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Strong consumer demand might make it tough to find a bargain on your Thanksgiving turkey this year, but don’t expect prices to soar through the barn roof either, say B.C. food experts.
Natalie Veles, executive director of the B.C. Turkey Marketing Board, says B.C. farmers have dealt with many inflationary pressures in recent years — the lengthy disruption of COVID-19, losses from avian flu outbreaks and extreme weather, and a potential rail strike this summer that drove up the price of feed and supplies.
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But those problems are mostly in the rear-view mirror heading into Thanksgiving and Christmas in 2024, so the supply of turkeys this fall is fairly robust and the cost of production has eased.
Veles says that means the farm gate price for live hens — a price set weekly by the marketing board under B.C.’s quota system, similar to how prices are set for commodities like dairy and eggs — is actually down roughly one per cent from 2023.
While that’s a drop of only about three cents per kilogram, it compares favourably with B.C.’s consumer price index, which is up 2.4 per cent in 2024 compared with last year.
But another food expert says B.C. farmers are still in a precarious place, and can’t afford to offer deep sale prices to their customers — even if they sell direct from their farms.
“Many poultry producers are still recovering from the impacts of avian influenza of the past few years,” says Chris Bodnar, an assistant professor of agriculture at the University of the Fraser Valley. “So they are not in a great position to discount prices, even as general inflation stabilizes.
“On the other hand, I understand from some turkey producers that their entire stock is already committed for Thanksgiving and Christmas,” says Bodnar. “It seems that retailers are anticipating high consumer demand, and when they anticipate this growth and buy up the market well in advance of the holiday season, this is unlikely to lead to lower prices at the checkout.”
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Of course, grocers have a lot of say in whether to offer low prices on fresh or frozen birds. While the turkey marketing board regulates the industry and sets prices retailers must pay to farmers, it has no control over what happens in the retail market.
For years in B.C., big chains like Save-On-Foods, Safeway and Real Canadian Superstore have used the Thanksgiving turkey as a “loss leader” — artificially dropping the cost of a bird to as low as $1 or $2 a pound, hoping to lure shoppers to spend liberally on other items at market prices.
One industry sector that’s more freewheeling is small-scale turkey farms.
While the marketing board regulates all turkey operations in B.C., its quotas and pricing minimums don’t apply to farmers with fewer than 300 birds, who can sell at the gate or a farmers market at whatever price they can get.
As for the future of turkey farming, Veles says it would be unwise to treat avian flu as a thing of the past.
“Avian flu isn’t gone, but there are low levels worldwide,” says Veles. “The last detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Canada was in April 2024. There have been detections in the U.S. and other countries since then as the virus has continued to circulate at low levels.
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“B.C. turkey farms are remaining vigilant and adhering to high biosecurity standards to help keep their flocks safe ahead of the fall (bird) migratory period.”
The bottom line for consumers this October? Shop around, look for steep sale offerings from big retailers, or maybe splurge on a boutique bird from a small farm with a direct vendor licence.
Veles says she’s agnostic about her choice of bird, picking her bird for a different producer — whether big, medium and small — each holiday in an effort to try them all.
One thing that never changes: the recipe. Veles swears by an “easy, no-fuss Thanksgiving turkey” recipe at TastesBetterFromScratch.com. It saves the trouble of overnight brining by roasting the bird with an herb garlic butter under the skin that keeps it moist and flavourful every time.
Veles pairs it with her favourite stuffing, made with sausage, apple and cranberry, at allrecipes.com.
jruttle@postmedia.com
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