Will your grocery bills spike in 2025?

Predicting food prices is no easy task, but the Food Price Report has a strong track record of accuracy

By Sylvain Charlebois

The 15th annual Food Price Report, set to be released on Dec. 5 by four major Canadian universities – Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia – is one of the most trusted sources for understanding how much Canadians can expect to pay for food in the coming year.

Produced by a team of about 30 researchers, the report is widely recognized for its detailed predictions, helping households, businesses, and policymakers prepare for potential changes in food costs. This year’s report is especially important, as it will offer insights into what 2025 might hold for grocery prices.

Unlike other economic forecasts from banks, consulting firms, or government agencies, the Food Price Report has a unique feature: it evaluates how accurate its previous predictions were. This yearly self-check builds trust and credibility, showing the team’s commitment to transparency and improvement.

Predicting food prices is no easy task. Many factors – like rising energy costs, unexpected weather events, and global conflicts – can create volatility in food markets. Over the past decade, the Food Price Report has been largely accurate in its forecasts, but there have been a couple of notable exceptions. For instance:

2017: The Canadian dollar was unexpectedly strong, global harvests were unusually abundant, and intense competition among retailers pushed food prices lower than predicted.

2022: The war in Ukraine caused massive disruptions in global food supply chains, leading to inflation rates that far exceeded initial estimates.

These examples highlight the complexities of forecasting, especially in an interconnected global economy where unexpected events can quickly reshape markets.

To improve accuracy, the researchers continuously update their models and methods. They use advanced tools and statistical models, such as ARIMA (a popular forecasting technique) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, which analyze trends and relationships among economic factors. Last year, the team also began using artificial intelligence tools like TimeGPT and Chronos, which specialize in time-series analysis. These cutting-edge tools help refine predictions and provide more reliable insights.

By leveraging these advancements, the report serves as a practical tool for consumers trying to budget for groceries and businesses and policymakers looking to make informed decisions about the food supply chain.

Collaboration among the four universities is a cornerstone of the project. Working together allows researchers to learn from past forecasting errors and continuously improve their methods. Their approach emphasizes humility and a willingness to adapt, recognizing that no forecasting model is perfect. By analyzing past missteps, they aim to provide more accurate and useful predictions for the future.

Food prices directly impact everyone, from families struggling with grocery bills to businesses trying to manage supply chain costs. The Food Price Report gives Canadians a heads-up about what to expect, helping them plan better. For instance, if prices for certain items, like vegetables or dairy, are expected to rise significantly, families might adjust their shopping habits, while governments could consider policy interventions to support those most affected.

However, it’s important to remember that no forecast can account for every unexpected event. The report acknowledges this challenge while striving to balance scientific rigour with adaptability. Despite its imperfections, it remains an essential resource for understanding the complex factors driving food prices and preparing for the year ahead.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, a Canadian professor and researcher specializing in food distribution and policy, is a senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain.

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