Competitive retail prices bode well for chicken demand in 2025 says FCC

If chicken’s retail price advantage over beef and pork persists, per capita consumption could rise in 2025 despite slowing population growth says a recent sector outlook from Farm Credit Canada.

All of the major proteins have seen major price increases at the grocery store since November 2020, wrote FCC senior economist Graeme Crosbie in a report published Jan. 22.

Retail chicken prices increased 24 per cent, pork rose 14 per cent and retail beef prices jumped 39 per cent.

However, feed prices have declined since early 2023 and this has put downward pressure on farmgate prices for broilers. This eventually trickled down to retail chicken, Crosbie said. Since early 2024, retail chicken prices have declined 3.7 per cent while pork prices rose 2.2 per cent and beef climbed 9.6 per cent.

Read Also

Trump pick to lead USDA eyes payments to farmers to cover trade losses from tariffs

Brooke Rollins, U.S. President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday she would consider direct payments to farmers to offset losses from proposed tariffs, modeled after the approach taken in Trump’s first term.

Statistics Canada put the average retail price of ground beef at $13.03 per kilogram in November 2024, the most recent stats available. In January 2024, it was $11.16 per kg and made steady increases to peak in October at $13.46 per kg.

Beef striploin cuts averaged $27.65 per kg in November, slightly lower than they started the year, after peaking at $32.04 per kg in September.

Beef cattle supplies are the tightest they’ve been in decades. This, paired with U.S. restrictions on imports from Mexico due to a case of new world screwworm in late 2024, has contributed to record high prices on the futures market.

Pork loin cuts averaged $9.27 per kg in November, StatCan said. They began the year at $8.81 and peaked at $9.53 per kg in March. Pork rib cuts averaged $8.43 per kg in November, up from $7.70 last January. They rose as high as $9.57 per kg in March.

StatCan put the average price of chicken breasts at 12.97 per kg in November after starting the year at $13.05 per kg. The price peaked at $13.82 per kg in May. Chicken thighs averaged $11.49 per kg in November, to rise slightly above the January average of $11.39 per kg. The peak price was $12.53 per kg in October.

“We expect retail chicken prices to remain competitive in 2025 as feed costs should remain low given the glut of U.S. corn available,” Crosbie said.

Crosbie said if the relative price advantage continues, chicken consumption per capita could increase, leading to forecasted increase in production of 1.2 per cent. This despite a projected slowdown or even reversal of Canadian population growth.

Different agencies have predicted different scenarios, Crosbie noted — ranging from a decline of 0.2 per cent in 2025 to an average growth rate of 1.7 per cent over the next two years. His production growth estimate was based on a population growth rate of 0.5 per cent in 2025.

In a report released Jan. 23, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer suggested that the federal 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, which reduces targets for permanent and temporary residents, would translate to a 1.4 million fewer residents by the end of 2027.