U.S. winter wheat crop generally looking good
SASKATOON — The winter wheat crop is off to a decent start in the United States.
In its final crop progress report of 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that 48 per cent of the crop was in good to excellent condition for the week ending Nov. 23.
That compares to 55 per cent at the same time last year.
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An estimated 87 per cent of the winter wheat grown in 18 states had emerged, which is right in line with the previous five-year average of 89 per cent.
Why it Matters: The world is already awash in wheat.
Kent Kupfner, executive director of the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee, said conditions are mixed.
Most of the crops in Kansas and the rest of the southern Plains are in good shape. They had adequate moisture and good stand establishment heading into dormancy.
The same goes for Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota.
“No news is good news,” he said.
“I think they’re in decent condition.”
However, it is a different story in Montana, where the crops are average to below average.
“It’s far from good or excellent. It’s fair,” said Kupfner.
In fact, 61 per cent of the crop was rated fair and another 28 per cent fell into the poor category as of Nov. 23.
“It’s concerning,” said Kupfner.
“You want to see your winter wheat in good condition this time of year as it goes into dormancy.”
Montana received some moisture in late July and early August but did not get its typical fall rains in September and October, so the soil is dry.
He estimates that 80 per cent of the state’s wheat is exported, with most of that heading to markets in Asia.
“If you’re a Japanese buyer or you’re a mill in Spokane, Washington, you’re a little concerned about the condition of Montana’s winter wheat crop,” said Kupfner.
However, Montana’s woes are not enough to upset winter wheat fundamentals because it only accounts for about eight per cent of the total U.S. area.
“Right now, I don’t think enough of the winter wheat crop looks poor enough that the market is really paying a lot of attention and has a lot of concerns,” he said.
The USDA usually issues its first winter wheat acreage estimate in January.
Kupfner expects planting in Kansas to be down “a small handful” of percentage points, while Montana’s could drop by five to 10 per cent.
However, Montana’s acres were up 18 per cent last year due to exceptional fall moisture conditions.
Jim Peterson, administrator of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said the fate of the U.S. winter wheat crop will largely depend on snow cover and how cold it gets in the coming months.
It is going to be a La Nina winter, which typically means it is drier and colder in the winter wheat areas.
The polar vortex could deliver some Arctic blasts of cold air.
Current forecasts call for those blasts to be delivered east of the hard red winter wheat growing region, instead hitting the soft red winter wheat region in places like Ohio.
However, those forecasts could easily shift in the coming weeks and months.
“If we get some Arctic blasts, it will drive some market reaction,” said Peterson.
Kupfner said the world doesn’t need more wheat because Russia’s 2025 crop keeps getting larger while Argentina and Australia are harvesting bumper crops.
“Everywhere you look, everybody has got average to above average crops, and we’re building stocks again,” he said.
Source: producer.com