AM Market Report – May 27, 2026

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GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

After a sharp dip and recovery over the past two trading sessions, ICE canola futures are slipping lower this morning…down mostly $3/tonne currently.

Chicago soybean futures are dipping 3 cents/bu lower this morning, with soymeal slightly higher and bean oil lower. CBOT corn futures are down 2 to 4 cents right now.

US wheat markets are also falling this morning… Minnie spring wheat down 3 to 5 cents, HRW losing 6 to 9 cents and SRW wheat dropping 7 to 10 cents.

Solid losses in the crude oil market are helping to pressure US grain markets so far this week. Energy markets have moved off daily highs on Tuesday amid mixed signals on progress toward a peace deal between the US and Iran.

Growing weather in the Corn Belt also leans price-bearish for corn and beans, with no threatening conditions at present.

With most acres in the ground, US corn and soybean planting is entering the late stages nationwide. The USDA said 86% of US corn had been planted as of Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 83%. Sixty-percent of the crop has emerged, up from 39% the previous week. US soybeans are 79% planted, ahead of 68% on average, with 49% of the crop emerged.

US winter wheat conditions are reported at only 26% good to excellent, down a percentage point from the previous week, down considerably from the 50% that was reported this time last year…and the lowest for this time of year in records dating to 1986. The crop was rated 44% poor to very poor as of Sunday, compared to just 19% a year earlier. The stressed crop conditions reflect the impact of drought in the Plains, the main US winter wheat region. Approximately 70% of the US winter wheat crop is in an area experiencing drought, the government said last week, compared to 21% a year ago.

The US spring wheat crop was 86% planted, ahead of the average pace of 79%, and 56% of the crop has emerged.

Latest on US-Iran war

– Oil dips as US sees progress in Iran deal despite fresh tensions
– Israel increases attacks on Lebanon as US-Iran peace talks crawl on

The US is touting progress toward a peace deal with Iran to end the nearly three-month war, despite fresh hostilities and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz. One contentious issue under discussion is Iran s $24 billion in frozen assets, with Tehran wanting half that amount released upon the signing of an agreement. Obstacles to a US-Iran pact include Tehran s reluctance to allow ships free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s desire for Iran to commit to handing over or destroying its stocks of highly enriched uranium. Those are big obstacles.

In Other News

– Manitoba seeding passes halfway mark; Still lagging… Manitoba seeding has passed the halfway mark, but it remains behind last year and the five-year average. The latest weekly crop report on Tuesday pegged province-wide seeding at 55% complete, up from 37% a week earlier but lagging both last year and the average at 85% and 68%, respectively.

Winter wheat and fall rye crops continued to advance under the warmer weather, while spring wheat seeding reached 75% complete province-wide. Progress remained slowest in the Northwest region, where only about 30% of the crop has been planted due to ongoing wet conditions. Corn planting accelerated significantly across the Southwest, Central, Eastern, and Interlake regions as producers took advantage of improved field conditions.

Canola seeding remained behind normal pace, with less than half of Manitoba s intended acres planted so far. The Central and Eastern regions were reported as the furthest advanced for canola planting. Sunflower seeding also moved ahead steadily, with most acres already seeded in the Central, Eastern, and Interlake regions.

Pulse and soybean planting made particularly strong gains over the past week. Field pea seeding is now nearly complete across the Southwest, Central, and Eastern regions, while soybean planting advanced rapidly, especially in the Central, Eastern, and Interlake areas, where producers pushed to finish seeding during favourable weather windows.

– Canada and India talk trade deal… Canada is working on a comprehensive deal with India to boost trade and investment. This comes as Indian commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal is in the midst of a three-day visit. Goyal met with Prime Minister Mark Carney in the effort to strengthen bilateral ties. Carney says a deal with India would be a game changer for Canadian businesses and workers. The two sides say they hope to conclude a deal by the end of the year.

The talks come months after Canada and India signed a multibillion-dollar Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement aimed at doubling two-way trade by 2030. India s growing economy and strategic interests make it a natural partner for Canada as it looks to diversify beyond the United States.

– Canada not in early CUSMA talks... Canada is monitoring the first phase of the Canada-US-Mexico agreement (CUSMA) negotiations between the United States and Mexico. Canada is not participating in the opening round of discussions. The structure of the talks raises concerns for Canada, particularly because decisions made during US-Mexico discussions could affect Canadian industries.

