Ukraine grain exports to fall by more than 10 million tonnes due to smaller crop, official says

Kyiv | Reuters — Ukraine’s 2024/25 grain exports are likely to decrease to around 40 million metric tons from almost 51 million tons in 2023/24 due to a smaller harvest, the first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Friday.

“The harvest (of 2024) due to difficult weather conditions is a bit smaller and there are no carryover stocks from previous periods and exports will be around 40 million tons,” Vysotskiy told national television.

Abnormal heatwaves dominated most Ukrainian regions this summer, sharply reducing the yield of corn and other late crops.

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Farm minister Vitaliy Koval told Reuters last month that Ukraine, a grain net-exporter, would keep its exports at a high level despite a smaller harvest and could ship abroad 16.2 million tons of wheat and 21.7 million tons of corn in the 2024/25 season.

Traders exported 18.4 million tons of wheat and 29.4 million tons of corn in 2023/24, also due to high stocks from previous seasons, when key Ukrainian seaports were blocked because of the Russian invasion.

Ukraine is a major global grain grower and before Russia’s invasion in 2022 the country exported about 6 million tons of grain alone per month via the Black Sea. About 85 per cent of Ukrainian food exports now leaves Ukraine from its Black Sea ports.

“This is not a record volume (of 2024 grain harvest) and therefore we are confident that the existing infrastructure … will allow this average volume to be exported,” Vysotskiy said.

Freight

Ukraine has exported 11.7 million tons of grain so far the 2024/25 July-June season, up from about 7.42 million tons over the same period of the previous season, agriculture ministry data showed on Friday.

Traders shipped abroad 1.29 million tons of grain so far in October versus 667,000 tons over Oct. 1-11 last year.

ASAP Agri consultancy said the available tonnage in the Black Sea-Mediterranean basin for October dates continued to shrink and this week charterers encountered an acute shortage of vessels in the coaster segment, particularly for spot dates.

The consultancy said shipowners adopted a “wait-and-see” approach, refraining from offering their vessels too quickly.

Local producers however said that increased attacks by Russia on ships carrying agricultural products in the key Black Sea ports were complicating export logistics and affecting freight costs.

Insurance sources said on Thursday the war premiums had jumped around 30 per cent this week to just over one per cent of the value of the vessel from around 0.7 per cent in early September, which would mean hundreds of thousands of dollars in extra costs.

Vessels calling at Ukraine were at “heightened risk of direct attack by Russian forces,” British maritime security company Ambrey said in a note.

Russian ballistic missiles attacked the Odesa region again on Friday, becoming the fourth such attack since Sunday.

— Additional reporting for Reuters by Anastasiia Malenko