Ukraine to increase grain production, exports
SASKATOON — Ukraine is expected to experience a significant rebound in grain production in 2026-27, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Surface and sub-surface moisture levels are sufficient for spring seeding and farmers have adequate supplies of fertilizers and chemicals.
Canola production is forecast at four million tonnes, a 25 per cent increase over 2025-26 levels.
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However, that forecast was made before the Black Sea region experienced temperatures that dipped down to -2 to -3 C while the canola was in full bloom.
“They might be jumping the gun a little bit,” said Derek Squair, president of Exceed Grain Marketing.
“We’re watching that real close.”
Why it Matters: Ukraine competes with Canada in canola and barley markets.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is forecasting two million tonnes of canola exports from Ukraine in 2026-27, a five per cent decrease from the current year and well below the 3.14 million tonnes shipped in 2024-25.
Exports through the first eight months of the 2025-26 campaign were 1.6 million tonnes, 47 per cent below the same period the previous marketing year.
“(Canola) exports slumped due to lower production volumes combined with growth in domestic crush,” stated the FAS in a recent report.
The European Union has accounted for slightly more than 80 per cent of Ukraine’s 2025-26 canola exports, down from about 90 per cent in previous years.
Squair said Ukraine is a real force in that market.
“They’re absolutely a factor. They’re going to take away some of that European market,” he said.
Canada shipped 1.6 million tonnes of canola to the EU in 2025, which was double the previous five-year average due to the closure of the Chinese market.
However, China is back open for business, so Canada will not be as reliant on the EU.
Ukraine’s grain production (except for wheat) is also expected to rise in 2026-27, according to the FAS:
- Corn is forecast at 31.5 million tonnes (three per cent increase).
- Wheat is estimated at 22.7 million tonnes (five per cent decrease).
- Barley is pegged at 6.1 million tonnes (nine per cent increase).
The Black Sea country is expected to be a much bigger player in grain export markets in 2026-27 due to bloated supplies caused by excess carryout from last year’s crop:
- Corn exports are forecast at 26 million tonnes (a 26 per cent increase).
- Wheat exports are estimated at 15.5 million tonnes (a 19 per cent increase).
- Barley exports are pegged at 4.2 million tonnes (a 133 per cent increase).
Squair said Canada does not compete head to head with Ukraine in the wheat market. Ukrainian wheat typically has a much lower falling number in the 230 to 240 second range, compared to Canada’s 300 to 320 seconds.
Canadian wheat is also typically much higher in protein content.
“We’re almost a different market. They’re a lower quality supplier compared to Canadian wheat,” he said.
Canadian wheat tends to compete more directly with crop from the United States, Argentina and Australia.
However, barley is a different story.
“That’s one we absolutely do compete with (Ukraine) in a bigger way,” said Squair.
“That’s one I think is a big impact.”
It’s because feed barley is so generic, and Ukraine has a logistical advantage into key markets such as Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries.
However, Ukraine’s logistical system has been under siege.
Trade data indicates that average monthly exports of corn, wheat and barley during the first nine months of 2025-26 were 22 per cent lower than the same period the previous year.
The average of all three crops combined was 2.8 million tonnes, down from 3.6 million tonnes.
The FAS said the reduced exports are the result of an interconnected set of factors:
- Russian attacks on Ukrainian transport infrastructure (railways and ports) and the energy grid, has decreased transport capacity from field to export terminal at times.
- A combination of low prices and sufficient on-farm storage capacity prompted farmers to pause actively selling grain.
- EU import quotas forced exporters to return to several traditional markets, resulting in lower farmgate prices.
The EU has accounted for 29 per cent of Ukraine’s total grain export volume in 2025-26, down from 41 per cent the previous year due to its new import quotas for Ukrainian wheat, barley and corn.
Ukraine was forced to ship more barley to China, Turkey, Libya and Saudi Arabia and more wheat to Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia.
Source: producer.com