Egg and chocolate prices could upend Easter: Wells Fargo

Dive Brief:

• The price of eggs is set to increase as Easter approaches and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues to impact flocks across a wide swath of the U.S. and Canada, according to a report from Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute released this week. Consumers will continue to see elevated egg prices until producers can rebuild their supply of hens, the report said.
• Chocolate prices are also expected to rise throughout the rest of the year as the price of cocoa “has never been higher,” with the global cost of the crop breaking a previous record high from 1977.
• The higher costs of the Easter staples come after over 82 million flocks, including egg-laying hens, have been culled since the outbreak first began in 2022.

Dive Insight:

Easter, which falls on March 31, was also disrupted by high egg prices last year amid the last HPAI spike. While consumers hoped their wallets could recover this year, the deadly virus is rearing its head again, leading producers to question how long it will impact its flocks.

“With volatile prices, consumers may wish to seek out value-priced alternative proteins, such as poultry, which are relatively affordable when considering inflation dynamics,” Wells Fargo said in the report.

The price of eggs increased 3.4% in January compared to December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.

Last month, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told members of Congress in a hearing that the U.S. is roughly 18 months away from identifying a vaccine for the current strain of HPAI.

The cocoa conundrum will continue to challenge the staple crop for the foreseeable future as changing weather patterns persist, according to the report. Wells Fargo said cocoa trees require a specific climate to thrive, and can only grow within 20 degrees of the equator, making it particularly challenging for producers to grow and susceptible to climate change.

The high cost of the Easter staples comes as food inflation increased 0.4% in January, despite a gradual decline from its overall peak in 2022. Food at home prices in January were 1.2% higher than the previous year, according to BLS.