The Good, Bad, Ugly | The Western Producer

The Good: Spring wheat was the only major commodity to move higher today after oil’s sudden collapse. Although the spring wheat market traded as high as US$6.69 per bushel before dropping to US$6.46 per bushel. This is still up by three cents per bushel on the day which was better than the winter wheat futures. Kansas City futures are down by four cents per bushel, while Chicago wheat futures were down by 14 cents per bushel. Corn futures were also down by seven cents per bushel. This made spring wheat futures the exception rather than the rule, which was good news – at least for today.

The Bad: The bad news today was the whipsaw action in the crude oil market. Crude oil traded just below the US$120 per barrel level until it dropped to close at US$86.54 per barrel. The drop was good news for energy prices, but there is a rather large fly in the ointment. The close today was still the highest level since September 2023 with the expection of Friday’s close. The bad news is that the drop was caused by a statement from the President of the U.S. which indicated that he felt the war was essentially over. The bad news is that crude oil is pushing external markets lower today.

The Ugly: Canola futured dropped by C$4.40 per tonne to settle at C$C$726.40 per tonne. This is first lower close since the end of February. Canola traded as high as C$758.40 per tonne before dropping off to settle lower on the day. The situation for canola could get ugly in coming days if the war premium in crude oil sells off. Remember that crude oil prices have been the primary driver of the rise in soybean oil prices which have supported canola values. Soybean oil futures were down by 0.72 per cent in today’s trade. This linked trade between crude oil and canola is a concern, especially if crude oil turns ugly.

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