Raboresearch delivers fall agricultural outlook

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – Raboresearch, a division of Dutch multinational financial institution Rabobank, unveiled its Fall Harvest Outlook on Nov. 13. The online presentation provided insights into the 2025-26 marketing year, including some for Canadian farmers.

Raboresearch projected Canadian canola acres for 2025-26 at 22.24 million, while all wheat acres would be at 26.69 million. However, the combined acreage for canola and wheat would be a small decline from 2024-25 despite nearing historic highs.

Grains and oilseeds specialist Andrick Payen said while wheat is being supported by tight global stocks, canola acres are trending sideways amid China’s anti-dumping investigation into the Canadian oilseed.

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“Historically, canola has been a success story. It has been eating a lot of acreage, especially from the grains, and canola has taken a bit of that share,” he added. “As we move into 2025-26, we see that principal field acres in Canada are not really expanding, which means that for canola to grow, it will have to eat some of the acreage from other commodities.”

Payen also mentioned Canadian and U.S. average yields are trending in different directions. Corn and soybeans in the U.S. are expected to reach record-high yields in 2024-25 with wheat close behind. However, average yields for Canadian canola and wheat have seemingly flatlined.

“Moving forward, what’s going to happen in terms of (Canadian) productivity is that we’re not seeing acreage expanding that much and we see yields continue to be a challenge in terms of production,” Payen added.

Average U.S. prices for corn, soybeans and wheat in 2025-26 were projected to be similar to those from 2024-25 at US$3.98, US$10.25 and US$5.55 per bushel, respectively. In Canada, average prices for wheat and canola showed slight declines at C$8.32/bu. and C$14.43/bu., respectively.

Owen Wagner, another Raboresearch grains and oilseeds analyst, said Canadian farm net income growth increased from 2019 to 2022, while it dropped in the U.S. He attributed this divergence to Canada allowing a greater share of land to smaller crops compared to stateside. In 2022, 71 per cent of U.S. acres were devoted to corn and soybeans, while Canada allocated only 57 per cent to canola and wheat.

“It’s incredibly interesting. Soybeans continue to grow in Canada. We’re seeing more of them creep north along the Red River Valley into Manitoba. But 25 per cent of Canadian soybeans were grown for direct human consumption compared to two per cent in the U.S. You get a good idea for the different models both countries have pursued,” Wagner added.

Among other topics, the U.S.’s declining share of the corn, soybean and wheat markets as well as the uncertainty regarding U.S. soybean exports to China were also discussed. The likelihood of the incoming Trump administration imposing tariffs on imports is leading to fears China could levy its own tariffs on U.S. imports, similar to what occurred in 2018.

“As you can see, (the U.S.) recovered, but only when Brazil had a bad crop,” said Raboresearch global strategist Steve Nicholson. “(U.S.) exports for soybeans are okay this year, but not great. This is something we have to be wary of as we go forward into these next four years … Our analyst in China has been very clear that China will retaliate if the U.S. does something specifically towards China versus other countries.”