The US structured the talks. They talk to Mexico first, and talk with us second, said Barry Appleton, an international trade expert and interim director of the Balsillie Legal Advisory Centre. But they re setting the table. And we re not there when they set the table.

The auto sector is one area Canada will be watching closely. The auto discussions in Mexico could significantly impact the auto discussions for Canada, Appleton said. He added that Canada must pay close attention to developments emerging from the negotiations. We have to monitor very carefully what goes on and see where that goes.

Upcoming Canadian negotiations with the US are expected to focus on supply management, provincial economic policies and digital trade. Despite concerns about Canada s position in the talks, Appleton said the country still has leverage. I m a big believer, that we have leverage that we haven t used, he said. The key question, he added, is whether Canada is prepared to use it. Now we need to see, are we going to use the leverage that we have, or are we going to get steam-rolled over?

– French crop concerns… European weather conditions have…and continue to be…good for crop development, but dryness has accelerated in France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and parts of the UK and Germany, said World Weather Inc. The next 10 days will be dominated by warmer-than-usual weather and lighter-than-usual rainfall, with France offering the most concern due to existing dryness. Crop stress is expected during the coming week, but losses to winter, spring and summer crops are unlikely…at least initially. There will have to be some significant rain soon, though, to protect production potentials, World Weather said.

– Sulfur supply woes crimp phosphate production... Much of the focus on the global fertilizer shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has focused on nitrogen, particularly urea. But fertilizer companies have been cutting production of crucial phosphate fertilizers as a result of disruption to the shipment of sulfur through the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times noted in a weekend report. Before the war, around half of the world s sulfur trade passed through the strait. This situation around Hormuz was in the beginning a raw material problem that has turned into a fertilizer supply shock, Faris Derrij, chief executive of OCP Nutricrops, whose parent OCP Group is the world s biggest phosphate exporter, told the newspaper.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 118.02 points on Tuesday to settle at 50,461.68, while the S&P 500 bumped up 45.65 points to 7,519.12. Canada s S&P/TSX stock index shed 177 points yesterday to close at 34,654.

Early Wednesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 102 points. European stock markets are higher this morning, while Asian markets were mixed this morning. TSX futures are trending slightly weaker right now.

Global stock markets are mixed to generally rising this morning as they look for signs of whether a shaky truce between the United States and Iran will be extended.

In Canada, bank earnings season kicks off with results from Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada. As Stefanie Marotta reports, Canada s biggest banks are set to post a round of resilient profits, bucking economic uncertainty and looming trade pressure ahead of talks to renew the CUSMA.

The rally in US stocks remains linked to optimism around artificial intelligence, lower crude oil prices and easing bond yields…spurring traders to grow increasingly bullish. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to rise after the relentless advance in chipmakers fueled both gauges to another round of record highs this week.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.106 at 98.995. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.36 US cents.

July crude oil futures are plunging down $4.43 at US $89.46/barrel. Oil prices are dropping this morning despite renewed hostilities setting back efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. There is no deal to end war in the Middle East, yet traders continue to believe White House declarations that an agreement is close at hand.

Meanwhile, Russia is considering limiting exports of diesel and jet fuel, Bloomberg reported, citing a report by Interfax, as refinery run rates fall to multi-year lows amid Ukraine s escalating attacks. Oil companies were advised to curb sales of oil products to foreign markets following a Tuesday meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on the domestic fuel market, the Russian news service reported, citing several people familiar with the situation. One of the people said that the decision to ban exports of diesel and jet fuel is at an advanced stage, but the date for the ban hasn t yet been set, according to Interfax. If implemented, the ban will add pressure to global oil-product prices as Russia is a key exporter of diesel, selling roughly 40% of its produced fuel to foreign markets, said the Bloomberg report.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are pressing mostly 3 cents/bu lower this morning. On Tuesday, bean futures posted fractional losses in some deferred contracts, with the front months were down as much as 10.5 cents. Soymeal futures are very narrowly mixed to less than $1/ton higher this morning after posting $1 to $3/ton losses on Tuesday. Soyoil futures are down 33 to 54 points right now on the energy market sell-off after pushing 35 to 47 points higher yesterday.

US soy complex futures generally are trending lower off their May highs.

