AM Market Report – May 12, 2026

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain futures markets are generally seeing some upward bounce to start this morning. The US grain markets were generally higher on Monday after the US labeled the Iranian response to its peace proposal as “unacceptable” and said the month-old ceasefire is on “life support”.

Iran essentially slapped US President Trump in the face for calling in its counter-proposal for war reparations from the US, freeing frozen Iranian assets abroad and insisting Iran will indefinitely control the fate of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The US, while it won the initial bombing campaign, is losing the geo-political war. The reaction this morning…pushing crude oil higher, supporting US grains and oilseeds. But strangely, ICE canola fell yesterday.

But ICE canola futures are recovering most of Monday s declines this morning, trading $8 to $9/tonne higher right now. Chicago soybean futures are seeing 3 to 4 cent/bu gains, with the products also higher (oil/meal).

Chicago corn futures are also posting 3 to 4 cent gains this morning.

US wheat markets are also higher… Minnie spring wheat futures are up 10 to 11 cents, HRW rallying 15 to 16 cents, while SRW wheat is up 7 to 12 cents. Wheat traders will also be watching results of this week s annual HRW tour through Kansas sponsored by the US Wheat Quality Council.

The USDA says 57% of US corn has been planted as of Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 52%. 23% of the crop has emerged…up from 13% the previous week. US soybeans are 49% planted, ahead of 36% on average, with 20% of the crop emerged.

US winter wheat conditions have been on a steady decline, currently rated at only 28% good to excellent, which is down from 31% last week and 46% last year. The US spring wheat crop is 53% planted, near the average pace, and 23% has emerged.

In Other News

– Readying for USDA supply/demand report… USDA will release its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE, report at 11 am CT today. It s one of the most closely watched USDA reports of the year because it offers the department s first stab at US new crop balance sheets.

Corn traders are expecting the agency to significantly reduce this year s US corn production level from that seen last year. Traders are also expecting a slight rise in US and global corn stocks, compared to the April USDA S&D report. Soy complex traders expect a modest rise in US soybean production, compared to last year. Traders expect a slight dip in US soybean stocks, but a slight rise in global stockpiles compared to the April USDA S&D report. Wheat traders expect today s report to show a significant decline in US all wheat production this year compared to last year. Global wheat stocks are seen near unchanged from last year.

– Iran war ceasefire grows increasingly shaky after Trump rejects Tehran’s latest proposal… Iran and the United States remain at an impasse over how to end their war while their ceasefire grows increasingly shaky, with the two sides exchanging fire in recent days, ships and Gulf states being targeted, and fighting flaring between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The volatility could tip the Middle East back into open warfare and prolong the worldwide energy crisis sparked by the conflict, with Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and America’s blockade of Iranian ports still in place. US President Donald Trump is expected to use a trip this week to China to urge Chinese President Xi Jinping to pressure Iran into making concessions and end the limbo.

White House said Trump will arrive in Beijing on Wednesday evening for a welcome ceremony, and followed by a bilateral meeting with Xi on Thursday morning. Before returning to Washington, he will have a bilateral tea and working lunch with Xi. While the US CEO delegation accompanying Trump to Beijing has raised hopes for an agreement focused on trade and export controls, market expectations for a comprehensive breakthrough deal remain subdued.

The potential deals that could result from this latest meeting…and the hopes of a broader agreement…are dampened by distractions over the war in the Middle East, decades of mistrust and competition, and the belief by some observers that Xi has the upper hand.

– Cargill CEO to go to China with Trump… Bloomberg is reporting that Cargill s CEO, among other high level corporate executives, will travel to China with US President Trump…adding a constructive agriculture angle to the upcoming US-China discussions. While it does not guarantee new Chinese purchase commitments from the US, Cargill s involvement suggests agriculture trade flows are likely part of the broader conversation, with soybeans, feed grains, ethanol, meat access, and market-access issues all potentially in focus.

For grain markets, the headline is supportive from a sentiment standpoint because it raises hopes that China may be asked to expand or formalize US ag purchases as part of any broader trade framework. The market will now be watching whether the trip produces concrete buying commitments or remains largely symbolic.

– Timely safrinha rains… Brazil s southern safrinha corn crop received a second round of significant rain this past week, following rains earlier this month, which will provide another notable improvement in subsoil moisture, according to World Weather Inc. Corn is in various stages of development with some reproducing and filling making this a critical time for rain to fall in support of good yields, the forecaster noted, with one more round of rain coming this weekend into next week to perpetuate the good production outlook.

