AM Market Report – May 21, 2026

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are narrowly mixed this morning in minor move. Chicago soybean futures are flat to a penny weaker, with soymeal slightly weaker and soyoil slightly higher.

CBOT corn futures are down 1 t 2 cents/bu this morning.

US wheat markets also lower…Minnie spring wheat futures are losing 3 to 5 cents, while the winter wheats are shedding 3 to 4 cents.

The grain bulls are losing steam late this week but prices are now very near key technical support levels that could stop the bleeding. Technically bearish weekly low closes in the grains on Friday would be ominous signals of seasonal topping patterns. So, one might consider oilseed/grain cash sales on a number of fronts.

Latest on US-Iran war

Crude oil quickly erased overnight losses and rallied this morning on news just out that Iran s supreme leader said he does not want its enriched uranium sent abroad. That runs counter to a main US demand in the current peace negotiations. Iran earlier in the day said the latest proposal from the US had partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, as they seek to turn a fragile ceasefire into a peace deal.

Tehran is in the process of responding to a text submitted by the US, which has narrowed the gaps to some extent, the semi-official Iranian Students News Agency reported on Thursday, without saying where it got the information, Bloomberg reported. Further narrowing requires an end to the temptation for war on Washington s part, said the agency.

The exchange of messages is based on Iran s 14-point text from several weeks ago, the Iranian foreign ministry said separately. That plan essentially suggests a short-term deal that would see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US lift a blockade of Iranian ports, with the warring sides then going into deeper negotiations over Tehran s nuclear program. The developments follow renewed threats of escalation between the US and Iran as their stand-off drags on.

Week 12 of this war and week seven of the ceasefire agreement and we remain stuck in the same old quagmire. Every time energy prices rally higher, driving interest rates higher, Trump says “deal” is announced as being close at hand, triggering a sharp reversal in markets. Then details emerge confirming that neither side is willing to budge on core demands and nothing changes. The latest such cycle is just concluding with Reuters reporting this morning that Iran’s Supreme Leader says enriched uranium must stay in Iran, a non-starter for the US or Israel. That s causing crude oil to rally this morning off it’s overnight lows.

In Other News

– Manitoba seeding jumps to over one-third complete… The pace of Manitoba seeding surged over the past week, although planting progress across the province remains behind both last year and the five-year average. Wednesday s provincial crop report pegged overall seeding at 37% complete as of Tuesday, up sharply from 13% a week earlier, but still trailing last year by 20 percentage points and sitting below the five-year average of 43%.

Variable precipitation was reported across agro-Manitoba over the past eight days, with the Interlake and Northwest regions receiving the heaviest rainfall, the report said. Despite challenging conditions that included strong winds (dust storm which blew across southern Manitoba), cool temperatures, and localized saturation, producers made significant progress with cereals, corn, canola, and pulse crop seeding.

Most cattle remain in confined or winter feeding as slow pasture growth delays cattle s arrival onto grass areas. While a few producers have turned pairs onto grass, supplemental feeding was still required, and most are waiting for pastures to reach the three- to four-leaf stages. Carryover feed supplies are becoming depleted with some producers sourcing or transporting additional feed.

– Cargill locks out 1,700 workers at beef plant… Cargill stopped paying about 1,700 employees at a beef-packing plant in Fort Morgan, Colorado, on Wednesday in an escalating labor dispute, after suspending cattle slaughtering at the facility a month ?ago, the workers’ union said, according to Reuters.

The US beef industry is in a period of upheaval as prices have set records this year, with strong demand from consumers even as the nation’s cattle herd is the smallest in 75 years. Meatpackers are processing fewer cattle due to tight supplies and reporting losses in their beef businesses because soaring cattle costs have outpaced gains from higher meat prices. Cargill and rival JBS, which resolved its own labor dispute last month, have pushed back against employees seeking higher pay. Workers, faced with a ?rising cost of living, have dug in against billionaire owners, said the report.

– US Fed s minutes lean hawkish… A majority of Federal Reserve officials warned the US central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target. Wednesday afternoon s minutes from the last FOMC meeting showed many FOMC members called for the Fed to drop its easing bias and signal its next move could be an interest-rate increase. The vast majority of members noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to the FOMC s 2% annually objective than they had previously expected.

While several policymakers said they believed US rate cuts would eventually be warranted, most of the meeting s participants instead stressed that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2%, minutes of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting showed. It appears incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh does indeed have his work cut out for him.

