Tariffs Day 2 | Canadian agriculture remains in crosshairs

The full picture is still unclear as Canada’s agriculture sector continues to assess the potential damage of a tariff war with the U.S.

That kicked of Tuesday, and with just over 24 hours past, it’s still a fast-moving situation.

Here’s what Glacier FarmMedia learned today.

The politics

U.S. President Donald Trump made a lengthy speech to U.S. congress last night, which included a promise of more tariffs on Canadian goods coming on April 2.

Read Also

VIDEO: Canadian Crops Convention offers hope on trade

The Canadian Crops Convention kicked off in Edmonton today, under the shadow of U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs.

“April second, reciprocal tariffs kick in,” Trump said in his address. “Whatever they tariff us, other countries, we will tariff them, that’s reciprocal, back and forth.” He said this included “non-monetary barriers” used by other countries.

On Tuesday morning, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, including $30 billion immediately, with another $125 billion to come in the next 21 days if the U.S. doesn’t back down.

Trump also called the tariffs “great for the American farmer.”

“I love the farmer,” Trump said, “who will now be selling into our home market, the USA, because nobody is going to be able to compete with you.”

“The tariffs will go on agricultural product coming into America and our farmers, starting on April 2. It may be a little bit of an adjustment period.”

According to a Reuters report, in a rebuttal to Trump’s speech, Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin refuted the idea that tariffs will help American agriculture.

“His tariffs on allies like Canada will raise prices on energy, lumber and cars and start a trade war that will hurt manufacturing and farmers,” Slotkin said.

Mexico may be shifting trade toward Canada, according to a Reuters news service report.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Wednesday her country could look to new trade alliances if U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs continue.

With Canada now looking to other export partners, Mexico could represent a new market for Canada’s agriculture and agri-food goods.

Sheinbaum said in a morning press conference Mexico “will reach out to Canada and other nations,” if the tariffs continue.

“It is a very definitive moment for Mexico,” Sheinbaum said. “Our economy is fine, but there will be no submission. … Depending on the circumstances, we will look to Canada and other countries.”

The Carve Out

Meantime, even as agriculture remained in the tariff crosshairs, Reuters was reporting the auto sector was getting a one-month reprieve from tariffs, provided they were following the rules of the CUSMA free-trade deal of 2019. “We are going to give a one-month exemption on any autos coming through USMCA… so they are not at a disadvantage,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Wednesday. “Reciprocal tariffs will still go into effect on April 2.”

Trump raised the idea of a 30-day pause on USMCA-compliant vehicles in return for expanding production in the U.S. during a call on Tuesday with GM CEO Mary Barra, Ford CEO Jim Farley, Ford executive chair Bill Ford Jr. and Stellantis chairman John Elkann, Reuters reported earlier.

Automakers have expressed support for boosting U.S. investment but want certainty over tariff policies as well as vehicle emissions rules before making dramatic changes, two auto sources said.

Such a deal could be an especially welcome development for pickup-truck makers – and for their leading customers, who lean heavily towards Trump’s rural base of Republican voters.

About a third of U.S. pickups sold by American and foreign brands are manufactured in Mexico and Canada, according to research from Global Data.

Labour concerns

The Canadian pork sector, like most of Canadian agriculture, is bracing for the fallout of the U.S.’s decision to go ahead with tariffs against Canadian goods. For the pork market, highly integrated with the U.S., it’s potentially devastating.

Beyond the short-term carnage, however, the industry is also worried about what happens after market chaos smooths out. In particular, it’s worried that any tariff-driven slow down might, in the long run, cause its limited labour pool to evaporate further.

“We’re looking at how do we protect the people that work in the pork industry, the skilled labour that we have working on farms, working in our processing plants sector,” said Cam Dahl, general manager of Manitoba Pork. “How do we protect those jobs, so that when we come into a recovery, when the tariffs are lifted, [those staff are] still there?”

Labour shortages have been a longstanding problem for agriculture in general, including the pork sector, gaps commonly filled through temporary foreign labour or other stop-gap measures.

Dahl said the central question is how to protect producers and others related to the pork sector, but he could not share the details of discussions taking place with the Province of Manitoba or with Ottawa, or what potential relief efforts for producers might include.

“I don’t know the answer to that yet,” Dahl said, though he encouraged pork producers with other questions to contact Manitoba Pork.

On the labour side, Manitoba Pork is discussing the potential of using employment insurance as a tool to protect workers in the pork sector, according to Joey Dearborn, the group’s communications co-ordinator.

Native land

The country’s Indigenous farmers also weighed in on the debate.

U.S. tariffs pose a danger to Indigenous farmers and the economy sovereignty and food security of Indigenous communities, said the National Circle for Indigenous Agriculture and Food (NCIAF).

Such trade barriers “threaten Indigenous agriculture, agri-food businesses, and the broader principles of fair and equitable trade,” NCIAF said in a news release.

NCIAF represents Indigenous agriculture producers and advocates for Indigenous perspectives and participation in the Canadian agriculture and agri-food sector and in key policy discussions.

NCIAF said it will continue to support Indigenous people in agriculture and their food systems. It encouraged Indigenous agribusinesses to continue connecting with each other, sharing concerns with NCIAF, and accessing NCIAF’s resources.

Indigenous peoples have played a critical role in trade and economics throughout North American history, NCIAF said. Without them and their knowledge of food systems, plant growth, and weather patterns, the first settlers wouldn’t have survived.

“Together, we will continue to strengthen our food sovereignty and economic resilience,” NCIAF said.

In Ontario

In the heart of southern Ontario’s farm country, U.S. tariffs dominated the atmosphere of the London Farm Show, which run from March 5 to 7, as exhibitors and attendees sought to mitigate the potential impact on the agriculture industry.

Rick Beunen, business development representative with Topigs Norsvin said he expects customers will feel the impact of tariffs in the near future. “We have to export 30,000 hogs a week. Our customers are going to be receiving less for their pigs when they cross the border,” he said.

Priyanka Gupta, outreach coordinator with Guardian Network, noted the current economic climate paired with the impact of tariffs can be tough on mental health. She said it’s normal to feel anxious right now and it’s important to “manage news consumption.”

Gupta suggested that taking breaks from the news can help manage anxiety and the feeling of being overwhelmed, and added that it’s important to take advantage of the available support resources.

Public comment

As Canada prepares for the worst when it comes to trade with the United States, forging stronger trading relationships with alternative markets is a top priority.

Farmers should take their fate in their own hands and ask their producer groups and associations to become more active on market access initiatives.

In fact they could be an important part of Canada’s ‘soft power’ efforts in a rapidly changing world the Western Producer editorial board argued.

Scott Garvey, Glacier FarmMedia machinery editor, also weighed in on the chaotic approach the U.S. was taking to the automotive sector, and how it might apply to farm machinery too.

The decision follows a pattern that has left trade relations between the United States, Canada and Mexico — along with most of the rest of the world — languishing in chaotic uncertainty, he wrote.

He added that the one-again-off again nature of the tariff war may be as much about keeping people on edge and Trump’s name in the headlines.

Staying positive

The Canadian Crops Convention kicked off in Edmonton today, under the shadow of U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs.

But it wasn’t all gloom and doom. In fact one of the key organizers, Erin Gowriluk of the Canada Grains Council struck a positive tone, noting that many of the key issues of the grain sector remain aligned throughout North America.

—With files from Reuters.