In the meantime, eastern, central and northern Mato Grosso and Goias along with northeastern Mato Grosso do Sul have been drying out and are missing most of the significant rain events so far, World Weather said. While there is some potential for rain in drier areas this weekend into next week, confidence in the significance of that rain remains low.

– Trump quickly retreats from plan to lower beef import tariffs… The Trump administration is delaying a just-announced plan to suspend tariffs on imported beef, according to The Wall Street Journal. The plan had aimed to address short-term supply issues in the US beef market by expanding imports and supporting a rebuilding of the country’s domestic cattle herd. However, the delay followed an outcry from US cattle ranchers and some congressional Republicans, as increasing imports comes with political risks, including undercutting American farmers’ business, said the Journal.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 95.31 points higher on Monday to settle at 49,704.47, while the S&P 500 moved up 13.91 points to 7,412.84. Canada s S&P/TSX composite stock index rose 61 points yesterday to end at 34,139.

Global stock markets are easing lower this morning as fading hopes ?of a US-Iran peace deal kept investors on ?edge, while a red-hot rally in chip stocks cooled.

Just out this morning… US consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, marking the highest reading since September 2023, and up from 3.3% in March. US year-over-year inflation was expected to increase by 3.7% in April, according to a Dow Jones consensus. Inflation was expected to have risen for a second consecutive month as the oil shock triggered by the war with Iran continued to push prices higher.

Heightened inflation worries have pushed Wall Street futures are in the red ahead…higher inflation further bolsters expectations the US Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged for a while. Early Tuesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are down 38 points. TSX futures are following sentiment lower.

Markets are also keeping an eye on US President Donald Trump s visit to China, which begins tomorrow, with expectations low for either ?progress on Iran or on the trade front.

Investors should not expect sweeping agreements. A win would mean no new tariffs or export controls, and perhaps small symbolic deals, such as agricultural purchases, aircraft orders, or signals on rare earths, said Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners. These may seem minor, but stability at the margin matters.

The June US Dollar Index is up 0.421 at 98.245. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.98 US cents.

June crude oil futures are up $3.21 at US $101.28/barrel. Oil prices are rising as hopes for a deal to end the US-Israeli war ?on Iran dimmed, bringing supply concerns again to the fore.

Optimism regarding an imminent (peace) deal seems to be fading again and ?if we don t see a deal by ?the end of May, then upside risks for oil prices are definitely on the table, said DBS Bank energy sector team lead ?Suvro Sarkar.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning and trending higher of late. Bean futures saw gains of 2 to 5 cents across the board on Monday. Net new buying was noted, with open interest up 2,921 contracts, heavily in new crop November. Soymeal futures are up $1/ton or less this morning after gaining $1 to $5/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are currently trading 53 to 73 points higher with rising energy markets after ending Monday down 2 to 58 points.

US President Trump and China s President Xi are set to meet Thursday and Friday for a US-China trade summit. There is optimism that discussions could benefit US soybeans, but there are a lot of unknowns, which includes how much of the negotiations will be focused on ag trade. China continues to largely rely on Brazil for its soybean needs due to prices and politics.

The weekly USDA Crop Progress report showed the US soybean crop at 49% planted by May 10, still well above the 36% average pace for this time of year. Emergence was at 20% vs 12% on average.

Export Inspections data showed US soybeans at 655,294 tonnes shipped in the week that ended May 7. That was up 29.6% from last week and nearly double the same week last year. US marketing year shipments have totaled 33.98 MMT since Sept 1, which is down 22.7% yr/yr.

USDA s monthly supply/demand update will be out later today (11 am CT), with a Bloomberg survey of estimates looking for old crop US soybean stocks at 349 million bu, steady with the 350 million bu from April. New crop data will also be released, with traders looking for 366 million bu of stocks for September 1, 2027, and a range of 308 to 479 million bu. The initial soy production number for the US is seen at 4.447 billion bu, with national average yield seen at 53 bu/acre. Such numbers, confirmed, could lean bearish for soybean futures, especially higher production estimates are seen for South America.

Chicago corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher this morning in a continuing rebound in recent sessions. The corn market closed Monday s session with contracts up 3 to 5 cents across most contracts.