Interest rates may climb much higher from current levels, a warning to bond investors at a time when yields have touched multi-year highs, says Jamie Dimon, the chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co. They could be much higher than they are today, he noted in an interview with Bloomberg. We may have gone from a saving glut to not enough savings.

Dimon s view comes as long-dated government bonds have come under pressure on concern that higher oil prices may compel central banks to raise interest rates. Yields on 30-year US Treasuries this week rose to levels last seen in 2007, while the rate on two-year notes climbed to the highest since February of 2025.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied up 645.47 points on Wednesday to close at 50,009.35, while the S&P 500 ended up 79.36 points at 7,432.97. Canada s S&P/TSX composite stock index leapt 420 higher yesterday to 34,162.

Early Thursday, the June Dow Jones Futures are down 154 points. European and Asian stock markets were lower overnight. TSX futures are also pointed lower this morning.

Investors continue to mull tentative, though uncommittable signs of progress in Iran peace talks, and forecast-beating results from Nvidia and averted labour action at Samsung had mixed effects on chipmaker stocks.

Some underlying support came by a stronger-than-expected quarterly report from chipmaker Nvidia, whose profit rocketed more than 200% higher in the February-April quarter from a year earlier, while revenue jumped 85%. Nvidia has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the boom in artificial intelligence, thanks to powerful demand for its high-end AI chips.

Samsung Electronics gained 8.5% after its labor union and management reached an agreement late Wednesday that averted a potentially costly strike.

What s less exciting is the macro backdrop. Oil dropped 5% yesterday after Donald Trump said they were finalizing a deal with Iran. But if history is any guide, we ve heard that before. And this morning, it s being reported that Iran s supreme leader was quoted as saying all of Iran s nuclear material must stay in that country under any deal to end the war. That does against Trump s red line. Stock markets turned lower on the news.

The June US Dollar Index is up 0.336 at 99.350. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.62 US cents.

July crude oil futures are up $3.82 at $102.08/barrel. Oil prices are higher this morning as investors factor in more risk premium amid uncertain peace talks between the United States and Iran.

We ve been in this situation multiple times before, which ultimately led to disappointment, ING analysts said in a note on Thursday.

US crude and gasoline stockpiles fell last week as demand remained elevated, while distillate inventories were up, the US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. US crude inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels to 445 million barrels in the week ended May 15, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9 million-barrel draw.

Meantime, virtually all major oil refineries in central Russia have been forced to halt or scale back fuel output following Ukrainian drone attacks in recent days, according to official data and sources. Moscow already introduced gasoline exports ban starting from April until the end of July.

And finally, oil market participants expect Brent crude oil to average US $81 to $100 a barrel over the next 12 months due to demand slowing down to counter supply losses caused by the US-Iran war, according to a Bloomberg survey of energy analysts. A majority of respondents see oil carrying a lasting risk premium of $5 to $15 a barrel for years to come, with a few expecting it to exceed $20, indicating geopolitical risks are seen as persistent. The survey identified “demand destruction” as the most likely mechanism to offset supply deficits over the next year, followed by rerouted trade flows, OPEC+ policy adjustments and releases from strategic reserves. US shale is still expected to add barrels, though few believe production growth will be strong enough to meaningfully rebalance the crude oil market.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading flat to a penny lower this morning. Bean futures closed with 4 to 12 cent/bu losses across most contracts on Wednesday. Soymeal futures are down around $1/ton this morning after slipping a dime to $1.40/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are edging mostly 4 to 17 points higher this morning with crude oil rebound gains after losing 32 to 78 points on Wednesday.

USDA this morning reported US soybean export sales of 351,400 tonnes for the latest week ended May 14 compared to trade expectations which ranged between 150,000 to 450,000 tonnes for 2025/26. New crop sales were pegged at 172,700 tonnes…trade expected 0-200,000 tonnes.

A new estimate from a private analyst pegs the 2026 US soybean acreage at 87.4 million, up by 1.5 million previously. Brazil’s export group, ANEC, raised that country’s soybean exports for May to 16.1 mmt and nearly 2 mmt higher than a year ago.

Traders are watching US planting, expecting generally good progress in many areas. US soy crush margins remain solid, canceling out some of the demand bearishness attached to slow exports. While there has been some expectation China will ramp up purchases of US beans, likely new crop, no new sales have been announced since last week s meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Beijing has purchased soybeans from Brazil this week due to the price advantage.

