Three years of pain: how inflation drove the UK cost of living crisis | Inflation

After three long years of feeling the pinch, UK consumers finally look likely to get some relief from surging prices on Wednesday, when the Office for National Statistics releases its inflation figures for April. The data is widely expected to show that prices are rising at the lowest rate since summer 2021.

Inflation of about 2% is significant for economists, marking a long-awaited snap back towards the Bank of England’s target. It still means prices are rising for the consumer, but not as steeply as they have been. The last few years of inflation have been the sharpest within at least 40 years, jumping the equivalent of 11 years of normal 2% inflation within just three years, a total rise of 22%. At the same time, real wages are down by 2.3% since early 2021, making it harder for most people to afford their energy bills and the weekly shop.

But not everyone has felt the price rises equally – and not all goods and services have been equally affected. Here, we take a look at notable items that have risen in price since UK inflation was last at 2%, in July 2021, and how the UK compares internationally.

What’s gone up the most?

The consumer price index (CPI) calculates the changes in the cost of a basket of goods and services, from shampoo to secondhand cars to socks. But since July 2021, the items in the basket that have risen the most in price have all been food.

A packet of four frozen beef burgers is now £3.56, up 51.5% from £2.35 three years ago and 1kg of plums has gone up by 53.9% from £2.36 to £3.63 in that time. Meanwhile, the cost of a cucumber has risen by 72.2%, from 54p to 93p, and granulated sugar from 69p, up 72.5%, to £1.20.

The steepest increase by far has come from olive oil, a litre of which costs 120% more in 2024 than it did in July 2021, leaping from £3.65 to £8.04. Partly, this is because of changes in the climate. Olive growers across the Mediterranean faced the hottest summer on record in 2023, affecting crop yields.

Across all categories, food has been a big driver of inflation in the UK. Food costs have risen a third more than overall prices. Again, lower-income households have been hit hardest, as a bigger proportion of their income is spent on food. Trussell Trust, a food bank, delivered more than 3m emergency parcels in 2022-23, up by 50% on 2019-20. As a result, some people are simply eating less. Real consumption of food has fallen by 7% since the first three months of 2021, according to the Resolution Foundation.

Overall, food prices have risen by 31% since March 2021, the Resolution Foundation said, compared with a 90% increase in the price of electricity, gas and other fuels.

What else has risen in price and by how much?

CPI inflation takes into account price fluctuations of a number of different services, from manicures to cremation services, driving lessons and nursery school fees.

In the UK, it is the cost of going out that has hit wallets. A night in a hotel is now £114.63, up 31.8% from £87.97, marking an end to the idea of budget nights away, while an adult theatre ticket has gone up by 32.5% from £28.85 to £38.24. A cigarette is now much more expensive, with 30g of hand-rolling tobacco costing £18.27, up 39.1% from £11.88, thanks to the increase in tobacco duty introduced in 2023.

Home improvements have also become more expensive: gardeners will have noticed the price of potting compost increasing by 28.2%from £4.71 to £6.04, while ceramic tiles are now £18.27, up by 53.8% from £11.88.

Despite the rising cost of recreational activities, from hotels to theatres, households have increased spending on holidays and dining out since the cost of living crisis started to ease. Since the first three months of 2023, household spending on hospitality and air fares is up by 1.1%, according to the Resolution Foundation.

To offset that spending, households appear to be putting off buying bigger ticket or luxury household items such as appliances. Real-terms spending on household appliances fell 18% between the first three months of 2022 and the final three months of 2023, researchers found.

Easing pressure on gas and electricity bills

Of all the pressures on spending, energy has risen the most. At its peak in the winter of 2022, the wholesale price of energy was 10 times greater than it was in 2021. The amount consumers pay for electricity and gas in the UK is set by the energy price cap, which was introduced by the regulator in 2019 to prevent millions of households from being hit by extraordinary increases in bills on variable tariffs.

In the summer of 2021, the energy price cap was set at £1,084 a year for people who pay by direct debit and £1,128 for those on prepayment metres. In spring 2024, it had increased to £1,690 a year for direct debit payers and £1,643 a year for prepayments, an increase of 56% and 45.7%, respectively.

British households fared particularly badly compared with those in other European countries because of the UK’s high dependence on gas, according to the International Montetary Fund. Gas is used to generate 40% of UK electricity and to heat 85% of UK homes.

Poorest households suffered most from the spike in energy prices. Those households with some of the lowest incomes spend about 50% more proportionately on energy and food than those with some of the highest incomes, according to the Resolution Foundation.

Poorer households spend a bigger proportion of their income on utility bills and are more likely to be in fuel poverty, defined as a household spending more than 10% of its income on energy, after housing costs. More than a third of households (36.4%) exceeded this threshold in 2023, up from 27.4% in 2022.

Even though headline inflation has fallen back, household energy bills are expected to stay about 40% higher than they were before Russia invaded Ukraine, and until at least the end of 2024.

How does the UK compare?

UK inflation has been the highest of any country in the G7, and larger than all but Iceland and Sweden in a list of the 23 rich countries for which the OECD produces comparable data.

That is partly to do with the UK’s reliance on food imports. Half of UK food is imported. The price of food can fluctuate with higher transportation costs and any extra fees or delays at the border after Brexit. UK supermarkets also a prices on longer term contracts, meaning some have been stuck with higher prices while European supermarkets have passed on cheaper deals to the consumer.

The UK is also more vulnerable than other countries to energy price spikes thanks to its reliance on gas. Analysts say the energy price cap can create an “artificial bubble” and that European consumers feel the benefit of falling energy prices sooner.

In Germany, inflation was 2.4% in April, up from 2.3% in March, while in France, inflation was 2.4% in April, unchanged from March. A drop in UK CPI inflation to nearer 2% in April would make it one of the lower rates in the Europe.

But few analysts expect the drop in inflation to translate directly into household budgets. GDP will be about 2% lower by the end of next year than was expected before the cost of living crisis, the equivalent of £1,900 a household, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Inflation may be back towards the Bank of England’s target, but until recent price rises are matched with higher incomes, most UK households will face lower living standards for some time to come.