Mosaic’s phosphate cuts another blow to Prairie farmers

SASKATOON — The announcement that Mosaic Co. is curtailing its phosphate fertilizer production is another blow for farmers, says an analyst.

“It makes a bad situation worse,” said Josh Linville, vice-president of fertilizer with StoneX.

“The phosphate market is in really bad shape.”

Further supply reductions mean there is likely more crop input pain on the horizon.

“As ridiculous as it sounds, we may have already seen the lowest priced phosphate for 2026 barring substantial changes in the global market,” said Linville.

There may not be a price correction until the fall.

“I hope I’m wrong. I want nothing more than to be wrong, but it may not happen,” he said.

Canada does not produce phosphate fertilizer, so farmers are 100 per cent reliant on imports from the United States.

Canada imported an average of 1.46 million tonnes of monoammonium phosphate and 92,027 tonnes of diammonium phosphate in 2018-23 .

Mosaic said the conflict in the Persian Gulf has exacerbated an already stretched global fertilizer market.

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“Raw material prices and availability, especially for sulfur, are forcing us to revisit our production plan,” Mosaic president Bruce Bodine said in a conference call, according to a transcript published by the Globe and Mail.

Phosphate revenue plummets

The company generated US$1.43 billion in phosphate revenue during the first quarter of 2026 but posted a $48 million net loss on that important segment of its business.

That is why the company is taking steps to curtail production of the vital crop nutrient.

The company is slashing production rates in half at its Bartow, Florida, and Faustina, Louisiana, plants and scaling back additional fertilizer production in Brazil.

“This is a temporary move that allows us to limit the need for incremental sulfur at today’s prices and wait until the market normalizes,” said Bodine.

The company is prepared to restart operations quickly when conditions improve.

“We are committed to staying nimble and adapting as needed over the coming quarter,” he said.

Further curtailment may be needed

However, Mosaic is also willing to make further production curtailments if the situation does not improve.

Linville estimates U.S. fall phosphate demand was down 20 per cent and spring was even worse.

“Now the question becomes — can we reduce our application rates even further this coming fall and spring?” he said.

The answer depends on a farmer’s soil type, region and fertilization habits.

“Assuming they’ve had good application rates over the years, they could probably skip a year,” he said.

If they haven’t and they decide to skip or reduce application rates, it will likely result in yield losses.

Bodine said Mosaic will be watching to see when sulfur flows return to normal in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran conflict has worldwide impact

Roughly 20 per cent of global phosphate and half of seaborne sulfur volumes originate in the Middle East.

“When combined with the product that comes out of the Black Sea, nearly half of all phosphate materials have been impacted by the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran,” he said.

China has banned phosphate exports through August, and Mosaic’s competitors have “significantly curtailed” production due to sulfur availability problems.

“To put it bluntly, there is not going to be enough phosphate to meet global demand,” said Bodine.

U.S. soybean farmers facing rising input costs

The American Soybean Association is disappointed by Mosaic’s announcement.

“This unsettling news from Mosaic comes at a time when U.S. soybean farmers are facing major economic headwinds, and neither skyrocketing cost nor the availability of inputs — like phosphate fertilizer — are helping ease those challenges,” ASA president Scott Metzger said in a press release.

“This is the worst time possible for Mosaic to decrease domestic phosphate production. High sulfuric acid costs are disrupting the global fertilizer market, and farmers are ultimately paying the price through higher input costs.”

The group is calling on U.S. president Donald Trump’s administration to help address the high cost and poor availability of phosphate fertilizers by terminating the countervailing duty on imported phosphate fertilizer from Morocco and Russia.

“This ill-conceived duty has increased the cost of phosphate fertilizer for farmers by $6.9 billion over the past five years while commodity prices continue to trend downwards,” said Metzger.

Linville is crossing his fingers that the Strait of Hormuz reopens before the fall fertilizer application season begins.

“I just can’t imagine a world where the strait remains closed for that stinking long,” he said.

“If it does, I think we’ve got far bigger problems to deal with.”