCCC Executive Secretary alongside the UN Climate Change High-Level Champion and the UAE Youth Climate Champion, I will strive to build consensus amongst parties to drive climate action. Together, we will prioritize efforts to accelerate emissions reductions through a pragmatic energy transition, reform land use, and transform food systems. We will work to mobilize solutions for vulnerable countries, operationalize loss and damage, and deliver the most inclusive Conference possible.”

Dr Armstrong Alexis, CARICOM deputy secretary-general, on the third regional workshop on the CARICOM core SDGS indicators, said in part:

“We are now at the halfway stage of the 2030 Development Agenda and the UN Secretary General has reminded us that the world is not on track to achieve the SDGs. The recent SDG Summit held in September under the auspices of the UN General Assembly has informed the world that at the midpoint of Agenda 2030, the SDGs are in jeopardy as progress stalls amid the climate crisis, economic fluctuations, conflicts and pandemic aftermath. In our own region, we have faced unanticipated setbacks. Our plans to undertake household surveys and other data-gathering interventions have not materialised and we have faced significant delays in the conduct of the 2020 round of censuses, and whilst it is recognised that availability of data must be juxtaposed against meaningful interventions to ensure no one is left behind, we must emphasise the importance of verifiable data to gauge how well we are doing as we progress towards 2023.

– Saint Lucia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2018–2028

“Many of our member states have submitted voluntary national reports and through this mechanism, gaps have been identified and progress reported. As statisticians, your role is to ensure the availability of the data that informs reporting on progress and in undertaking this responsibility, you can be assured of the support of the CARICOM Secretariat. Our regional statistics programme has been a critical cornerstone of the regional effort and their undertakings have been pivotal in our ability as a Secretariat to update member states and receive approvals through the Council of Human and Social Development. We will continue to provide this support for it is critical that that commitment made in 2015 for a better future for people and planet, continues to be our goal.”

Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) in response to disaster relief, prevention, and reduction received US$100,000 grant from China as part of a wider US$1.0 million support package for CARICOM Member States.

Relevant to Paris 2015, the Climate Change Calculus article noted: “It’s equally reasonable to conclude that without a principal energy policy and a comprehensive plan to deal with climate change that is legally binding with the necessary cash requirements, the game of talk and deflection will become a recurring decimal.”

COP28 Dubai: “In the context of the ongoing political and economic strategy, the catastrophe lies in yet another fun-lime and miserable let-down, nothing short of a crisis of modern civilization. For the Global South, this is the time to decouple to a more equitable framework of global relationships and achievable action plans with a sense of urgency, pace and scale from within. The Global South must now show visionary, collaborative and inclusive leadership capabilities if we are to avert a trajectory that spells omnicide. The ‘just energy transition’ to net zero carbon emissions appears to be in serious jeopardy and must be salvaged to save humanity and planet Earth. COP 28 must reflect that practical difference to attaining a reasonably good outcome,” said a climate change consultant to Caribbean News Global (CNG).