USDA Crop Progress data showed the US corn crop at 57% planted as of Sunday, which was 5% ahead of the 5-year average pace of 52%. The crop was also 23% emerged, which is 4 percentage points faster than normal. US Midwest weather for the next 10 days favors corn planting progress.

USDA tallied US corn export shipments at 1.691 MMT during the week ended May 7. That was 17.1% below the week prior but 30.04% above the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 57.18 MMT since Sept 1, which is now 30.49% above the same period last year.

For today s USDA supply/demand report out later this morning, traders are looking for old crop US corn stocks to be estimated at 2.13 billion bu vs 2.127 billion in April. The first 2026/27 US balance sheet will be released, with analysts surveyed by Bloomberg projecting new crop US corn ending stocks at an average of 1.942 billion bu and a range of 1.776-2.11 billion bu. The 2026 US production number is estimated to be tallied at 15.985 billion bu, with an average yield seen at 183 bu/acre.

US wheat markets are higher this morning…Minnie spring wheat futures are up 10 to 11 cents, HRW jumping 15 to 16 cents higher and SRW wheat seeing gains of 7 to 12 cents. The US wheat complex closed Monday with gains across all three markets, with spring wheat closing up 5 to 10 cents yesterday.

USDA s Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 53% planted as of Sunday, now 2 percentage points ahead of the pace from the last 5 years (51%). Emergence was pegged at 23%. The US winter wheat crop was at 61% headed, which was 16 percentage points head of normal. Condition ratings were down 3 points to only 28% good/excellent, with poor to very poor rising to 40%, 3 points higher than last week. Kansas is just 17% G/E, with Nebraska a dismal 5%.

Monday s Export Inspections report showed 511,436 tonnes of US wheat shipped in the week ended May 7. That was 1.78% above last week and 26.23% above the same week last year. The US marketing year total is now 22.875 MMT of wheat shipped since June 1, which is 12.58% above the same period last year.

Later this morning will see the release of the May USDA supply/demand report, with old crop US wheat stocks expected to be down 8 million bu at 930 million bu according to a Bloomberg survey. New crop data will also be released, with US stocks seen at 845 million bu and a range of 759 to 955 million bu. US crop production data will be released, with analysts looking for 1.211 billion bu of US winter wheat production and all wheat estimated at 1.747 billion bu. HRW is estimated at 638 million bu, with SRW at 337 million bu.

Traders continue to monitor weather. While there was some rainfall reported in parts of the central and southern US Plains, it s not likely to drastically improve crop conditions. Dry weather is also a concern for spring wheat in parts of the northern US Plains into the Canadian Prairies.

A major US winter wheat tour gets underway this week in Kansas, and the market will monitor reports from it.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures finished Monday trading in negative territory, while comparable oils were mixed. Canola prices was pressured under the weight of its extremely large net long position, with the oilseed perhaps becoming technically overbought…with neither crushers would buy more nor the spec funds willing to extend positions on the day.

While the war in Iran will still dictate price direction, canola is likely to follow the broader oilseed market direction after the release of the USDA s monthly supply/demand report estimates later this morning.

Crude oil was higher yesterday after the US rejected a peace proposal from Iran on Sunday. However, Chicago soyoil retreated on Monday, European rapeseed made gains and Malaysian palm oil was narrowly mixed.

July canola futures fell $9.70 yesterday to close at $743.40/tonne, while Nov canola dipped $6.10 to $751.80.

For today… canola futures are bouncing up from yesterday s declines…trading $8 to $9/tonne higher this morning. Benchmark July canola futures are up $9.10 at $752.50/tonne this morning…maintaining chart support above its 20- and 50-day moving averages ($742 and $737, respectively).

CBOT soy complex futures are higher this morning (led by soyoil), as are EU rapeseed futures. But Malaysian palm oil was weaker overnight.

We have seen an improved pace to export demand for Canadian canola. Stronger physical movement and renewed international buying interest suggest demand is stabilizing after a slower start to the season.

Market participants are also keeping a close eye on Prairie weather conditions. Recent rainfall in parts of Alberta has provided some relief, but longer-term forecasts point to drier conditions in other growing regions, adding another layer of uncertainty.

The ongoing US-Iran war continues to influence market sentiment. Both sides believe that they can outlast the other, only extending the global energy crisis. Higher-for-longer energy prices are looking more certain all the time, with it likely taking real economic pain to break the stalemate. That continues to be inflationary for almost all commodities, including grain and oilseed markets.

Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/