Crop woes may lead Russia to narrow grain exports

Russia may narrow the spread of its grain exports in the new season due to crop problems, keeping supplies to its traditional markets, VTB board member Vitaly Sergeуchuk said.

Frosts have damaged crops in many regions this year while there has also been a drought in some areas, leading analysts to downgrade forecasts for this year’s harvest.

Agriculture minister Oksana Lut said on Monday that Russia may declare a nationwide emergency possibly, as soon as the end of this week. Emergency regimes have already been introduced in 11 regions.

Read Also

Soil should be a strategic national asset: Senate committee 

The Critical Ground: Why Soil is Essential to Canada’s Economic, Environmental, Human and Social Health report said Canada requires an overarching strategy to collect better data. It says a national soils institute database that shares information with provinces, academics and producers should be established.

Igor Pavensky, Rusagrotrans’ marketing director, estimated that the drought and May frosts affected regions that account for up to 40 per cent of Russia’s winter wheat area.

“It (exports) will probably not be as widespread as in the current season,” Sergeуchuk said, speaking during the St. Petersburg international economic forum.

VTB is one of Russia’s largest lenders to the agricultural sector.

Sergeуchuk said Russia was present in grain markets such as Mexico, Indonesia and Vietnam in the current season where other exporters usually play a big role while adding it would try to ensure it continued to play a leading role in supplying the Global South.

Russian grain exports this season, which will end in less than a month, have already totalled 65 million metric tons to date, with a record 70 million tons expected at the end of the season, Sergeуchuk said.

The Ministry of Agriculture has forecast that in the 2024/25 season grain exports from Russia will amount to about 60 million tons.

Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat.

According to analytical agency ProZerno data, from July to November 2023 the largest importers of Russian grain were Turkey (over 3.5 million tonnes) and Egypt (2.7 million tonnes).

Russia supplied about 700,000 tonnes of grain to Indonesia, nearly 382,000 tonnes to Mexico, and just over 131,000 tonnes to Vietnam. All of them bought wheat, Vietnam also bought corn.

VTB officially exited the grain business a year ago, announcing the sale of a stake in Demetrа, one of the largest grain holdings.