Chicago corn futures are down mostly 1 to 2 cents/bu this morning. The corn market saw midweek pressure on Wednesday, with contracts down 2 to 9 cents at the close. A wet forecast for much of the US growing region, with a decent portion of the US crop planted, is seen as a pressure factor. The lack of confirmation from China on the White House $17 billion figure from the weekend has also weighed on the market.

The bears are leaning on favorable US planting weather, with over three-quarters of the corn crop seeded. A new estimate from a private analyst pegs the 2026 US corn acreage at 93.8 million, down from 95.3 million previously. That would put harvested acres at 86 million, down from 87.4 million previously. Using a 181 bu/bu yield, he estimates the crop at 15.566 billion bu, down 429 million bu from the prior estimate.

EIA data from Wednesday showed an average 1.111 million barrels per day of US ethanol output in the week ending May 15. That was up 29,000 bpd from the previous week and 75,000 bpd larger than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were up just 5,000 barrels to 24.875 million barrels.

USDA this morning reported US corn export sales of a surprisingly strong 2.125 MMT for the latest week ended May 14, blowing far above trade expectations which ranged between 0.8-1.6 MMT.

US wheat markets are down slightly this morning…spring wheat futures trending 3 to 5 cents lower, while the winter wheats are losing 3 to 4 cents. The US wheat complex also saw mostly weaker trade for the winter wheats on Wednesday, though spring wheat was mixed at the close, with front months down 1 to 2 cents and deferreds steady to 2 cents higher. Geopolitical news has trumped the bullish (poor) US winter wheat crop conditions, pressuring the market.

USDA this morning reported US wheat export sales of 166,300 tonnes for the latest week ended May 14 compared to trade expectations which ranged between 0 to 200,000 MT in old crop wheat business. New crop sales (starting June 1) were pegged at 130,500 tonnes…down at the lower end of trade ideas ranging between 100,000 to 350,000 tonnes.

Rain is expected across much of the southern US Plains over the next week, though it may be too late for much of the HRW wheat crop. It will likely also delay any early harvest progress. Conversely, US soft red winter conditions remain mostly favorable.

The trade is also watching planting in the northern US Plains, Canadian Prairies, Argentina, and Australia, along with winter wheat development weather in Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. Early indications for Australia have a decline in planted area linked to rising input costs. While there are the obvious concerns about North American production. But that is blunted by still ample global wheat supplies.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures moved lower on Wednesday, pressured by a sharp selloff in crude oil markets and weakness across the Chicago soy complex.

Crude oil futures tumbled after comments from US President Donald Trump suggested negotiations with Iran were nearing a final stage, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East…like if anyone can believe Trump. Still, lower crude oil prices yesterday weighed on the broader vegetable oil and biofuel sectors, including canola. At the same time, soybean, soymeal, and soyoil futures in Chicago all retreated as traders questioned the strength of China s apparent commitment to increase purchases of US agricultural products.

July canola dropped $8.50 on Wednesday to close at $749.80, and November fell $5.30 to $758.90.

For today… after tipping lower in the early morning hours trade overnight, canola futures have clawed back up to narrowly mixed this morning. Benchmark nearby July canola futures are now up a modest $0.40 to $750.20/tonne, barely maintaining chart support just above its 20-day moving average ($749). MACD and Stochastics chart indicators are generally suggestive of neutral to bullish indications, though note that seasonally, canola tends to top anytime between now and the third week of June.

Crude oil has rebounded higher this morning as the market basically calls B.S. to Trump s latest hallucinations that Iran is about to capitulate in the war. Ag markets have been slow to respond this morning to the rebound higher energy market trend…but they are creeping up a bit now, led by small vegoil gains, which in turn is edging oilseed markets up.

With general strength in energy markets helping support still supporting very strong canola crush margins at home…maintains nearby strength underlying the Canadian oilseed.

From a chart perspective, canola and soyoil prices charts look very similar. The commodities each hit nearby highs in early May and have been hovering just below those levels in the subsequent weeks.

But note again that canola futures often post seasonal price highs around this time of year…though that serves more of a guide, not a guarantee. Still, it as served as an important indicator in my career of adding both to old crop cash sales and initiating some new crop forward contracting for fall delivery.

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