Trump victory puts spotlight on trade

Ottawa — A second term for former U.S. president Donald Trump could mean increased competition and shifting trade priorities for Canadian agriculture, say industry leaders and experts.

Trump’s pledges to boost competitiveness and renegotiate the United States-Mexico- Canada Agreement (USMCA) as well as the potential to impose trade sanctions could spell difficulties for Canadian producers.

Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, said in a statement that Trump’s pledges to boost competitiveness for American farmers could put Canadian farmers at a disadvantage and intensify the pressures on the Canadian ag sector.

Read Also

Argentine beef exports hit highest level in more than five decades

Argentina’s beef exports during the first nine months of this year rose to their highest level in 57 years, as shipments of one of the South American country’s best-known food staples grew among buyers in the United States and neighboring Chile.

Regarding North American trade, Charlebois wrote that “Canada must confront a transactional approach from a Trump-led U.S., one that may bring both predictability and hard-nosed negotiations.”

UMSCA review

J.P Gervais, executive vice-president of Farm Credit Canada, said a new U.S. administration would have meant several changes for agriculture no matter who took office, the most significant being renegotiation of USMCA, which Trump promised to undertake, according to a Global News report.

Major changes to the agreement could have significant impacts on Canadian trade.

A USMCA review is currently slated for 2025 and into 2026, though Gervais said he thought Trump may choose to expedite the process.

Canadian Federation of Agriculture president Keith Currie said Canada should be pushing for the review to be a rundown of what worked and what didn’t rather than a full-scale reworking.

“we’re pushing for our government to remind the U.S. and Mexico … U.S. in particular, that this is a review, not a renegotiation.”

Grain Farmers of Canada executive director Kyle Larkin said he thought a Trump-led USMCA renegotiation could lead to significant problems for Canadian farmers.

“We don’t have to go far back to know what happened in the … original negotiations of (USMCA),” he said.

“Steel and aluminum tariffs for no reason, or you look at the total (unpredictability) that we saw with those negotiations, I think we’ll probably see something similar or even worse going into 2026.

“Canadians need to be significantly concerned … because it’s not only the livelihoods of grain farmers that’s at risk, but it’s really the livelihoods of all Canadians.”

Talk of tariffs

International tariffs are another relevant ag-facing priority in Trump’s presidency.

Currie said one potential challenge for Canada will come if Trump decides a product or industry in Canada has taken away from American producers and levies tariffs.

“I think that’s where our government, whoever our government’s going to be, certainly has a tough job ahead of them.”

National Farmers Union president Jenn Pfenning said she thinks agri-food will not be a top priority for Trump.

“I don’t think that it is particularly useful to speculate much about it,” she said.

“I think that probably food is not the top priority for him in terms of trade negotiations.”

However, she said there is precedent for Trump’s tariffs harming Canadian producers.

“What we’ve seen in the past is that Canada has not been immune to the protectionist tariffs levelled under his administration, so, while we probably will not be bearing the brunt of them, I expect they will have at least some impact on how we’re doing business.”

Added Gervais: “The stance of the U.S. with regards to China and the overall trade policy is different now with Trump in the White House, as opposed to what it would have been under (Democratic candidate Kamala) Harris.”

“You’re taxing exports out of China at a rate of 60 per cent, which is really high. Then you’d expect China to retaliate, which was actually what happened in the first Trump administration.

“That retaliation actually touched on ag commodities, which led to fluctuation in prices that sometimes have not been favourable to Canadian producers.”

Larkin expressed concern over how Trump tariffs could affect Canadian grain farmers, noting that the U.S. is “our largest grain customer.”

“We export … nearly eight million metric tons of grain annually to the U.S., which is worth $9.5 billion. They’re our largest trading partner, and they’re extremely important for the livelihoods of grain farmers.”

He said Trump’s plan for a 10 to 20 per cent tariff “would have a significant impact on Canadian grain and grain product exports to the U.S that could go down the line and have a real impact on the livelihoods of individual grain farmers.”

Trump had not made any announcement about his choice for agriculture secretary as of last week, but Currie said the possibility of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being awarded the role raises concerns.

“From an agriculture standpoint, he’s a little bit out there in left field, so to speak.”

Currie said Kennedy has talked about “how pesticides are ruining our diets, for example, and we need to control that, we need to get away from genetically modified organisms, gene editing, all that.

“If he has influence within the administration, what does that mean going forward for the technologies that we have in agriculture?”

Gervais said he thought one of the main initial adjustments with Trump will be the speed at which certain changes come into effect.

“We know that … they like to move fast and don’t care about consultations,” he said.

“One of the big differences, though, is when it comes to commodities, what will happen between the U.S. and China. That’s, I think, critical for commodity prices, and for sure Canadian producers.”

Farmers keep farming

Canadian Cattle Association general manager Ryder Lee said it would be important to wait see how many campaign promises end up making it into law.

“We’ve been waiting to know, but still we don’t really know,” Lee said.

“There’ll be lots of trying to figure out what is for sure going to happen.”

“We’ll continue to engage and work with our counterparts in the U.S. We buy feeders from them. They buy cattle from us. And so, we have a really integrated beef sector, and it benefits both sides of the border.”

Many changes out of the U.S. remain uncertain, but Pfenning said it will be important for Canadian farmers to keep producing no matter the outcomes.

“Farmers, we keep farming,” Pfenning said.

“Regardless of the politics, regardless of whatever else may be going on in the world, we keep growing food and looking to feed our neighbours and communities.”