Tuesday s export inspections report showed US soybean export shipments of 571,620 tonnes for the week ended May 21. That was more than double the same week last year and slightly above the previous week. The US marketing year total is now 35.135 MMT of US beans shipped since September 1, which is 20.8% below the same period last year.

The weekly USDA Crop Progress report showed the US soybean crop at 79% planted by May 24, still well above the 68% average pace for this time of year. Emergence was at 49% vs 40% on average. Condition ratings will start being reported next week. There s been plenty of precipitation recently across much of the US Midwest and enough to possibly alleviate some drought conditions.

Argentina s soy harvest is now about 75% complete, and the country has increased its yield expectations. That, combined with an expected record large soybean crop out of Brazil does add some pressure on the global markets.

Chicago corn futures are down 2 to 4 cents/bu this morning. Continued weakness in crude oil is a pressure factor, down another $4/barrel this morning. The corn market was under pressure across the board on Tuesday with contracts losing 1 to 5 cents at the close.

Export inspections data showed 1.582 MMT of US corn shipped in the week ended on May 21. That was up 11.43% from last week and 13.01% higher than the same week last year. US marketing year shipments have totaled 60.18 MMT since Sept 1, which is up 28.03% yr/yr.

USDA weekly Crop Progress data showed the US corn crop at 86% planted as of Sunday, which was 3% ahead of the 5-year average pace of 83%. The crop was also 60% emerged, which is 2 percentage points faster than normal. Condition ratings will start being reported next week. There has been ample precipitation in the last week, and US Corn Belt soil moistures are solid, especially in eastern areas.

The corn harvest in Argentina is about two-thirds complete, and record production is expected. Traders are also watching second crop corn development weather in Brazil.

US wheat markets are sinking this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are down 3 to 5 cents, HRW off 6 to 9 cents and SRW wheat losing 7 to 10 cents. Continued weakness in energy markets is a pressure factor for wheat, and all grain/oilseed markets. The US wheat complex posted mixed trade on Wednesday, with the winter wheats facing some weakness, though spring wheat finished a penny to 4 cents in the green.

USDA inspection data reported US wheat export shipments at 368,455 tonnes for the week ended May 21. That was 55.89% above the week prior but down 34.55% below the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 23.48 MMT since June 1, 2025, which is now 10.17% above the same period last year.

USDA Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 89% planted, 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average pace of 79%. Emergence was pegged at 56%. The US winter wheat crop was at 78% headed, which was 8 percentage points head of normal. Condition ratings were down 1% to only 26% good/excellent. 44% of the crop was rated poor to very poor…up 1 percentage point from the previous week.

Traders are monitoring precipitation in the central and Plains regions of the US. While the moisture is welcome, it s likely to do little for this year s hard red winter crop.

US wheat prices continue to be well above its global competitors, making it a tough buy on the world market. Globally, new crop planting could be limited by high input costs, including Argentina, Australia, and Canada.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended higher on Tuesday, supported in part by a rebound in crude oil prices after fresh US strikes in southern Iran renewed concerns about instability in the Middle East.

Stronger energy markets provided support to the vegetable oil sector and biofuel-linked commodities, helping to boost canola despite weakness yesterday in Chicago soybean futures. Soyoil closed higher, along with European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil.

July canola rallied $14.50 higher yesterday to $750.70/tonne, and November was $13.70 higher at $760.30…both regaining all of Monday s sell-off.

For today… canola futures are trading $3/tonne lower this morning…following the lead of deteriorating US soy complex pricing conditions. EU rapeseed futures are also weaker this morning. The Malaysian palm oil market is closed today for a holiday.

Optimism over a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is dragging energy markets down despite ample evidence to the contrary.

Widely variable conditions across Western Canada raises concerns…from a slow start to planting this year on cooler, and in some cases wetter initial conditions…to now a rapid swing to scorching summer conditions this week. The hot and dry will be welcome in areas needing to get caught up on seeding, but in the dry areas of Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan, it will be anything but. That helped inspire a strong rebound rally in canola on Tuesday that completely recovered Monday’s significant losses.

Where the canola market goes from here is up for debate…but highs for the immediate season tends to come anytime around now for the major grain and oilseed markets…with US markets (soy, corn, wheat) already pulling back from their spring highs now.

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