Opinion: Grain dead end | Farmtario

Glacier FarmMedia – Two years ago, when the coronavirus pandemic swept the world, I didn’t worry about Ukrainian farmers at all. 

They calmly did their work, plowed the land, sowed and harvested. If in Ukrainian cities there was a difficult situation with COVID-19, the farmers almost did not notice it.

A year earlier, Ukraine’s fields were hit by a terrible drought, which caused many farmers to lose their crops. But then agrarian solidarity worked perfectly. Affected companies received free seeds from colleagues, deferred payments from dealers and lucrative loans from the state. Not everyone was lucky then, but the agrarian sector of Ukraine managed to get back on its feet.

I used to think that drought was the worst thing our farmers could face and I could predict that in a year everything would likely be fine again. But now, frankly speaking, I will not dare to make any predictions. The situation with the export of grain from Ukraine has reached a dead end.

Right now, our farmers have at least 12 million tons of grain from last year’s harvest in their granaries. Meanwhile, the harvest of wheat and barley has begun in southern regions, followed by rapeseed and peas and then sunflower. I think this grain will fit into the elevators, but when they start harvesting corn, the real problems will begin. 

Even now, experts say that in some fields, farmers simply will not harvest corn. It will be unprofitable and there will be nowhere to store it.

It is now possible to send something by river through Romania and hubs are hastily built on the border with Poland for transporting grain by road and rail, but we are talking about many tens of millions of tons of grain. This volume cannot be transported in a week or a month or even in half a year. The infrastructure of Poland simply cannot withstand this.

It would be as though farmers on the Canadian Prairies were told they cannot ship their grain to Vancouver by rail. Instead, they have to haul it to the U.S., and then have it taken to Seattle, Tacoma or even further, to get it on a ship.

This is one problem, but the second problem is even worse. Farmers are running out of money, barely enough to harvest and sow winter crops. Getting a loan at more or less normal interest is very difficult. At best, you will be offered 30 per cent per annum. Only a crazy person or a farmer driven to the extreme can agree to take such a loan.

But even if you manage to find money somewhere, it is not a fact that you will be able to buy the required amount of diesel fuel. In Ukraine, for many weeks now there has been an acute shortage of fuel and huge queues at gas stations.

I start every day by trying to find out if they brought gasoline today or not. If I’m lucky, I’ll have to stand for five hours before refueling in order to pour 10 or 20 litres into the tank of my car. 

But if a few litres of gasoline a week is enough for me to be happy, then each farmer needs tens of thousands of litres of diesel fuel to do all the work on time. I can’t imagine how they manage to fuel tractors and combines today.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that the Russians are constantly firing rockets at granaries and other agricultural facilities. It is obvious that Putin is blackmailing the world community with the threat of starvation. At the same time, Russia blames us for this. They say, if we agreed to become slaves or dead men, refusing to resist, then Ukrainian grain would again flow to the world market.

The invaders perfectly demonstrate their grain policy in the occupied regions of Ukraine. The grain is simply taken away from farmers or at best they are forced to give at least half of the harvest. Stolen grain, like metal, is loaded onto ships and sent somewhere for sale.

Against this background, it is surprising to me that our farmers do not lose their presence of mind and manage, despite all this nightmare, to discuss agronomic issues and study modern technologies. Some give their last money for new agricultural machines or even … invest in infrastructure. 

Frankly, it makes me happy. During the four months of the war, I realized one important thing: if you personally do not fight in the army, then you should do your usual work as well as possible and help other people psychologically. We need to support each other and radiate confidence that everything will be fine. It is very important. Even now, a farmer needs to think about how best to grow wheat or corn. It’s their job.

But if they ask me if the situation with the blockade of grain exports in Ukraine may end, I will give only one answer: we need a lot of modern weapons and other support from abroad. We must crush their army, sink their ships, which fire missiles at Ukrainian cities every day, and make this aggressive giant buckle in the legs. 

We have no illusions about the peaceful outcome of this massacre. Moscow no longer hides the fact that the real goal of the aggression is the destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainians as a people, and we are left with no other options but resistance.

And if there are no improvements at the front, then there will be no Ukrainian grain or stability in the global economy. After all, our farmers are now stating that if they fail to unblock the seaports, then they will not sow in the spring. 

They will not, because there is no money and there is no free grain storage. Tens of millions of hectares of perhaps the most fertile land in the world will remain unsown. At best, green manure will be sown there.

Many millions of people around the world will be left without food. In turn, sales of machinery, fertilizers and pesticides will decrease. Logistics companies will suffer big losses. This problem will affect almost all people who are related to the agricultural industry around the world.

But even this is not the most important thing. If Russia strangles Ukraine, the forces of evil around the world will raise their heads. It will become clear that only violence and dictatorship decide everything on this planet. 

Do we want our children to live in such a world?

– Ihor Pavliuk is a Ukrainian agriculture journalist. His article was originally published at the Manitoba Co-operator.